Tornado Warning 4, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
119 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

-Severe thunderstorms possible this afternoon/evening...with
damaging winds and a few tornadoes possible

-Windy conditions into Monday

-Very cold wind chills tonight into Monday...along with well below
freezing conditions Monday and Tuesday mornings

-Temperatures rebound by the middle of next week...with well above
normal conditions by late next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

A shortwave will exit the Rockies this morning...deepening as it
moves east into the Plains. SFC low pressure will develop ahead of
this upper shortwave over the central Plains...and move ENE towards
the Great Lakes region tonight. A trailing cold front will then move
rapidly SE through the state this afternoon...moving east of the
state tonight. Much colder air will then surge south into the state
tonight through Mon night. Many hazards will be expected with this
system as it moves over the region.

The first hazard to discuss continues to be the threat for SVR
convection. Forecast soundings suggest a persistent capping
inversion ahead of the surging cold front...which should limit
convection ahead of the front initially. However...given the rapid
SE movement of the cold front and impressive large scale
lift...expect the capping inversion to be easily overcome with the
SFC frontal forcing. Very impressive dynamics are expected with the
shortwave as it drops SE into the state...with plenty of wind energy
expected to translate downward towards the SFC. As a
result...damaging winds will be the primary threat expected...with
winds of 60 to 70 mph possible with the strongest convection along
the front. There may also be a threat for a few QLCS brief tornadoes
along the leading edge of the convection. While not a  primary
threat...some hail may also be seen with any more discrete cells.
Expect the SVR threat to rapidly end from NW to SE this evening as
the front moves east of AR.

The next hazard to discuss will be very strong non-thunderstorm
winds. Given the aforementioned impressive dynamics with the upper
shortwave...and tightening SFC pressure gradient... there looks to
be at least Wind Adv level winds possible. Initially...SRLY winds
look to be in the 15 to 30  mph range sustained ahead of the
front...with gusts over 40 mph at times. However...once the front
passes...and the upper wave moves into the state...expect the NWRLY
winds to increase further across the state late this afternoon into
to night. These winds look to be in the 20 to 40 mph range
sustained...and gusts of 45 to maybe over 50 mph at times. In
fact...some higher terrain areas may see wind gusts well over 50
mph. Have initially used a 50/50 blend of NBM/NBM90 for wind/gust
grids...but could see some potential these could still be a tad low.

Winter-like conditions will make a impressive return tonight into
Mon as much colder air will arrive behind the front. There was some
potential in earlier data to suggest some light snow behind the
front...but latest guidance erodes most of the moisture in the cold
air. As a result...the potential for snow looks much more limited at
this time. If any snow were to be seen...it will be brief and with
limited impacts...and mainly across NRN/NWRN sections.

Windy conditions combined with temps dropping into the teens and 20s
by around sunrise Mon morning will result in wind chill values
dropping into the single digits and teens across central to NWRN
sections. The higher terrain areas of the Ozarks may see wind chill
values get near zero at times. Some low to mid 20s wind chills will
even be possible into SERN AR Mon morning.

While wind chill values will be impressively cold for this time of
year...actual temperatures will also create some hazards as temps
will drop well below freezing. This will result in a widespread
freeze for all of the state both Mon and Tue mornings. Initially...a
large portion of the state will see temps below freezing by sunrise
Mon...with basically all of AR below freezing Tue morning. Temps
will range from the upper teens to upper 20s for all but the SERN
sections Mon morning....and mid teens to mid 20s for basically all
of AR Tue morning. Given how warm conditions have been the last few
weeks...and how responsive plant life has been to the warmer
conditions...this cold may cause significant damage as a result.

Another hazard to discuss will be the increased fire weather threat
on Mon. Depending on how wet fuels become with the frontal
convection...winds will remain elevated on Mon afternoon. While
temps will be below normal for highs Mon...very dry air will have
filtered into the state as well. This will result in min RH values
dipping to near or below critical levels...with some potential for
seeing near Red Flag Conditions Mon afternoon. Will have to see how
long the breezy winds persist to see how likely this scenario may be.

The cold snap will be short-lived as SRLY flow will return by late
Tue and especially by mid-week. Upper level ridging will also be
seen as the ridge to the SW expands towards AR. Temps by late in the
forecast will be back into the 70s for most areas...and even some
80s by late next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 116 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Strong SWrly winds wl cont over the FA ahead of an aprchg cdfrnt
noted over NErn OK/NWrn AR near 18Z, w/ asctd TSRA along the frnt.
Expect MVFR CIGs to persist thru the evng, w/ aforementioned TSRA
extending along the cdfrnt, and gusty NWrly winds ensuing behind
the frnt. Sustained winds of 20 to 25 kts and gusts near 40 kts wl
be possible either side of the cdfrnt. MVFR CIGs should improve fm
W to E later into the overnight PD near and beyond 16/06Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     27  42  22  50 /  30   0   0   0
Camden AR         30  47  25  56 /  30   0   0   0
Harrison AR       21  36  20  52 /  10   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    28  43  26  54 /  10   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  30  45  26  53 /  30   0   0   0
Monticello AR     32  47  26  54 /  60   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      26  43  24  56 /  10   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  22  37  19  50 /  10   0   0   0
Newport AR        29  41  25  48 /  50   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     31  45  26  53 /  40   0   0   0
Russellville AR   27  43  23  55 /  10   0   0   0
Searcy AR         28  44  22  51 /  40   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      31  43  26  49 /  50   0   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for ARZ004>008-014>017-024-
025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-103-112-113-121>123-130-
137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-237-238-240-241-313-340-
341.

Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 10 AM CDT Monday for ARZ004>008-
014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-103-112-113-
121>123-130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-237-238-240-
241-313-340-341.

&&

SHORT TERM...62
LONG TERM....62
AVIATION...72

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
313 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

ARZ004-005-103-112-113-203-212-213-313-152100-
Baxter AR-Boone County Except Southwest AR-Marion AR-
Newton County Higher Elevations AR-Newton County Lower Elevations AR-
Northwest Searcy County Higher Elevations AR-
Eastern, Central, and Southern Searcy County Higher Elevations AR-
Searcy County Lower Elevations AR-Boone County Higher Elevations AR-
313 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northern Searcy,
northeastern Newton, Marion, southern Boone and northwestern Baxter
Counties through 400 PM CDT
...

At 312 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Olvey to Carver to near Piercetown.
Movement was east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Harrison...                       Bull Shoals...
Yellville...                      Jasper...
Gassville...                      Flippin...
Lakeview in Baxter County...      Bergman...
Western Grove...                  Pyatt...
Valley Springs...                 Dugger...
Olvey...                          Carver...
Duff...                           Lakeway...
Bull Shoals State Park...         Clark Hill...
Maumee...                         Pruitt...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for north central
Arkansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3643 9249 3615 9243 3598 9246 3591 9324
      3596 9320 3630 9320
TIME...MOT...LOC 2012Z 256DEG 41KT 3619 9301 3599 9306 3591 9311

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

77

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
328 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

ARZ039-042-137-138-237-238-240-241-152115-
Northwest Yell County AR-Northern Scott County AR-Perry AR-
Yell Excluding Northwest AR-Central and Southern Scott County AR-
Northern Montgomery County Higher Elevations AR-Garland AR-
Northern Polk County Higher Elevations AR-
328 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Perry,
northwestern Garland, southeastern Scott, southwestern Yell and
northern Montgomery Counties through 415 PM CDT
...

At 328 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles southeast of Waldron, moving east at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Danville...                       Gravelly...
Fourche Valley...                 Plainview in Yell County...
Muddy Creek WMA...                Corinth...
Wing...                           Olio...
Kingston...                       Bluffton...
Rover...                          Boles...
Blue Ball...                      Sunlight Bay Park...
Union Hill...                     Chula...
Macedonia in Yell County...       Cedar Creek...
Waltreak...                       Y City...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for central and
western Arkansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3512 9329 3475 9322 3467 9409 3485 9416
TIME...MOT...LOC 2028Z 251DEG 48KT 3479 9403

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

76

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
336 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

ARZ112-113-121>123-221>223-313-152115-
Van Buren County Higher Elevations AR-
Pope County Higher Elevations AR-Newton County Higher Elevations AR-
Southern Pope County AR-
Eastern, Central, and Southern Searcy County Higher Elevations AR-
Searcy County Lower Elevations AR-Southeast Van Buren County AR-
Johnson County Higher Elevations AR-Southern Johnson County AR-
336 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southern Searcy,
southeastern Newton, eastern Johnson, northwestern Van Buren and
northern Pope Counties through 415 PM CDT
...

At 335 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Rosetta to near Holman to Lake Dardanelle.
Movement was northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Marshall...                       Dover...
Knoxville...                      Hector...
Marsena...                        Witts Spring...
Rocky Hill...                     Moore...
Dabney...                         Bohannon...
Imo...                            Holman...
Watts...                          Kay...
Dillen...                         Broomfield...
Solo...                           Smyrna...
Eula...                           Woolum...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for western,
central and north central Arkansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3600 9258 3585 9252 3554 9258 3534 9337
      3550 9333 3579 9330
TIME...MOT...LOC 2035Z 241DEG 47KT 3569 9329 3554 9327 3534 9333

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

77

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