Flash Flood Warning 142, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

463 
WGUS74 KMAF 162309
FFSMAF

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
609 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

TXC043-170130-
/O.CON.KMAF.FF.W.0142.000000T0000Z-260717T0130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Brewster TX-
609 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR SOUTHWESTERN BREWSTER COUNTY...

At 609 PM CDT, local law enforcement reported thunderstorms producing
heavy rain across the warned area. Radar and gauge observations
indicate between 1 and 2 inches of rain have fallen. Flash flooding
is already occurring.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Law enforcement reported.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Persimmon Gap, Big Bend National Park, Santiago Peak, Terlingua
  Ranch Lodge and Terlingua Ranch Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are
potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded
roads. Find an alternate route.

Flooding is occurring or is imminent. It is important to know where
you are relative to streams, rivers, or creeks which can become
killers in heavy rains. Campers and hikers should avoid streams or
creeks.

&&

LAT...LON 2952 10379 2979 10363 2997 10328 2992 10298
      2963 10278 2937 10310 2936 10310 2933 10377
      2947 10379

FLASH FLOOD...OBSERVED

$$

13

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
212 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 209 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

- A risk of significant flooding in heavy showers/storms persists
  across southern and eastern parts of the area through Friday. However,
  not everyone will see rainfall.

- Rain chances expand farther west into western higher terrain by
  early this weekend.

- Rain chances decrease early next week, becoming confined to the western
  higher terrain as highs warm back into the upper 80s to upper
  90s F.

- Triple digits make a reappearance later next week as rain
  chances decrease further to near zero.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday night)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Scattered clouds, continued heavy rain with flash flooding risk,
and cooler than average temperatures will bookend this week as the
mid to upper low over west-central TX begins to develop
west/northwest over the area. The development of the low has been
slower to occur than usual mid-week, with more dry air wrapping
around the western side of the low. This has kept shower/storm
coverage below previous expectations. Additionally, PWATs have not
reached similarly high values as on Monday when a record 1.85"
was recorded on the MAF radiosonde. While PWATs may not again
reach this level, there is expected to be less dry air compared to
mid-week suppressing shower/storm formation today and tomorrow as
the more humid core of the low approaches. On radar imagery late
this morning, moderate to heavy showers/storms were slowly moving
to the west over the northern Permian Basin into SE NM plains and
farther south over the Marfa Plateau and Stockton Plateau, as more
humid air on the fringes of the upper low begins to make its way
over the area. Reports of flooding were received this morning from
Scurry County, where 1"/hr to 1.25"/hr radar rainfall estimates
were estimated from radar, even though storms had only moved over
the area within the last few hours. Consequently, the existing
Flash Flood Watch has been expanded west to include the western
Permian Basin and SE NM plains, and Flash Flood Warnings are in
effect for portions of the Western Low Rolling Plains. Expect a
similar pattern of sudden precipitation bursts and threat of rapid
rises near any bodies of water. As has been the case since the
beginning of this week, dew point temperatures remain in the 60s
F, and temperatures also remain less than 20F higher, mainly in
the 70s and 80s F. This will minimize evaporation of falling
precipitation and keep around the potential for heavy rainfall.

High-res CAMs suggest many showers/storms will be quick to form,
dissipate, and re-form, so exact location and timing of
precipitation will remain uncertain and not all locations will
receive rainfall. However, medium (45% to 60%) 3hr PoPs over the
southern and eastern portions of the forecast area today and
tomorrow with PWATs remaining in the 1.25" to 1.60" range will
allow for efficient warm rain processes. Additionally, NBM still
shows forecast rainfall of 0.50" to 1.00" over Terrell County, and
up to 0.50" from the Permian Basin to the Marfa Plateau and Rio
Grande basin, while ensembles indicate a medium (30% to 50%)
probability of rainfall 0.50" to 1" both today and tomorrow and
higher percentile rainfall up to 1" to 2" today and 1" to 1.5"
tomorrow for the southern and eastern parts of the forecast area.
Motorists and hikers and campers are encouraged to avoid low water
crossings. Make sure to have alerts turned on your device that
receives weather alerts and be prepared to evacuate to higher
ground if Flash Flood Warnings are issued. High temperatures will
stay below average in the 70s and 80s F even down to the Rio
Grande, as clouds and heavy rain limit diurnal heating. Diurnal
range will also be limited, with lows only falling into the upper
50s to upper 60s F as clouds and dew point temperatures in the 60s
F limit overnight cooling. The heavy rain and flash flood risk
will continue this weekend but shift west. More on that in the
Long Term Discussion below.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Mid to upper ridging over the Rockies builds south over the
Southern Great Plains this weekend through next week as the mid to
upper low that has been largely responsible for the unsettled
weather across west-central TX slowly develops west into northwest
MX. As a result, decreasing rain chances are expected over time.
However, at the beginning of the weekend, high (50% to 70%) rain
chances will still be found during the day from the Presidio
Valley into the Marfa Plateau and Guadalupes, with medium (35% to
50%) shower/storm chances over much of the forecast area
continuing, as well as scattered development within humid air on
the eastern side of the upper air low. A similar situation is
expected Sunday. Correspondingly, with these lingering medium to
high PoPs, there is a medium (35% to 50%) chance of rainfall up to
0.50" to 1.00", with highest end rain totals still showing 2" to
3" of rainfall. Therefore, while no flash flood products are
anticipated beyond Friday at this time, we will continue to
message potential for flash flooding. Hiker and campers should
avoid low lying regions such as creeks, streams, and arroyos as
well as steep slopes, especially near drainage basins, and be
prepared to evacuate camp sites if flash flood warnings are
issued. Motorists are also encouraged to continue to exercise
caution while driving. Remember, flooded roadways can have running
water that seems deeper than it appears:
turn around, don't drown! Cloud cover decreases from east to west as
greatest lift and moisture convergence associated with the low moves
off to the west, allowing highs to rise back into the mid 80s to
lower 90s F range, upper 70s to lower 80s F higher elevations.

Warmer and drier weather continues remains in the forecast after
we get through this more humid and rainy stretch of weather. By
early next week, the more familiar diurnal cycle of a 10% to 40%
chance of showers/storms in the afternoon/evening persists
southwest of the Pecos River. Therefore, flash flooding concerns
will still be possible, especially if heavier showers/storms
reoccur over soils saturated by rains earlier this weekend. Highs
begin a more pronounced upward trend into the upper 80s to upper
90s F by Tuesday into the end of next week as the aforementioned
mid to upper ridge and large scale sinking and drying motion
develop squarely over the Southern Great Plains and reduce rain
chances closer to near zero. Late next week, triple digits along
the Rio Grande, Pecos River, and parts of the Permian Basin will
also make a reappearance, with lows settling back into the mid 60s
F to mid 70s F range following the upper 50s to upper 60s F seen
for most this week. Fortunately, dew point temperatures are not
forecast to remain as high as this week, but hot and dry summer
weather will still increase heat stress.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1142 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Ceilings are expected to lift above 3000 ft by 18Z. Scattered
showers with a few storms have already developed across west
Texas and far southeast New Mexico late this morning. This
activity is expected to continue through the afternoon into early
evening hours where -SHRA was implemented for most terminals.
Brief MVFR VIS and CIGs may occur for any passing shower and
storm. Highest confidence in TS and -TSRA will be across MAF, INK,
FST, and PEQ mainly for this afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               67  82  68  87 /  50  80  10  30
Carlsbad                 68  91  69  92 /   0  10  20  30
Dryden                   69  88  70  90 /  40  50  10  20
Fort Stockton            67  87  68  89 /  10  50  20  50
Guadalupe Pass           63  83  65  84 /   0  60  20  70
Hobbs                    65  86  65  88 /  20  30  50  40
Marfa                    57  82  58  82 /  10  50  50  80
Midland Intl Airport     67  82  68  86 /  50  50  10  30
Odessa                   67  83  68  87 /  40  40  20  30
Wink                     67  88  68  90 /  10  30  30  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch through Friday evening for Andrews-Borden-Central
     Brewster-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Crane-Davis
     Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-
     Glasscock-Howard-Loving-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-
     Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves
     County Plains-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-Ward-Winkler.

NM...Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for Southern Lea.

&&

SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...11

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1147 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1119 AM     Flash Flood      Snyder                  32.71N 100.92W
07/16/2026                   Scurry             TX   Fire Dept/Rescue

            The Snyder Fire Department reports flash
            flooding along several streets in the
            community of Snyder.

&&

21

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
233 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     Flash Flood      3 W Tarzan              32.31N 102.04W
07/16/2026                   Martin             TX   Trained Spotter

            Trained spotter reports flash flooding at
            the intersection of State Hwy 176 and FM
            1212.

&&

21

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
337 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

NMZ034-TXZ050-059>061-162115-
Southern Lea County NM-Loving TX-Andrews TX-Ector TX-Winkler TX-
337 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN LEA...ECTOR...
SOUTHERN ANDREWS...WINKLER AND EASTERN LOVING COUNTIES THROUGH 415 PM
CDT/315 PM MDT/...

At 337 PM CDT/237 PM MDT/, Doppler radar was tracking strong
thunderstorms scattered along a line extending from near Kermit to 6
miles northwest of West Odessa to 10 miles south of Andrews.
Movement was south at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Odessa, Kermit, Wink, Goldsmith, West Odessa, Notrees, Odessa
Schlemeyer Field, Penwell, and Winkler County Airport.

This includes Interstate 20 between mile markers 94 and 115.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3165 10348 3169 10241 3227 10226 3230 10240
      3218 10263 3212 10301 3202 10309 3195 10348
TIME...MOT...LOC 2037Z 005DEG 9KT 3187 10312 3188 10259 3217 10249

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

21

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
357 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0351 PM     Flash Flood      Andrews                 32.32N 102.55W
07/16/2026                   Andrews            TX   Emergency Mngr

            Emergency Management reported flash flooding
            in Andrews, particularly around the city
            lake. A few cars were reported stalled due
            to flood waters.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
403 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

TXZ060-067-274-162145-
Ward TX-Reeves County Plains TX-Winkler TX-
403 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN PECOS...EAST
CENTRAL REEVES...WARD...SOUTH CENTRAL WINKLER AND SOUTHEASTERN LOVING
COUNTIES THROUGH 445 PM CDT...

At 402 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Thorntonville, or over Monahans, moving west at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Monahans, Thorntonville, Pyote, Wickett, Roy Hurd Memorial Airport,
and B F Goodrich Testing Track.

This includes Interstate 20 between mile markers 50 and 84.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3165 10333 3166 10332 3168 10289 3147 10276
      3146 10277 3125 10332 3165 10344
TIME...MOT...LOC 2102Z 083DEG 12KT 3156 10292

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

13

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
406 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

TXZ279-282-162145-
Central Brewster County TX-Lower Brewster County TX-
406 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL BREWSTER COUNTY THROUGH
445 PM CDT...

At 406 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 21
miles northeast of Persimmon Gap, or 37 miles southwest of Sanderson,
moving south at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of central Brewster
County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2959 10300 2996 10307 3005 10284 2974 10263
      2973 10266 2975 10267 2971 10269
TIME...MOT...LOC 2106Z 341DEG 14KT 2992 10297

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

13