Flash Flood Warning 4, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
113 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1124 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026

-Strong/severe thunderstorms remain possible
overnight/Wednesday morning...mainly isolated severe threat

-Locally heavy rainfall possible...potentially along an axis
along/south of I-40 corridor

-Cooler/calmer conditions expected Wednesday night into the rest of
the week into the weekend.

-Another round of active weather possible late weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1124 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026

SFC cold front continues to drop south/SE late this Tue
evening...with most if not all convection observed so far with this
event occurring post frontal. Mid-level warm air/capping inversion
continues to hold...combined with the persistent cloud cover
resulting in lack of significant heating during the afternoon hrs
has kept most activity at bay. SHR has remained impressive enough
however...with 40-60+ kts...which has caused most struggling
updrafts to shear apart. As a result...the overall threat for SVR Wx
has decreased considerably. However...some isolated strong to
briefly SVR convection may still be possible along/ahead of the SFC
front if the front and LLJ can overcome the increasing CIN.

What may develop could be some locally heavy rainfall as elevated
convection may redevelop and train over the same areas behind the
front later tonight into the morning hrs on Wed. The areas that
could see the heavier rainfall would be in a general east/west
corridor over central sections...or maybe along/south of the I-40
corridor. This may continue even as the cold front continues to push
further south towards the AR/LA border shortly after sunrise...as
advertised in the later runs of the hi-res guidance.

Given the front should likely be along or even south of the AR/LA
border by late morning on Wed...the overall threat for SVR Wx should
remain mainly south of the CWA for Wed daylight hrs. However...there
could still be some potential for strong/briefly SVR elevated
convection that could generate a large hail threat. This will likely
be more limited to far SERN sections.

Cooler and calmer conditions will then be seen behind the front for
late Wed night through much of the work week. Chances for convection
do return to the forecast by sometime over the weekend as a new cold
front moves into the region late Sat into Sun. More strong to SVR
convection may be possible with this activity given the time of
year. However...details regarding exact severe weather details will
need to be ironed out in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1259 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026

IFR/MVFR conds are expected to prevail at most locations through
much of the TAF period. SHRA/TSRA were developing behind a cold
front, with large hail the main concern. SHRA/TSRA activity is
expected to come to end over Nrn sites by Wed morning, otherwise
periods of precip are expected over Cntrl/Srn sites through the
period. Winds will become N/NE behind the front at around 10 kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     61  48  70  48 /  50  10   0   0
Camden AR         65  50  71  50 /  80  60   0   0
Harrison AR       62  44  66  45 /  20   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    63  49  72  49 /  80  30   0   0
Little Rock   AR  63  50  70  50 /  80  40   0   0
Monticello AR     65  53  71  52 /  90  80   0   0
Mount Ida AR      64  48  72  47 /  70  20   0   0
Mountain Home AR  64  45  67  44 /  20   0   0   0
Newport AR        61  50  69  50 /  50  10   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     62  51  69  50 /  80  60   0   0
Russellville AR   64  49  71  48 /  50  10   0   0
Searcy AR         62  48  70  47 /  70  20   0   0
Stuttgart AR      62  52  69  52 /  80  50   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...70

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
111 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026

ARZ137-140-237-240-060700-
Northern Scott County AR-Polk County Lower Elevations AR-
Central and Southern Scott County AR-
Northern Polk County Higher Elevations AR-
111 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Scott and
northwestern Polk Counties through 200 AM CDT
...

At 111 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Mountain Fork, or 16 miles west of Mena, moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Mena...                           Waldron...
Beauchamp...                      Mountain Fork...
Oliver...                         Morgan Springs...
Queen Wilhelmina State Park...    Bates...
Acorn...                          Black Fork...
Winfield...                       Potter...
Boles...                          Shady Grove...
Cauthron...                       Rocky...
Black Fork Mountain Wilderness... Hon...
Cedar Creek...                    Camp Pioneer...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3493 9445 3493 9443 3495 9441 3494 9439
      3496 9437 3495 9434 3497 9423 3498 9403
      3475 9383 3450 9446
TIME...MOT...LOC 0611Z 242DEG 38KT 3461 9452

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

62

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
118 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026

ARZ042-043-054-060645-
Hot Spring AR-Saline AR-Garland AR-
118 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
Garland, central Saline and northern Hot Spring Counties through 145
AM CDT
...

At 118 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Hot Springs, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Hot Springs...                    Benton...
Bryant...                         Hot Springs Village...
Haskell...                        Lonsdale...
Salem in Saline County...         Hot Springs National Park...
Bauxite...                        Avilla...
Nance...                          Congo...
Gulpha Gorge...                   Grape...
Crows...                          Bland...
Owensville...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3458 9306 3476 9255 3469 9255 3469 9251
      3451 9244 3446 9303
TIME...MOT...LOC 0618Z 252DEG 35KT 3453 9294

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

62

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
141 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026

ARZ043>045-055-056-060715-
Pulaski AR-Grant AR-Lonoke AR-Saline AR-Jefferson AR-
141 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Lonoke,
northeastern Grant, northwestern Jefferson, southeastern Saline and
southeastern Pulaski Counties through 215 AM CDT
...

At 141 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Benton, moving east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Little Rock...                    North Little Rock...
Benton...                         Bryant...
Downtown Little Rock...           Southwest Little Rock...
Haskell...                        Shannon Hills...
Wrightsville...                   Argenta...
Redfield...                       Otter Creek...
Ironton...                        Estes...
East End...                       Plum Bayou Mounds SP...
Orion...                          Geyer Springs...
Mabelvale...                      Salem in Saline County...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3444 9200 3448 9274 3450 9274 3450 9276
      3468 9270 3479 9208
TIME...MOT...LOC 0641Z 257DEG 42KT 3459 9257

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

62

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
159 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026

ARZ140-141-237-238-240-241-340-341-060745-
Southwest Montgomery County Higher Elevations AR-
Yell Excluding Northwest AR-Polk County Lower Elevations AR-
Central and Southern Scott County AR-
Southeast Polk County Higher Elevations AR-
Northern Montgomery County Higher Elevations AR-
Northern Polk County Higher Elevations AR-
Central and Eastern Montgomery County AR-
159 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southeastern Scott,
northeastern Polk, southwestern Yell and western Montgomery Counties
through 245 AM CDT
...

At 158 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 9 miles south of Waldron to Caney Creek
Wilderness. Movement was east at 65 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Mount Ida...                      Norman...
Oden...                           Opal...
Mimosa...                         Little Missouri Falls Recreatio...
Mena Intermountain Airport...     Shady...
Mauldin...                        Muddy Creek WMA...
Black Springs...                  Acorn...
Big Fork...                       Board Camp...
Ink...                            Pine Ridge...
Chula...                          Cedar Creek...
Nunley...                         Pencil Bluff...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3482 9357 3436 9359 3443 9421 3477 9420
TIME...MOT...LOC 0658Z 269DEG 55KT 3477 9406 3438 9409

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

70

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