Flash Flood Warning 108, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
559 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 558 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

- Medium (40-60%, up to 70%) shower and thunderstorm chances
  persist through at least Wednesday, mainly for the higher
  terrain west of the Pecos. Some storms may produce damaging
  downburst winds.

- Temperatures trend down through Wednesday before warming back
  above normal by the end of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday night)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Upper-level ridging continues to build across the eastern half of
the CONUS this afternoon, while troughing is evident over the
western half. Our area is more or less caught between these two
features under southwesterly flow aloft. The eastward displacement
of the ridge allows temperatures to trend down through the short
term period. While highs today still top out in the upper 90s or
just above 100 degrees for most locations, by tomorrow afternoon mid-
to-upper 90s become more commonplace (80s in the mountains).
Overnight lows remain in the low-to-mid 70s across eastern portions
of the area and along the Rio Grande thanks to the low-level jet and
residual cloud cover. Meanwhile, lows in the upper 60s will be more
common farther to the west. Similar to what we have seen the past
week or so, scattered showers and thunderstorms will once again
develop both this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon. The best chances
will be in/around the higher terrain west of the Pecos River (most
notably the Davis Mountains, where chances range from 50-70%). A few
storms will also develop off the higher terrain into western and
central portions of the Permian Basin and Trans-Pecos (20-40%
chances for these locations). Once again, the big concern with any
storms that develop today and tomorrow will be the potential for
damaging downburst winds.

Sprang

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

A southwesterly flow pattern aloft will continue over much of west
Texas and southeast New Mexico on Wednesday as our forecast area
remains sandwiched between an upper-level ridge centered across
the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and an upper-level trough over the
western CONUS. Shortwave impulses embedded within the
southwesterly flow aloft along with abundant moisture will favor
the development of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
over much of the Big Bend, Marfa Plateau, Davis Mountains, Van
Horn Corridor, and Upper Trans Pecos regions. Other isolated to
scattered storms may develop into southeast New Mexico and the
central and western Permian Basin. A few storms may become strong
to severe given sufficient instability/DCAPE and up to 20-30 kt of
deep layer shear. A similar pattern continues on Thursday, with
the best convective chances once again focused over the southwest
mountains and Big Bend region. Upper-level ridging will build
back over west Texas and southeast New Mexico Friday and Saturday.
The ridge axis may shift further west by Sunday but still
maintains an influence across our region through the latter part
of the weekend. Convective coverage should become more limited in
coverage late this week and into the weekend given the building
ridge, but we still anticipate at least isolated showers and
thunderstorms to develop each day, particularly in the mountains.
Moisture might increase on the eastern fringe of the ridge axis on
Sunday to bring slightly better convective coverage (20-30%) on
Sunday. Highs Wednesday and Thursday will mostly range in the 90s,
except for readings in the 80s over the higher terrain and up to
104 degrees along the Rio Grande. Expect a return to above normal
temperatures Friday through the weekend with temperatures heating
back up to near or slightly above the century mark each day.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 558 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

VFR conditions outside of storms. A 25% to 35% chance of
scattered storms at terminals, especially across Upper Trans Pecos
and Stockton Plateau from beginning of period into 02Z-04Z this
evening. Strongest storms may produce damaging winds with dusty
outflow reducing visibilities, heavy rainfall, hail, and frequent
lightning. Lower chances of storms for terminals on central and
eastern Permian Basin (including MAF). Southerly winds stay 15 to
25 knots into 06Z- 09Z late this evening/early tomorrow morning in
a LLJ over Permian Basin and Stockton Plateau, before winds
subside into the morning hours. Winds then increase 15Z-20Z
tomorrow , with a 35% to 45% chance of scattered storms developing
19Z-21Z into end of period for terminals over the Upper Trans
Pecos and Stockton Plateau, and another accompanying risk for
damaging winds, hail, and heavy rain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               75  97  74  96 /  10  10   0  10
Carlsbad                 73  97  70  96 /  20  40  20  20
Dryden                   76  97  75  97 /  20   0  10  10
Fort Stockton            73  94  72  92 /  20  30  10  40
Guadalupe Pass           69  88  66  88 /  20  20  20  20
Hobbs                    70  93  68  91 /  30  30  30  20
Marfa                    62  87  61  85 /  60  50  50  70
Midland Intl Airport     75  94  73  93 /  20  10  10  20
Odessa                   74  93  73  92 /  20  10  10  20
Wink                     74  96  72  93 /  20  30  30  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...94

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>