Severe Thunderstorm Warning 86, NWS Lubbock, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
103 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 101 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

 - Scattered thunderstorms, some severe, are expected to develop this
   afternoon across the Caprock, where they will track eastward
   through the late evening.

 - Warm temperatures will continue through the weekend with daily
   chances for showers and thunderstorms through early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 101 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Water vapor imagery this afternoon is already detecting thunderstorm
initiation across the southern extent of the Permian Basin, as the
base of an upper level trough tracks through portions of the
Rockies. Much of the large scale lift with this system will remain
to our north this afternoon, translating into portions of the
northern Texas Panhandle. However, further south, ripples within the
flow aloft will track in from central New Mexico this afternoon
serving as a focus point for thunderstorm development.
Simultaneously, a surface low centered over central New Mexico will
deepen and shift east towards to the TX/NM state line, sharpening a
dryline across the area as it slowly mixes eastward. As of 18Z, this
dryline was analyzed by WTM observations moving into Yoakum county.
This boundary of low-level convergence will serve as the main focus
point for convective initiation this afternoon. Despite most
forecast soundings across the area noting a modest capping inversion
early this afternoon, continued diurnal heating through the
afternoon and ample moisture in place will work together to erode
the cap as convective Ts become easily reachable with highs climbing
into the mid 80s. Deep low-level moisture transport will continue to
be aided by the upslope component of the winds, with dewpoints
steady in the mid 50s across much of the Caprock while off the
Caprock dewpoints climb into the 60s. With the combination of strong
daytime heating and rich moisture in place will allow for an
increasingly humid airmass to develop, maximizing instability, with
MLCAPE values around 2000 J/kg as projected by the NAm to 2400 J/kg
as projected by the RAP. Additionally steep mid-level lapse rates
around 8 to 9 C/km and bulk shear magnitudes up to 35 knots will
support the potential for thunderstorms capable of golfball sized
hail and strong winds up to 70 mph. Although the primary hazards
will be large hail and strong winds, we cannot completely rule the
potential for an isolated tornado or two, although the threat
remains low. This threat would be localized, with the tornado risk
greatest if any discrete storms develop along the dryline, where low-
level convergence is strongest. Storms will track from west to east,
growing upscale as they move off the Caprock and organizing into a
more linear mode. Therefore the threat will then become more wind
driven through the late evening with storms tracking out of the area
around midnight. Thereafter a quiet night is expected with lows in
the 50s to around 60 degrees. The weak cold front is expected to
move into portions of the far southern Texas Panhandle after
midnight, before washing out as it enters the South Plains and
Rolling Plains. Similar to today, low-level stratus will likely fill
in across portions of the southern Rolling Plains and South Plains,
clearing by mid-morning.

As for Saturday, a similar set up to today is looking to pan out
with temperatures similar (although slightly cooler across our
northern counties) in the upper 70s to mid 80s. An additional wave
will pass just to our north while a surface low over central NM
sharpens a dryline to our southwest. With similar return moisture
with dewpoints progged in the 50s and 60s once again and with the
expectation of cloud cover diminishing by late morning with allow
for maximized diurnal heating during peak heating hours. Which will
likely result in strong instability with MLCAPE values depicted by
NAM forecast soundings up to 2000 J/kg along with steep lapse rates
and bulk shear magnitudes around 35 knots. As a result, storms that
develop Saturday will pose another risk for large hail and strong
winds as they track eastward through the area. Unlike today, the dry-
line looks to  make little progression in mixing eastward, which will
lead to area-wide coverage in storms across the Caprock and off the
Caprock. Throughout the evening Saturday, similar to today, storms
will grow upscale into a more organized line as they track off the
Caprock where we will see the threat for stronger winds increase
through the evening.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 101 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

By the second half of the weekend into early next week, a low-
amplitude mid/upper level ridge axis is progged to build over NM/CO
ahead of weak troughing over the CA coast. At the surface, flow is
expected to remain generally southerly as very weak troughing
persists in the lee of the NM high terrain, which will keep
relatively robust low/mid level moisture in place across the region,
although a diffuse dryline is still likely to develop somewhere over
the Caprock each afternoon. This will result in at least isolated
convective development on both Sunday and Monday, but coverage and
intensity are expected to remain limited given slightly increased
midlevel subsidence as well as a notable lack of shear courtesy of
very weak flow aloft. Storm chances Sunday and Monday will also be
highest near the TX/NM state line in closer proximity to the high
terrain, with generally drier weather farther east. By late Monday
night, the ridging aloft will break down entirely as large scale
troughing over the Pacific coast begins shifting eastward. Models
are in good agreement bringing a leading shortwave over the region
sometime on Tuesday, with the trough potentially obtaining a slight
negative tilt as it does so. While this will likely bring a period
of more widespread showers and storms to the region, severe
potential will depend on the timing of the trough, with a slower
progression favoring better storm chances for a longer period
Tuesday into Tuesday night compared to a faster progression.
Thereafter, consensus indicates a cutoff low will likely develop
somewhere over the western CONUS, with weak ridging ahead of it
potentially bringing a relative break in storm chances during the
middle to late week period along with warmer temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

VFR ceilings have returned to the terminals early this afternoon,
after and early erosion of low-stratus earlier. VFR conditions
are expected to continue, but may become MVFR with any -TSRA that
is expected to develop at the KLBB and KPVW around 21Z to 22Z and
at KCDS around 01Z. Any storms that track into the terminals will
pose a risk of strong winds gusts, frequent lightning, and large
hail. However, confidence in the exact timing of storms still
remains a bit low. Storms will track eastward, clearing KCDS by
midnight. MVFR to IFR CIGs are forecasted to return to KLBB and
KPVW by daybreak where they may persist through late morning.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...12

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1151 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

TXZ021>044-231700-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd-
Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum-
Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
1151 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains, and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across the Caprock
early this afternoon where they will track eastward off the Caprock
through late Friday evening. Some storms may become severe with
main threats being golfball sized hail, strong wind gusts up to 70
mph, and localized heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Daily chances for thunderstorms will continue through the weekend
and into next week. Some storms may be strong to severe and may
produce locally heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

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