Flash Flood Warning 16, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

199 
WGUS74 KMAF 102108
FFSMAF

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
408 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

TXC227-335-415-102245-
/O.CON.KMAF.FF.W.0016.000000T0000Z-260510T2245Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Howard TX-Mitchell TX-Scurry TX-
408 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR NORTHEASTERN HOWARD, NORTHERN MITCHELL AND SOUTHERN
SCURRY COUNTIES...

At 408 PM CDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated
thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between
1.5 and 2.5 inches of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts
of 0.5 to 1 inch are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is
ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar and automated gauges.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Snyder, Colorado City, Loraine, Colorado City Airport, Lake
  Colorado City, Lake Colorado City State Park, Inadale, Westbrook,
  Cuthbert, Buford, Ira, Dunn, Winston Field, Vincent and Hermleigh.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.

&&

LAT...LON 3225 10118 3241 10138 3252 10123 3252 10117
      3256 10117 3277 10090 3261 10066 3240 10066
      3218 10109

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR AND GAUGE INDICATED

$$

Lamberson

619 
WGUS74 KMAF 102243
FFSMAF

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
543 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

TXC227-335-415-102253-
/O.EXP.KMAF.FF.W.0016.000000T0000Z-260510T2245Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Howard TX-Mitchell TX-Scurry TX-
543 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 545 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NORTHEASTERN HOWARD, NORTHERN MITCHELL AND SOUTHERN SCURRY
COUNTIES...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

&&

LAT...LON 3225 10118 3241 10138 3252 10123 3252 10117
      3256 10117 3277 10090 3261 10066 3240 10066
      3218 10109

$$

11

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
121 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 118 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

- A 25% to 55% chance of showers/storms over the northeast and eastern
  to central parts of the Permian Basin, and a 15% to 35% chance
  from the Marfa Plateau into Stockton Plateau. A few storms be
  may be strong, with damaging winds and hail the main threats.

- Strong north/northeast winds are forecast for the SE NM plains into
  eastern Culberson County until this afternoon, and continuing
  into the evening for the Guadalupes. Blowing dust will reduce
  visibility. Delay travel through passes if possible.

- Cooler weather to start the week before warmer than average temperatures
  return. Rain chances also develop each afternoon/evening later
  in the week into next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday night)
Issued at 118 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

An active late weekend is shaping up. Much of the weather across
the area will depend on timing of a cold front developing in from
the OK and TX Panhandles into the TX South Plains, and now moving
through the SE NM plains and northern Permian Basin. Behind the
cold front, expect highs ranging from the 70s to mid 80s F. Ahead
of the cold front, southerly winds are still prevalent, which will
allow highs to climb into the 90s F, mid 80s F higher elevations.
Models have trended up regarding highs over the central Permian
Basin, and observations early this afternoon depict increasing
southerly winds shifting to more southwesterly across the central
and eastern Permian Basin (including the Midland-Odessa area) into
Terrell County. This suggests that the cold front may stall
anywhere from there to along the Pecos River today. If this
happens, we are looking at an increased risk for showers/storms
farther west since the dryline will not be pushed as far south and
east. This will allow for a more unstable air mass to sync with
daytime heating, forcing along the cold front, and a northwest to
southeast developing short wave disturbance to aid in formation of
showers/storms over the northern and eastern Permian Basin into
Stockton Plateau and Terrell County by the afternoon/evening. A
25% to 55% chance of showers/storms will be maximized over the
easternmost Permian Basin, while a 15% to 35% shower/storm chances
also exists over the Marfa Plateau into Lower Trans Pecos, and we
even cannot rule out of stray shower/storm over the SE NM plains
into Guadalupes. Assuming a slower passage of the cold front, the
chance of showers/storms over western higher terrain will also be
greater, since forcing along the dryline will be in closer
proximity to daytime heating of elevated terrain. SPC has extended
a MRGL risk from the easternmost CWA along the Pecos River and
western higher terrain of W TX and a SLGT risk into the
easternmost Permian Basin, with damaging winds and hail
highlighted as the main threats in stronger storms. Brief heavy
rainfall is also possible. However, given relatively quick
northwest to southeast motion of storms in high-res CAMs and
deterministic and ensemble models continuing to show rainfall of
only a few tenths of an inch at most except for far eastern
portions of the Permian Basin, we are not expecting widespread
flooding at this time in most locations where heavy rain does
fall. The other story as the short wave develops southeast will be
north/northeast winds over the western higher terrain (especially
Guadalupes), sustained at 35 to 45 mph and gusting to and above
65 mph at higher elevations. Accordingly, a High Wind Warning
remains in effect for the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains and
surrounding passes this afternoon/evening through tonight. A Wind
Advisory has also been issued for the southeast New Mexico plains
into eastern Culberson County until this afternoon, due to
observed strong northerly winds. It is advisable to delay any
travel through passes for the duration of the strong winds if you
are able to. Lows tonight fall into the 50s to lower 60s F, mid to
upper 40s F northern Lea County and Marfa Plateau as the cold
front finally clears the area and CAA sets in.

The beginning of the week is shaping up to be much quieter. Highs
will struggle to reach the mid 80s F, mid 70s F higher elevations
north of the Rio Grande basin, and only rise into the lower to mid
90s F for the warmest spots along the Presidio Valley into the Big
Bend. Surface high pressure behind the cold front develops to the
east of the area during the day, allowing winds to veer back to
southeasterly upslope flow. However, air mass recovery will take
some time to occur, so dew point temperatures remaining in the 40s
and 50s F coupled with highs in the 70s and 80s F will maintain
relatively cool and dry weather for the remainder of the day, giving
way to nighttime lows largely once again in the 50s to lower 60s F.
This cooler weather is virtually certain to be short-lived. Read the
Long Term Discussion for more details.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 118 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

The mid to upper pattern will give way to increased ridging and
large scale sinking motion beneath return southeasterly upslope
flow, allowing warmer than average temperatures to return while
drier conditions characterized by dew point temperatures 30F and
below remain farther west. By Tuesday, highs in the mid 80s to 90s
F will once again be commonplace, with lows falling into the
upper 50s to mid 60s F. Mid to upper ridging over the
Intermountain West expands to the east by mid-week, with a warming
trend in temperatures from Wednesday and Thursday through Friday.
Highs in the upper 80s to 90s F, triple digits along the Presidio
Valley and Big Bend Wednesday persist into Thursday, then rise
into the 90s F and above for all but the highest elevations on
Friday, with triple digits along the Pecos River into the Permian
Basin as well as the Rio Grande basin. To give an idea of how warm
it might get, readings near 110F are indicated over the Big Bend
by the end of the week. Lows likewise climb from lower to mid 60s
F, lower to mid 50s F Marfa Plateau into Lower Trans Pecos
Wednesday night to mid 60s F to lower 70s F, lowers 60s F Marfa
Plateau into Lower Trans Pecos by Friday night. We are still
monitoring the potential for hazardous heat over the area late
next week. However, the building heat will be constrained by
increased rain chances beginning Thursday and continuing into the
weekend. At this time the specifics of what kind of impacts will
accompany shower/storm activity are still unclear, but each day
PoPs 15% to 20% over heated terrain during the day are indicated,
increasing to 20% to 25% over southern and eastern portions of the
area by the end of the weekend into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1140 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Seeing strong north winds across the SE NM terminals behind a
cold front with gusts approaching 50 mph. This front will slide
south affecting KMAF and KFST later this afternoon with similar
winds. TS could affect KMAF, but confidence is to low to add in
the forecast for now. MVFR CIGs will develop behind the front
affecting most of the terminals this evening and overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               56  80  58  92 /  10   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 56  83  59  97 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   63  84  62  90 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            59  83  60  94 /  10  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           56  76  57  86 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    51  81  55  94 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    50  80  48  89 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     57  82  59  92 /  10   0   0   0
Odessa                   57  82  59  92 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     57  83  59  94 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Wind Warning until 4 AM CDT /3 AM MDT/ Monday for Guadalupe
     Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

     Wind Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for Eastern
     Culberson.

NM...High Wind Warning until 3 AM MDT Monday for Guadalupe Mountains
     of Eddy County.

     Wind Advisory until 3 PM MDT this afternoon for Central Lea-Eddy
     County Plains-Northern Lea-Southern Lea.

&&

SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...29

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
153 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

TXZ046-047-101945-
Dawson TX-Borden TX-
153 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT BORDEN AND SOUTHEASTERN DAWSON
COUNTIES THROUGH 245 PM CDT...

At 153 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles east of Lamesa Municipal Airport, or 10 miles east of Lamesa,
moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Lamesa, Gail, Lamesa Municipal Airport, Los Ybanez, Sparenberg, and
Key.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
western Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 3277 10117 3253 10183 3268 10200 3296 10167
      3296 10139
TIME...MOT...LOC 1853Z 234DEG 19KT 3271 10178

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

94