Alert archive / New Mexico / Flash Flood Warnings in 2026

Flash Flood Warning 151, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

July 18, 2026Lea County, New Mexico

NWS Midland/Odessa, TX issued this flash flood warning at Jul 18, 2026, 4:53 PM MDT for Lea County, New Mexico. It was in force for 3 hr. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued
Jul 18, 2026, 4:53 PM MDT (22:53 UTC)
Expired
Jul 18, 2026, 8:00 PM MDT
In force
3 hr
Issued by
NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Area
Storm-based polygon
Flood severity
None

County Lea County, NM

The radar

The Lubbock radar (KLBB), 153 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:53 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

TimeReportWhereRemark
Jul 18, 5:37 PM MDTFLASH FLOODTatum, NMLea County EM reports water covering the road at the intersection of U.S. 380 and SH 206 in Tatum.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched one storm report to this flash flood warning; the first came 44 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Midland Regional, TX (KMAF), launched 12:00Z, 10.9 hours before the alert went out and 181 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Midland Regional, TX at 12:00Z on 2026-07-18Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1524 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Midland Regional, TX at 12:00Z on 2026-07-18The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 115 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1524 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-63 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
864 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
8 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
115 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
213 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

437 
WGUS54 KMAF 182253
FFWMAF
NMC025-190200-
/O.NEW.KMAF.FF.W.0151.260718T2253Z-260719T0200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
453 PM MDT Sat Jul 18 2026

The National Weather Service in Midland/Odessa has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Northern Lea County in southeastern New Mexico...

* Until 800 PM MDT.

* At 453 PM MDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing
  heavy rain across the warned area. The expected rainfall rate is 1
  to 1.5 inches in 1 hour. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 1.5
  inches are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing
  or expected to begin shortly.

  HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
           highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
           drainage and low-lying areas.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Tatum, McDonald, Tatum Airport and Gladiola.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3340 10370 3343 10315 3316 10306 3307 10306
      3307 10338 3311 10368

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
EXPECTED RAINFALL RATE...1-1.5 INCHES IN 1 HOUR

$$

11
3 follow-up statements
532 
WGUS74 KMAF 182343
FFSMAF

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
543 PM MDT Sat Jul 18 2026

NMC025-190200-
/O.CON.KMAF.FF.W.0151.000000T0000Z-260719T0200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Lea NM-
543 PM MDT Sat Jul 18 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR NORTHERN LEA COUNTY...

At 543 PM MDT, emergency management reported flash flooding in Tatum,
at the intersection of highways 206 and 380. The expected rainfall
rate is 1 to 2 inches in 1 hour. Additional rainfall amounts up to 1
inch are possible in the warned area.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Emergency management reported.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Tatum, McDonald, Tatum Airport and Gladiola.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.

&&

LAT...LON 3340 10370 3343 10315 3316 10306 3307 10306
      3307 10338 3311 10368

FLASH FLOOD...OBSERVED
EXPECTED RAINFALL RATE...1-2 INCHES IN 1 HOUR

$$

13
443 
WGUS74 KMAF 190046
FFSMAF

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
646 PM MDT Sat Jul 18 2026

NMC025-190200-
/O.CON.KMAF.FF.W.0151.000000T0000Z-260719T0200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Lea NM-
646 PM MDT Sat Jul 18 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR NORTHERN LEA COUNTY...

At 646 PM MDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy
rain across the warned area. Between 1 and 2.5 inches of rain have
fallen. Flooding impacts will continue, but little to no additional
rainfall is expected. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin
shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Tatum, McDonald, Tatum Airport and Gladiola.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.

&&

LAT...LON 3340 10370 3343 10315 3316 10306 3307 10306
      3307 10338 3311 10368

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

13
287 
WGUS74 KMAF 190207
FFSMAF

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
807 PM MDT Sat Jul 18 2026

NMC025-190217-
/O.EXP.KMAF.FF.W.0151.000000T0000Z-260719T0200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Lea NM-
807 PM MDT Sat Jul 18 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR NORTHERN LEA COUNTY...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

&&

LAT...LON 3340 10370 3343 10315 3316 10306 3307 10306
      3307 10338 3311 10368

$$

13

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Midland/Odessa, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Jul 18, 12:28 PM MDT, 4 hours 25 minutes earlier. Its key messages:

  • Updated at 116 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026
  • Isolated to widely scattered showers/storms could produce locally heavy rain, gusty winds, and frequent lightning this afternoon. Localized flash flooding will be possible in the heaviest storms that develop.
  • Rain chances persist in the forecast through Tuesday evening, mainly favoring the western higher terrain. Localized flash flooding remains of concern in the event of occasionally heavy rainfall.
  • Warmer and drier conditions return areawide by the middle of next week.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 18, 12:28 PM MDT, 4 hours 25 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
128 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 116 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

- Isolated to widely scattered showers/storms could produce
  locally heavy rain, gusty winds, and frequent lightning this
  afternoon. Localized flash flooding will be possible in the
  heaviest storms that develop.

- Rain chances persist in the forecast through Tuesday evening,
  mainly favoring the western higher terrain. Localized flash
  flooding remains of concern in the event of occasionally heavy
  rainfall.

- Warmer and drier conditions return areawide by the middle of
  next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday night)
Issued at 116 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Current satellite and radar imagery shows some leftover cloud
cover from earlier this morning along with developing storms near
the Davis Mountains and Big Bend region. The upper low looks to
be located across the northwest Permian Basin, while other
mesoscale low features are prevalent across portions of west
Texas. These features will continue to supply lift for additional
shower/development. The highest coverage of showers/storms look to
be for areas west of the Pecos River, while slightly less
coverage across portions of the northern Permian Basin and far
southeast New Mexico than previously indicated by high resolution
models. Regardless, there remains the threat of flash flooding in
areas that have received significant rainfall. The 12Z MAF
sounding showed a near-record daily PWAT (1.73"), slow storm
motions, and a moist vertical profile especially in the mid-levels
of the atmosphere. These parameters indicate that showers/storms
will be efficient heavy rainfall producers, therefore, increasing
the flash flood threat. Daytime heating this afternoon will mix
out moisture in the lower levels where forecast soundings show
inverted-V profiles and sufficient DCAPE supporting the threat of
strong downbursts (gusty winds) with the strongest storms.

Tonight, the upper low remains over west Texas and far southeast New
Mexico. Like last night and earlier this morning, remnant
showers/storms are forecast to linger mainly across far West Texas
and the higher terrain. Overnight cloud cover once again will keep
lows in the 60s to mid 70s for most. Tomorrow, the aforementioned
upper low shifts southwest near portions of the Upper Trans Pecos by
the afternoon. A similar setup is in store where scattered
showers/storms are expected across portions of the forecast area
with the highest rain chances over the Davis, Guadalupe Mountains,
and Big Bend region. Heavy rainfall leading to localized flash
flooding with gusty winds remain the primary concerns. Similar
high temperatures are anticipated both today and Sunday ranging
from the 80s to low 90s for most locations.

Lamberson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 116 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

The previous forecast package remains unchanged. The upper-level low
continues to shift west early next week. As a result, additional
chances of scattered rain/storms are forecast each afternoon with
greatest coverage mainly across the higher terrain and far West
Texas through Tuesday. Surface troughing extending from the Rockies
will also provide extra lift for shower/storm development. These
chances will gradually decrease heading into Tuesday as the upper
low pivots farther away from the region. Temperatures are also going
to return back into the 90s for most early in the week. Ensemble
guidance suggest PWAT values ranging between 1-2" across our region
through Tuesday evening, signaling a continued heavy rainfall
threat. Given some areas have already seen several rounds of
rainfall, the risk of flash flooding shall continue to be a
concern in the event of occasional heavy rainfall. The threat
itself is not expected to be as extensive as previous days. By mid
next week, an upper-level ridge becomes the dominant weather
feature favoring much warmer and drier conditions areawide.
Guidance has been trending towards many locations hitting the
triple digits by late next week.

Lamberson

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

VFR has returned to the terminals for now. More thunderstorm
development is likely across the area today, but low confidence
remains in timing and locations due to multiple boundaries around.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               91  70  91  70 /  20  20  30  10
Carlsbad                 95  69  94  70 /  40  20  50  40
Dryden                   94  72  94  73 /  20  10  40  10
Fort Stockton            93  70  91  70 /  50  10  70  20
Guadalupe Pass           87  65  85  66 /  50  30  60  50
Hobbs                    92  66  91  67 /  50  40  40  30
Marfa                    87  60  85  60 /  60  30  70  30
Midland Intl Airport     90  70  90  71 /  40  30  50  10
Odessa                   90  70  90  70 /  40  20  50  10
Wink                     94  70  93  70 /  40  20  40  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...29

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 18, 1:52 PM MDT, 3 hours 1 minute before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
252 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

TXZ278-182030-
Davis Mountains Foothills TX-
252 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN BREWSTER AND
SOUTHEASTERN JEFF DAVIS COUNTIES THROUGH 330 PM CDT...

At 252 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Alpine, moving northeast at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Alpine.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3058 10360 3040 10338 3036 10357 3037 10357
      3038 10359 3036 10360 3035 10363 3045 10372
TIME...MOT...LOC 1952Z 229DEG 5KT 3041 10363

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

11
Special weather statement, Jul 18, 3:03 PM MDT, 1 hour 50 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
403 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

TXZ045-046-182145-
Dawson TX-Gaines TX-
403 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL GAINES AND WEST
CENTRAL DAWSON COUNTIES THROUGH 445 PM CDT...

At 403 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 15
miles south of Welch, or 15 miles west of Lamesa, moving north at 5
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
McKenzie Lake and Punkin Center.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3262 10213 3261 10231 3286 10239 3287 10204
TIME...MOT...LOC 2103Z 180DEG 5KT 3272 10223

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

11
Special weather statement, Jul 18, 3:33 PM MDT, 1 hour 20 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
433 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

TXZ075-082-279-282-182230-
Pecos TX-Terrell TX-Central Brewster County TX-
Lower Brewster County TX-
433 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL PECOS...
NORTHEASTERN BREWSTER AND WESTERN TERRELL COUNTIES THROUGH 530 PM
CDT...

At 432 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 36 miles east of Marathon to 14 miles southwest
of Sanderson to 33 miles southwest of Dryden. Movement was northeast
at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Sanderson, Dryden, and Terrell County Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 2995 10284 3029 10312 3049 10225 3019 10212
      2980 10201 2980 10204 2979 10205 2979 10212
      2982 10218 2985 10219 2984 10222 2988 10232
      2985 10237 2976 10239 2979 10249 2975 10255
      2977 10257 2973 10262 2975 10267 2969 10270
TIME...MOT...LOC 2132Z 240DEG 21KT 3030 10265 2998 10256 2969 10250

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

11
Special weather statement, Jul 18, 4:44 PM MDT, 9 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
544 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

TXZ082-182330-
Terrell TX-
544 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL TERRELL COUNTY THROUGH
630 PM CDT...

At 544 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northwest of Dryden, moving north at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Dryden and Terrell County Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3002 10211 3006 10233 3042 10229 3037 10199
TIME...MOT...LOC 2244Z 190DEG 11KT 3012 10220

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

21

The office that day

Everything else NWS Midland/Odessa, TX issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 17, 6:00 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMAFEddy, Lea45 min
Jul 17, 6:51 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementMAFLea39 min
Jul 18, 5:48 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMAFLea42 min
Jul 18, 5:59 PM MDTFlash Flood WarningMAFLea3 hr

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in New Mexico, 2026Every flash flood warning in 2026

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.