Alert archive / Virginia / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2026

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 511, NWS Baltimore/Washington

September 4, 2026Orange County, Virginia

NWS Baltimore/Washington issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Sep 4, 2026, 3:29 PM EDT for Orange County, Virginia. It was in force for 46 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Sep 4, 2026, 3:29 PM EDT (19:29 UTC)
Expired: Sep 4, 2026, 4:15 PM EDT
In force: 46 min
Issued by: NWS Baltimore/Washington
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.0 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

County Orange County, VA

The radar

The Sterling radar (KLWX), 93 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:30 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Sep 4, 2:04 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	7 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Roanoke, VA (KRNK), launched 12:00Z, 7.5 hours before the alert went out and 175 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1560 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -59 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1012 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 23 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 27 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 23 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Baltimore/Washington wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Sep 4, 2:12 PM EDT, 1 hour 17 minutes earlier. Its key messages:

1) Hot temperatures, high humidity, and severe thunderstorm chances again today into Saturday.
2) Drier conditions anticipated over the second half of Labor Day weekend and early next week.

Area forecast discussion, Sep 4, 2:12 PM EDT, 1 hour 17 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
212 PM EDT Fri Sep 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued from the DC metro
westward through 9 PM this evening.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Hot temperatures, high humidity, and severe thunderstorm
chances again today into Saturday.

- 2) Drier conditions anticipated over the second half of Labor  Day
weekend and early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Hot temperatures, high humidity, and severe
thunderstorm chances again today into Saturday.

Mid/upper impulse paired with a notable low-level theta-e
ridge/moisture plume is triggering scattered to numerous
thunderstorms over WV into western MD and VA. Expect this to
continue and congeal into one or more clusters as storms press
southeastward generally near and southwest of the Potomac River
through early this evening. The timing is much more in the
typical climo window compared to yesterday's late evening event.
Damaging wind gusts are the main threat, though some hail is
possible especially in any semi-discrete/lead cells. Mid-level
lapse rates have lessened a bit but shear will increase to
around 40 kts by this evening which could compensate. Increased
flow and moderate to high MLCAPE (1500-2500 J/kg) and DCAPE
(900-1400 J/kg) will support a damaging wind risk.

Storms should gradually wane in intensity and coverage by late
evening, though continued height falls and the approach of a
surface front may continue at least spotty activity through much
of the night.

Notably cooler Sat with some showers or thunderstorms associated
with a disturbance aloft. There remains notable uncertainty wrt
coverage. Lower odds for SVR wx Sat with SPC only having the FA in
General Thunder. Some models much more bullish than others, with the
greatest likelihood of precip across the SW half of the FA. Highs
Sat in the 80s for most.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Drier conditions expected for the second half of
Labor Day weekend through early next week.

Sfc high pressure over the GL will track over the Mid-Atlantic Sun
into Mon, with accompanying mid-level dry air that will bring down
humidity and t-storm chances. Daily highs drop to the low 80s, along
with drier dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s. These conditions
likely persist through Tue as high pressure drifts south.

As high pressure dominates, expect temps to slowly creep back up to
the mid-to-upper 80s beginning Tue and Wed. Entering into the
midweek, broad upper-level ridging begins to build over the southern
Plains, with a deep trough forming to the north over Nova Scotia.
This will create a frontal boundary tracking across the East Coast
sometime during this period, potentially beginning Wed and into Thu.
This could create chances for a few showers or storms to form along
the front as it tracks through, along with increasing humidity.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Additional storms with somewhat uncertain in eastern extent
through early evening. TEMPOs were introduced where confidence
is highest. Winds will remain NW through Sat.

Prevailing VFR conditions are anticipated at terminals Sun through
Tue. Nw'ly winds shift S'ly on Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Another round of storms are anticipated most likely through this
evening which likely prompts SMWs. Otherwise, generally light
flow is expected into the upcoming weekend, though NW gusts
could approach SCA levels tonight into Sat.

Winds could approach SCA levels Sun evening before diminishing back
below thresholds by Mon morning. NW'ly winds shift S'ly on Tue.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...DHOF/CPB/EST/SRT
AVIATION...DHOF/CPB/EST/SRT
MARINE...DHOF/CPB/EST/SRT

Hazardous weather outlook, Sep 4, 2:06 PM EDT, 1 hour 23 minutes before

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In the hours before

Local storm report, Sep 4, 2:47 PM EDT, 42 minutes before

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Local storm report, Sep 4, 3:03 PM EDT, 26 minutes before

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Local storm report, Sep 4, 3:08 PM EDT, 21 minutes before

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Local storm report, Sep 4, 3:15 PM EDT, 14 minutes before

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Local storm report, Sep 4, 3:17 PM EDT, 12 minutes before

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Local storm report, Sep 4, 3:22 PM EDT, 7 minutes before

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The office that day

Everything else NWS Baltimore/Washington issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Sep 3, 10:49 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LWX	Clarke, Loudoun	41 min
Sep 3, 10:53 PM EDT	Special Marine Warning	LWX		37 min
Sep 3, 10:54 PM EDT	Special Marine Warning	LWX		2 hr
Sep 3, 11:09 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LWX	Fairfax, Loudoun, Prince William, City of Manassas, City of Manassas Park	36 min
Sep 3, 11:13 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LWX	Fairfax, Loudoun	47 min
Sep 3, 11:20 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LWX	Arlington, Fairfax, City of Alexandria, City of Fairfax, City of Falls Church	25 min
Sep 3, 11:27 PM EDT	Special Marine Warning	LWX		93 min
Sep 3, 11:37 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threat	LWX	Arlington, Fairfax, City of Alexandria, City of Falls Church	38 min
Sep 3, 11:47 PM EDT	Special Marine Warning	LWX		30 min
Sep 3, 11:58 PM EDT	Special Marine Warning	LWX		62 min
Sep 4, 12:00 AM EDT	Special Marine Warning	LWX		90 min
Sep 4, 12:04 AM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	LWX	Arlington, Fairfax, City of Alexandria, City of Falls Church	3 hr
Sep 4, 12:18 AM EDT	Special Marine Warning	LWX		87 min
Sep 4, 12:53 AM EDT	Special Marine Warning	LWX		37 min
Sep 4, 12:55 AM EDT	Special Marine Warning	LWX		65 min
Sep 4, 1:42 AM EDT	Special Marine Warning	LWX		63 min
Sep 4, 2:31 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LWX	Albemarle, Nelson	29 min
Sep 4, 2:41 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LWX	Frederick, Shenandoah, Warren, City of Winchester	49 min
Sep 4, 2:46 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LWX	Culpeper, Rappahannock	44 min
Sep 4, 3:01 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LWX	Culpeper, Madison	44 min
Sep 4, 3:08 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LWX	Clarke, Fauquier, Loudoun, Warren	52 min
Sep 4, 3:12 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LWX	Page, Shenandoah, Warren	33 min
Sep 4, 3:19 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LWX	Culpeper, Fauquier, Rappahannock	26 min
Sep 4, 3:47 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LWX	Page, Rockingham, Shenandoah	28 min
Sep 4, 3:50 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LWX	Fairfax, Fauquier, Loudoun, Prince William, City of Manassas, City of Manassas Park	40 min
Sep 4, 3:54 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LWX	Orange, Spotsylvania	36 min
Sep 4, 3:59 PM EDT	Special Marine Warning	LWX		61 min
Sep 4, 4:15 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LWX	Spotsylvania	45 min
Sep 4, 4:19 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LWX	Greene, Madison, Page, Rockingham	41 min
Sep 4, 4:21 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LWX	Albemarle, Orange	24 min
Sep 4, 4:23 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LWX	Fairfax, Prince William	27 min
Sep 4, 4:32 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LWX	Highland	32 min
Sep 4, 4:44 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LWX	Albemarle, Greene, Orange	46 min
Sep 4, 4:46 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LWX	Augusta, Highland	30 min
Sep 4, 4:52 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LWX	Greene, Madison, Orange	38 min
Sep 4, 4:54 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LWX	Albemarle, Greene	38 min
Sep 4, 4:59 PM EDT	Special Marine Warning	LWX		20 min
Sep 4, 5:02 PM EDT	Special Marine Warning	LWX		17 min
Sep 4, 5:10 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LWX	Orange	20 min
Sep 4, 5:18 PM EDT	Special Marine Warning	LWX		33 min
Sep 4, 5:25 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LWX	Augusta, Nelson	35 min
Sep 4, 5:29 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LWX	Albemarle, City of Charlottesville	46 min
Sep 3, 8:20 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LWX	Allegany, Washington	40 min
Sep 3, 8:28 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	LWX	Garrett	32 min
Sep 3, 8:54 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LWX	Garrett	36 min
Sep 3, 8:57 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LWX	Washington	48 min
Sep 3, 9:17 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	LWX	Garrett	28 min
Sep 3, 9:30 PM EDT	Coastal Flood Advisory	LWX	Anne Arundel	4 hr
Sep 3, 9:35 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LWX	Allegany, Garrett	40 min
Sep 3, 10:03 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LWX	Garrett	42 min
Sep 3, 10:08 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LWX	Carroll, Frederick, Howard, Montgomery	52 min
Sep 3, 10:41 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LWX	Baltimore, Carroll, Howard	35 min
Sep 3, 11:56 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threat	LWX	Anne Arundel, Calvert, Prince George's	49 min
Sep 4, 12:50 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	LWX	Garrett	40 min
Sep 4, 1:19 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LWX	Garrett	41 min
Sep 3, 10:12 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LWX	Grant, Hampshire, Mineral	33 min
Sep 3, 10:34 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LWX	Grant, Hampshire, Hardy, Mineral	41 min
Sep 4, 2:07 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	LWX	Tucker	23 min
Sep 4, 2:17 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LWX	Hampshire, Hardy	43 min
Sep 4, 2:22 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LWX	Grant	30 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Virginia, 2026 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2026

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.