Flash Flood Warning 107, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
559 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 558 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

- Medium (40-60%, up to 70%) shower and thunderstorm chances
  persist through at least Wednesday, mainly for the higher
  terrain west of the Pecos. Some storms may produce damaging
  downburst winds.

- Temperatures trend down through Wednesday before warming back
  above normal by the end of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday night)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Upper-level ridging continues to build across the eastern half of
the CONUS this afternoon, while troughing is evident over the
western half. Our area is more or less caught between these two
features under southwesterly flow aloft. The eastward displacement
of the ridge allows temperatures to trend down through the short
term period. While highs today still top out in the upper 90s or
just above 100 degrees for most locations, by tomorrow afternoon mid-
to-upper 90s become more commonplace (80s in the mountains).
Overnight lows remain in the low-to-mid 70s across eastern portions
of the area and along the Rio Grande thanks to the low-level jet and
residual cloud cover. Meanwhile, lows in the upper 60s will be more
common farther to the west. Similar to what we have seen the past
week or so, scattered showers and thunderstorms will once again
develop both this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon. The best chances
will be in/around the higher terrain west of the Pecos River (most
notably the Davis Mountains, where chances range from 50-70%). A few
storms will also develop off the higher terrain into western and
central portions of the Permian Basin and Trans-Pecos (20-40%
chances for these locations). Once again, the big concern with any
storms that develop today and tomorrow will be the potential for
damaging downburst winds.

Sprang

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

A southwesterly flow pattern aloft will continue over much of west
Texas and southeast New Mexico on Wednesday as our forecast area
remains sandwiched between an upper-level ridge centered across
the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and an upper-level trough over the
western CONUS. Shortwave impulses embedded within the
southwesterly flow aloft along with abundant moisture will favor
the development of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
over much of the Big Bend, Marfa Plateau, Davis Mountains, Van
Horn Corridor, and Upper Trans Pecos regions. Other isolated to
scattered storms may develop into southeast New Mexico and the
central and western Permian Basin. A few storms may become strong
to severe given sufficient instability/DCAPE and up to 20-30 kt of
deep layer shear. A similar pattern continues on Thursday, with
the best convective chances once again focused over the southwest
mountains and Big Bend region. Upper-level ridging will build
back over west Texas and southeast New Mexico Friday and Saturday.
The ridge axis may shift further west by Sunday but still
maintains an influence across our region through the latter part
of the weekend. Convective coverage should become more limited in
coverage late this week and into the weekend given the building
ridge, but we still anticipate at least isolated showers and
thunderstorms to develop each day, particularly in the mountains.
Moisture might increase on the eastern fringe of the ridge axis on
Sunday to bring slightly better convective coverage (20-30%) on
Sunday. Highs Wednesday and Thursday will mostly range in the 90s,
except for readings in the 80s over the higher terrain and up to
104 degrees along the Rio Grande. Expect a return to above normal
temperatures Friday through the weekend with temperatures heating
back up to near or slightly above the century mark each day.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 558 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

VFR conditions outside of storms. A 25% to 35% chance of
scattered storms at terminals, especially across Upper Trans Pecos
and Stockton Plateau from beginning of period into 02Z-04Z this
evening. Strongest storms may produce damaging winds with dusty
outflow reducing visibilities, heavy rainfall, hail, and frequent
lightning. Lower chances of storms for terminals on central and
eastern Permian Basin (including MAF). Southerly winds stay 15 to
25 knots into 06Z- 09Z late this evening/early tomorrow morning in
a LLJ over Permian Basin and Stockton Plateau, before winds
subside into the morning hours. Winds then increase 15Z-20Z
tomorrow , with a 35% to 45% chance of scattered storms developing
19Z-21Z into end of period for terminals over the Upper Trans
Pecos and Stockton Plateau, and another accompanying risk for
damaging winds, hail, and heavy rain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               75  97  74  96 /  10  10   0  10
Carlsbad                 73  97  70  96 /  20  40  20  20
Dryden                   76  97  75  97 /  20   0  10  10
Fort Stockton            73  94  72  92 /  20  30  10  40
Guadalupe Pass           69  88  66  88 /  20  20  20  20
Hobbs                    70  93  68  91 /  30  30  30  20
Marfa                    62  87  61  85 /  60  50  50  70
Midland Intl Airport     75  94  73  93 /  20  10  10  20
Odessa                   74  93  73  92 /  20  10  10  20
Wink                     74  96  72  93 /  20  30  30  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...94

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
558 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

TXZ075-278-279-292330-
Pecos TX-Central Brewster County TX-Davis Mountains Foothills TX-
558 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN PECOS AND NORTH
CENTRAL BREWSTER COUNTIES THROUGH 630 PM CDT...

At 557 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 24
miles northeast of Marathon, or 29 miles south of Fort Stockton,
moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Sierra Madera.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3020 10303 3039 10327 3080 10287 3045 10247
TIME...MOT...LOC 2257Z 227DEG 16KT 3047 10297

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

94

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
600 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

TXZ075-292330-
Pecos TX-
600 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL PECOS COUNTY
THROUGH 630 PM CDT...

At 600 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles east of Fort Stockton, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Fort Stockton and Fort Stockton-Pecos County Airport.

This includes Interstate 10 between mile markers 254 and 288.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3066 10283 3090 10299 3121 10272 3086 10238
TIME...MOT...LOC 2300Z 232DEG 11KT 3095 10273

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

94

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
611 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

TXZ279-280-282-292345-
Chisos Basin TX-Central Brewster County TX-Lower Brewster County TX-
611 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN BREWSTER COUNTY
THROUGH 645 PM CDT...

At 610 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Chisos Basin, or 8 miles west of Panther Junction, moving north at 10
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Panther Junction, Chisos Basin, Big Bend National Park, Terlingua
Ranch Airport, and Terlingua Ranch Lodge.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 2916 10352 2963 10341 2950 10282 2910 10305
      2909 10306 2909 10308 2905 10309 2906 10309
      2902 10310
TIME...MOT...LOC 2310Z 188DEG 8KT 2928 10334

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

94

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
619 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

TXZ050-060-061-292345-
Andrews TX-Ector TX-Winkler TX-
619 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WESTERN ECTOR...SOUTHWESTERN
ANDREWS AND EASTERN WINKLER COUNTIES THROUGH 645 PM CDT...

At 619 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles east of Kermit, moving northeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Penwell and Notrees.

This includes Interstate 20 between mile markers 97 and 104.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3168 10293 3195 10306 3218 10280 3171 10252
TIME...MOT...LOC 2319Z 246DEG 9KT 3189 10286

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

94

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
623 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

NMZ033-TXZ045-300000-
Central Lea County NM-Gaines TX-
623 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL LEA AND
NORTHWESTERN GAINES COUNTIES THROUGH 700 PM CDT/600 PM MDT/...

At 623 PM CDT/523 PM MDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm near Hobbs, moving northeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Hobbs, Nadine, Humble City, Knowles, Lea County Regional Airport,
Industrial Airpark, and Higginbotham.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3257 10308 3272 10336 3300 10315 3300 10307
      3295 10307 3295 10285 3287 10279
TIME...MOT...LOC 2323Z 216DEG 9KT 3280 10311

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

94