Severe Thunderstorm Warning 7, NWS Lubbock, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1234 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

- A few isolated showers and storms may develop this afternoon and
  again on Tuesday, mainly along and east of the I-27 corridor.

- Chances for showers and storms return Wednesday and again
  Friday.

- Elevated to near critical fire danger will continue each day
  this week, especially on the Caprock.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Water vapor imagery early this afternoon shows fast zonal flow aloft
in place over most of the CONUS which has resulted in a similar
surface pattern compared to yesterday. A broad lee surface trough in
eastern CO will gradually migrate eastward through the rest of
today, which will in turn sharpen a dryline near the I-27 corridor
over the next several hours. West of the dryline, modest west winds
and humidity values near 10 percent will result in elevated to near
critical fire danger this afternoon and evening. In contrast,
dewpoints are progged to remain near 50 degrees east of the dryline.
With daytime highs reaching the low 90s, convective temperatures
will be within reach, and our current expectation is for a few
isolated showers or weak thunderstorms to develop after about 4 PM
along or just east of the I-27 corridor. Despite respectable
moisture in the midlevels, the subcloud layer will be nearly 4-5km
deep, so measurable precipitation is unlikely with this activity and
individual updrafts are expected to struggle to maintain themselves
especially given very weak surface confluence. That being said,
given such large surface T/Td spreads, a few strong wind gusts
could materialize beneath any longer-lived storm cells. Any
convection will then fade quickly this evening with the loss of
daytime heating.

Winds tonight will remain on the breezy side as surface troughing
persists over southwest KS, with the southerly component continuing
to transport plenty of shallow low level moisture into our area. A
mild overnight period is therefore expected with lows only falling
into the mid 50s to low 60s by sunrise. Tuesday will again evolve
very similarly to today, although with the dryline eventually
settling farther east, likely just off the Caprock. This will occur
as surface troughing shifts southward over the TX Panhandle ahead of
a weakening cold front, which will allow for stronger westerly flow
and near critical fire danger along and west of I-27 Tuesday
afternoon. Along and east of the dryline, we expect isolated to
widely scattered thunderstorms to develop as convective temperatures
are reached Tuesday afternoon. However, there is some concern
that a capping inversion at the base of a robust EML may limit
storm coverage and longevity, in addition to relatively weak
surface confluence along the dryline. Even so, the potential is
there for a few strong wind gusts especially off the Caprock
before activity diminishes by late Tuesday evening.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

On Wednesday, flow aloft will increase as a relatively potent
shortwave disturbance quickly moves over the Four Corners and out
over the southern plains states. This feature will induce a strong
surface response with a surface low progged to rapidly deepen over
southeast CO during the day, which will drive a modified Pacific
front eastward over our area by Wednesday afternoon. Winds are
likely to be solidly breezy to low end windy on Wednesday with most
models indicating the surface low will deepen to 995mb or less. The
upper wave will bring with it plentiful mid and upper level moisture
along with rather strong forcing for ascent. However, the Pacific
front will sweep most low level moisture to our east, and as a
result any precipitation on Wednesday will likely take the form of
scattered fast-moving elevated rain showers. A few embedded
thunderstorms are possible Wednesday evening off the Caprock, but
severe convection currently looks likely to remain well to our east.

Weak ridging aloft will bring one day of benign weather on Thursday
before rain chances return on Friday. Southwest flow aloft will
allow for another dryline-type surface pattern Friday ahead of a
cold front set to arrive sometime Friday night into Saturday.
Specifics are uncertain at this lead time, but most locations along
and east of I-27 currently look to have decent potential for showers
and thunderstorms Friday or Friday night ahead of drier and cooler
weather for the upcoming weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Breezy southwest wind speeds will continue at the terminals
ranging from 10-20G28KT with the strongest speeds expected at
KCDS. There remains a small chance for an isolated TS at all TAF
sites this evening, although confidence remains too low for a TAF
mention at this time. If a storm occurs, a period of gusty wind
speeds may be possible with any storm cores along with occasional
lightning.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...12

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
222 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

TXZ021>044-311930-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd-
Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum-
Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
222 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains, and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

A few isolated showers and thunderstorms may develop through this
evening, mainly on the Caprock. Strong wind gusts will be possible
near any storms.

Elevated to briefly critical fire weather will continue through this
evening. A Fire Danger Statement is in effect until 9 PM for much of
the region.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Elevated to near critical fire weather is possible each day this week,
especially on the Caprock.

Isolated thunderstorms may develop along and east of the I-27
corridor on Tuesday afternoon and evening. A few strong wind gusts
will be possible.

Additional showers and thunderstorms are possible Wednesday and again
on Friday.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
417 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

TXZ023-024-302215-
Briscoe TX-Swisher TX-
417 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

...GUSTY SHOWERS WILL IMPACT SWISHER AND BRISCOE COUNTIES THROUGH 515
PM CDT...

At 416 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking gusty showers 7 miles north
of Tulia, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...West Texas Mesonet.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Tulia, Silverton, Caprock Canyon State Park, Kress, Happy, Quitaque,
Vigo Park, Claytonville, and Mackenzie Reservoir.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3433 10098 3432 10184 3475 10194 3475 10116
TIME...MOT...LOC 2116Z 244DEG 34KT 3464 10176

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

AP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
505 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

TXZ028-029-034-035-302300-
Hockley TX-Lamb TX-Lubbock TX-Hale TX-
505 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

...GUSTY SHOWERS WILL IMPACT LUBBOCK...HOCKLEY...SOUTHERN HALE AND
SOUTHEASTERN LAMB COUNTIES THROUGH 600 PM CDT...

At 504 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking gusty showers 8 miles
southeast of Whitharral, or 11 miles northeast of Levelland, moving
northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...West Texas Mesonet.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Lubbock, Levelland, Slaton, Abernathy, Wolfforth, Shallowater,
Idalou, Petersburg, Anton, Ransom Canyon, Spade, Lubbock South Plains
Mall, Lubbock International Airport, Texas Tech University,
Whitharral, Downtown Lubbock, Woodrow, Reese Center, New Deal, and
Smyer.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3342 10242 3385 10244 3410 10157 3342 10156
TIME...MOT...LOC 2204Z 244DEG 34KT 3368 10221

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

AP

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