Tornado Warning 14, NWS Baltimore/Washington

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
331 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 474 has been issued for most of
the area until 10 PM, although storms are likely to exit the
area sooner than that. Flood Watch was expanded westward to
include all of northern Maryland and portions of eastern West
Virginia. A Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for Anne
Arundel County from 11 PM tonight through 5 AM Friday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Thunderstorms, some of which may produce damaging winds and
  heavy rain, are possible through Friday.

- 2) Cooler & drier conditions at the start of next week,
  followed by an increase in heat & humidity midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Thunderstorms, some of which may produce
damaging winds and heavy rain, are possible through Friday.

Thunderstorms will continue to increase in coverage and
intensity as they move east into a higher instability axis.
Locally damaging winds, isolated flash flooding, and frequent
lightning are the main threats. Activity should move east of the
Chesapeake Bay by 8 PM, if not sooner. It should remain quiet
overnight with patchy fog, especially in areas that saw rain
this afternoon.

Some degree of convective threat likely continues into Friday
given ample moisture in the atmosphere. However, a primarily
westerly flow often is known to negate the development of more
organized thunderstorm activity. Friday does mark the warmest
day of the remainder of the week with highs in the upper 80s to
low 90s. Depending on how much rainfall occurs during the
previous day, some level of flash flood risk may take place
again on Friday afternoon/evening, particularly south of I-66.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Cooler & drier conditions at the start of next
week, followed by an increase in heat & humidity midweek.

Broad upper-level ridging will continue to build over the Desert
Southwest and Rockies on Monday, allowing for continued high
pressure to settle over the area on Monday. Temperatures continue to
stay in the low-to-mid 80s at the start of the work week before
steadily rising into midweek as heights continue to build.
Temperatures could return to the 90s by Wednesday, with humidity
increasing somewhat as dewpoints go from the lower to upper 60s &
low 70s as temperatures rise.

To the north, a deep upper-level trough begins to form over eastern
Canada Thursday going into Friday. This could introduce
opportunities for showers & thunderstorms towards the end of the
week as this system continues to track eastward. While probability
outlooks could still change significantly being 7 days out, early ML
& AI outlooks have currently identified a 15%-30% probability for
severe weather occurrence associated with this system. As
details on this system become more defined, will have to
continue to monitor synoptic fluctuations in model guidance to help
identify any hazards associated with this system in the coming
days.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected
through 7 PM. Have maintained a TEMPO group in the 3 to 7 PM
timeframe with lesser chances for Charlottesville. Restrictions
are likely as these storms roll through, some of which could be
severe in nature. In the wake of these storms, initial
southerly winds turn more southwest to westerly tonight. Low
ceilings are again possible, particularly in areas which saw
heavier rainfall. Westerly winds on Friday may offset some of
the convective threat on Friday. However, some afternoon to
evening restrictions will again be possible.

A cold front moves through on Saturday which yields a shift to
northwesterly winds. These eventually turn more easterly on
Sunday into Monday as the boundary slides farther to the south.
Despite some weekend shower chances, mainly VFR conditions are
expected.

VFR conditions are anticipated across terminals between Monday and
Tuesday. Light easterly winds shift southwesterly Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
With summertime gradients in place, any potential for Small
Craft Advisories appears low through the weekend and into early
next week. Any hazardous conditions over the waterways will
again be tied to thunderstorms, lightning, and any gust
fronts/outflows. Special Marine Warnings may be needed for this
afternoon and evening as strong convection pushes eastward to
the I-95 metro areas. While westerly winds should offset some
of Friday's convective threat, some storms could impact the
waters during the core heating hours.

Winds remain below SCA thresholds Monday and Tuesday. Easterly winds
between 5-10 knots shift south to southwest on Tuesday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Anomalies are around 1 to 1.25 feet will continue through
tonight as winds remain southerly. This will likely result in
near minor flooding of vulnerable shoreline through the end of
the week. Annapolis is most likely to reach the minor flood
threshold, and a Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for
tonight's high tide. A gradual decline in water levels is
expected this weekend.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...Flood Watch until 11 PM EDT this evening for DCZ001.
MD...Flood Watch until 11 PM EDT this evening for MDZ004>006-008-
     011-013-014-503>508.
     Flood Watch until 7 PM EDT this evening for MDZ003-501-502-509-
     510.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 5 AM EDT
     Friday for MDZ014.
VA...Flood Watch until 11 PM EDT this evening for VAZ027-029>031-
     040-053-054-501-505>507-526-527.
     Flood Watch until 7 PM EDT this evening for VAZ028.
WV...Flood Watch until 7 PM EDT this evening for WVZ050>053-055-
     501>504.
MARINE...Flood Watch until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ530.

&&

DISCUSSION...LFR/BRO/SRT
AVIATION...LFR/BRO/SRT
MARINE...LFR/BRO/SRT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
604 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ008-011-013-014-016>018-504-506-508-
VAZ053>057-527-102215-
Chesapeake Bay north of Pooles Island MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Pooles Island to Sandy Point MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Sandy Point to North Beach MD-
Chesapeake Bay from North Beach to Drum Point MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point MD to Smith Point VA-
Tidal Potomac from Key Bridge to Indian Head MD-
Tidal Potomac from Indian Head to Cobb Island MD-
Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island MD to Smith Point VA-
Patapsco River including Baltimore Harbor-
Chester River to Queenstown MD-Eastern Bay-
Choptank River to Cambridge MD and the Little Choptank River-
Patuxent River to Broomes Island MD-
Tangier Sound and the inland waters surrounding Bloodsworth
Island-District of Columbia-Cecil-Southern Baltimore-
Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert-
Central and Southeast Montgomery-Central and Southeast Howard-
Southeast Harford-Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-
Stafford-Spotsylvania-King George-
Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-
604 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Maryland portion of the
Chesapeake Bay, Tidal Potomac River, and I-95 corridor through
central Maryland, northern Virginia, and District of Columbia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Flood Watches have been issued for the threat of flash flooding
from until 11 PM. This covers the I-95 corridor across Baltimore
and Washington, D.C., down to Prince William County.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 474 has been issued for the
entire I-95 corridor until 10 PM tonight from northeast Maryland
to Spotsylvania County.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn Spotter network has been activated.

MDZ003>006-503-505-507-VAZ025>031-036>040-050-051-501-502-505>508-
526-WVZ050>053-055-102215-
Washington-Frederick-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-
Northwest Montgomery-Northwest Howard-Northwest Harford-Augusta-
Rockingham-Shenandoah-Page-Warren-Clarke-Nelson-Albemarle-Greene-
Madison-Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper-Northern Fauquier-
Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun-
Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Central Virginia Blue Ridge-
Northwest Prince William-Hampshire-Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson-
Hardy-
604 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern West
Virginia, northern and central Virginia, and central and western
Maryland.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Flood Watches have been issued for the threat of flash flooding
until 11 PM for portions of north central and northeast Maryland.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 10 PM for
portions of north central and northeast Maryland.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn Spotter network has been activated.

MDZ501-502-509-510-VAZ503-504-WVZ501>506-102215-
Extreme Western Allegany-Central and Eastern Allegany-
Western Garrett-Eastern Garrett-Western Highland-Eastern Highland-
Western Grant-Eastern Grant-Western Mineral-Eastern Mineral-
Western Pendleton-Eastern Pendleton-
604 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Allegheny Front
counties in western Maryland, eastern West Virginia, and Highland
County Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn Spotter network has been activated.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
340 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

DCZ001-MDZ013-504-092015-
District of Columbia DC-Central and Southeast Montgomery MD-
Prince Georges MD-
340 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT THE NORTHWESTERN DISTRICT OF
COLUMBIA...SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY AND NORTHWESTERN PRINCE GEORGES
COUNTIES THROUGH 415 PM EDT...

At 340 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Forest Glen, or near Langley Park, moving east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Rockville, Bethesda, College Park, Greenbelt, Langley Park,
Beltsville, Bladensburg, University of Maryland, Fort Totten, Aspen
Hill, Potomac, North Bethesda, Laurel, Fairland, Hyattsville, White
Oak, Takoma Park, East Riverdale, Adelphi, and Colesville.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 95 in Maryland between mile markers 24 and 32.
 Interstate 270 in Maryland between mile markers 1 and 3.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for
District of Columbia...and central Maryland.

&&

LAT...LON 3911 7687 3894 7692 3895 7713 3897 7715
      3897 7718 3906 7715 3910 7707
TIME...MOT...LOC 1940Z 270DEG 10KT 3903 7705

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

KR

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
355 PM EDT Thu Jul 09 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0201 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     4 SE Frederick          39.40N  77.36W
07/09/2026                   Frederick          MD   911 Call Center

            Tree down near Pinecliff Drive and Old National Pike
            due to thunderstorms. Time estimated via radar.

&&

Event Number LWX2607321

SRT

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
359 PM EDT Thu Jul 09 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0210 PM     Flash Flood      Frederick               39.43N  77.42W
07/09/2026                   Frederick          MD   911 Call Center

            Car stranded in estimated 2.5 feet of water along
            English Muffin Way. Water was reported to be up to car
            windows. Time estimated via radar.

&&

Event Number LWX2607322

SRT