Flash Flood Warning 104, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

253 
WGUS74 KMAF 191616
FFSMAF

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1116 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

TXC335-415-191815-
/O.CON.KMAF.FF.W.0104.000000T0000Z-260619T1815Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Mitchell TX-Scurry TX-
1116 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 115 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR NORTH CENTRAL MITCHELL AND SOUTH CENTRAL SCURRY
COUNTIES...

At 1116 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms have produced
heavy rain across the warned area. Between 3 and 5 inches of rain
have fallen. Flooding impacts will continue, but no additional
rainfall is expected. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin
shortly.

HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing
         flash flooding.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams, urban
         areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Dunn.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.

Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law
enforcement and request they pass this information to the National
Weather Service when you can do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 3253 10098 3263 10098 3263 10080 3247 10080
      3247 10098

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

10

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
636 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 635 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

- Low-to-medium rain chances (20-40%) stick around Friday, mainly
  along and south of I-10.

- Warming trend this weekend with low (10% to 15%) shower/storm chances
  over the higher terrain Saturday, followed by lower rain
  chances for most of the area into next week.

- Increased downsloping winds over the Guadalupes Sunday along
  with hot and dry conditions will increase risk of rapid fire
  spread for any fires that start or are ongoing.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1254 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Surface analysis shows the cold front stalled out near I-10, with
breezy conditions behind it. Meanwhile, showers and thunderstorms
remain evident on radar south of the front. Overnight lows behind
the front are expected to bottom out in the mid 60s to low 70s.
Shower and thunderstorm chances (generally 20-40%) remain in the
forecast this afternoon and evening for areas mainly south of
I-10. This is thanks to an upper-level disturbance, upslope flow,
and a decaying cold front. A welcoming break from the heat for
many is on the way this afternoon as highs in the mid 80s to mid
90s can be expected (except for the those along the Rio Grande
where highs reach or exceed the century mark). However, the break
is short-lived as temperatures bounce back in the mid-to-upper 90s
for most on Saturday. Some spots along the Pecos River Valley and
Rio Grande look to see readings at or above the century mark. Low
(10-20%) rain chances stick around Saturday, but become confined
to areas in and around the Davis Mountains. Triple digit heat is
on the way again late this weekend and into next week. Please see
Long Term Discussion below for more details.

Greening

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 1254 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Mid to upper ridging remains on track to build across the the
Desert SW into Intermountain West this weekend Lows Saturday night
range from the 70-75F range, 65F-70F over northern SE NM plains
into northwest Permian Basin and Marfa Plateau, and 75F-80F range
near the Rio Grande. Highs Sunday rise into the 100-105F range,
95F-100F higher elevations and southeast Permian Basin, and
105-110F range along the Pecos River valley into northern Permian
Basin, as well as Presidio Valley, with 110F-115F for the Big
Bend. The strengthened ridging will keep rain chances very low
(<5%), although development of thermal lows along a retreating lee
trough will result in increased downsloping south/southwest winds
15 to 25 mph and 25 to 35 mph over the Guadalupes. Winds have
decreased from previous runs, but given low RH and dew point
temperatures below 40F in regions of strongest winds along with
temperatures remaining above 95F, we are continuing to monitor the
Guadalupes for fire weather concerns Sunday (more on this in the
Fire Weather Discussion). Lows Sunday night remain similar to
Saturday night, if not a few degrees warmer due to the warmer
daytime temperatures taking longer to cool off.

Next week, a continued amplified ridging pattern holds as
troughing over the eastern CONUS takes shape, resulting not only
in warmer than average temperatures persisting but also weak
west/northwest steering flow aloft allowing occasional storm
systems and accompanying lift and moisture to brush northern parts
of the area. The southern part of the storm track occasionally
brushing the northern parts of the forecast area and providing
lift and moisture will allow 20% to 30% shower/storm chances to
develop each afternoon/evening over far northern and eastern parts
of the forecast area. However, even then models are indicating
rainfall largely remaining below a tenth of an inch and PWATs
staying within the 1.00" to 1.25" range: more favorable for brief
heavy rainfall rather than prolonged washouts. Highs begin the
weekend similar to Sunday, before another wind shift to northerly
as the circulation around the aforementioned thermal low helps
reinforce southward passage of a weak cold front through the area.
As a result, mid-week temperatures "cool" slightly back into the
95F-100F range, with 100F- 105F highs limited closer to the Pecos
River valley and 105-110F highs limited to the Presidio Valley
into Big Bend. We will also see a return to prevailing southeast
winds. Given scouring of deeper Gulf moisture from the recent
downsloping winds and hot weather however, this will not be
accompanied by the cooler and more humid conditions we experienced
earlier this month. In fact, by late week, hot and dry feeling
hazardous heat is once again indicated for the Rio Grande basin
into much of the Permian Basin despite continued humid, southeast
upslope flow, with any storms that do form doing little to cool
things off. Heat will remain the biggest impactful story. Follow
proper heat safety precautions and continue to check the forecast
for the latest information on forecast hot weather.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 635 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

MVFR (brief and periodic LIFR) cigs are expected to continue this
morning at HOB and MAF. MVFR cigs will also be possible at INK and
PEQ before lifting to VFR this afternoon. Radar continues to show
showers and thunderstorms across the area, currently impacting PEQ,
INK, and FST. This activity should subside by 15Z/16Z before the
potential of additional development this afternoon. Have opted to
leave afternoon convection out of TAFs for now due to uncertainty in
coverage and impacts. Afternoon activity may be added to the 18Z
TAFs and amendments will be made as needed.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               88  71  94  73 /  30  10   0   0
Carlsbad                 92  70 100  72 /  10   0   0   0
Dryden                   95  73  94  72 /  30  20  10   0
Fort Stockton            93  71  97  71 /  30  10  10   0
Guadalupe Pass           85  68  91  70 /  20   0   0   0
Hobbs                    88  67  96  69 /  10  10   0   0
Marfa                    88  60  92  62 /  50  10  10   0
Midland Intl Airport     88  71  94  73 /  20  10   0   0
Odessa                   88  71  94  72 /  30  10   0   0
Wink                     92  71  98  72 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...55

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
352 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

TXZ082-190915-
Terrell TX-
352 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL TERRELL COUNTY
THROUGH 415 AM CDT...

At 352 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 19 miles northwest of Pandale to near Terrell
County Gas Plant. Movement was southeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

These storms will remain over mainly rural areas of east central
Terrell County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3034 10167 3035 10170 3033 10174 3029 10176
      2997 10176 3025 10198 3037 10182 3053 10177
      3047 10169 3046 10171 3047 10173 3044 10172
      3042 10174 3040 10170 3038 10170 3036 10166
TIME...MOT...LOC 0852Z 326DEG 9KT 3040 10175 3032 10177 3023 10185

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

KLG