Severe Thunderstorm Warning 49, NWS Lubbock, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1217 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1211 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

 - Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to move across portions of
   the Caprock and Rolling Plains this afternoon and evening.

 - A few storms may be severe with damaging winds up to 60 mph
   possible today.

 - Hot and breezy weather is expected through the weekend with
   slight chances of storms off the caprock.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Scattered thunderstorms continue to look possible this afternoon
although scattered haboobs would be a better description. Water
vapor imagery currently shows a weak shortwave directly overhead
which will bring weak subsidence in its wake for a brief period this
afternoon. A more subtle shortwave farther west will quickly
approach the area later in the afternoon bringing at least some weak
large scale ascent. Upper level winds will be increasing through the
afternoon as an upper level jet streak at 250mb moves over Far West
Texas. Overall flow through the atmospheric column will be anemic
except for the upper levels which will keep any storms from becoming
organized. Model soundings show an extreme inverted-V profile today
with cloud bases somewhere around 10-15kft. Lapse rates in the
boundary layer will become super-adiabatic this afternoon with very
steep mid-level lapse rates due to some weak cooling of the mid-
levels. This will allow parcels some very weak instability with
forecasted CAPE values on the order of 100-300 J/kg. Isolated
convection is expected to initiate in eastern New Mexico before
advecting into West Texas. The first batch of convection looks to
enter the area between 20 and 21Z and slowly move eastward through
the late afternoon and early evening. As convection moves farther to
the east, it will encounter a more harsh environment in the form of
increased capping. Otherwise, temperatures this afternoon will climb
into the upper 90s on the caprock and lower 100s off the caprock
which will be near record values.

Very hot temperatures will continue for Friday with renewed chances
for isolated thunderstorms but with this convection favoring areas
off the caprock. Friday will see the benefit of increased large
scale ascent with a weak short wave approaching the area during the
afternoon hours. The aforementioned upper level jet streak moving
over Far West Texas today will increasingly affect the region
tomorrow bringing upper level divergence to areas off the caprock.
Forecast sounding profiles for Friday are nearly identical to today.
A surface cyclone will sweep across the Texas Panhandle dragging a
dryline with it into Oklahoma and North Texas. Near record
temperatures will again be possible Friday afternoon with
temperatures approaching heat advisory criteria off the caprock.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

The long term will see a typical spring like pattern involving a
sloshing dryline each day through at least Monday. Long wave
troughing in the western CONUS from Saturday through Monday and
southwest flow aloft will give rise to surface cyclogenesis in lee
of the Rockies each afternoon. The dryline will likely mix east each
afternoon somewhere off the caprock leaving at least a portion of
the FA within the more moist near surface air. Although large scale
ascent will be lacking through this time period, the presence of the
dryline will favor at least slight chances of convection each
afternoon off the caprock. Model differences start to become
significant around Tuesday of next week with the ejection of the
western CONUS trough. A cold front can be expected next week
anywhere from late Monday through Wednesday on the timing. Whenever
this front does push through the area it will bring a break from the
extreme heat.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Breezy
southwesterly winds are expected through the rest of this afternoon
and evening. Winds should calm down slight around midnight, however
will pick back up Friday morning. Thunderstorms are possible at all
three TAF sites. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to
form to the west of I-27 and shift eastward. The main threat is
severe winds gusts with the high potential for downbursts with any
thunderstorm. Thunderstorm chances are expected to clear the areas
before midnight.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...10

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
345 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

TXZ021>044-152045-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd-
Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum-
Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
345 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains, and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to move across the Caprock and
into the Rolling Plains this afternoon and evening. A few storms may
be severe. The primary hazards will be damaging winds in excess of
60 mph. Blowing dust generated by outflow winds may result in
localized reductions to visibility. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in
effect for the entire forecast area until 10 PM CDT.

Elevated fire weather conditions are also expected this afternoon
and evening. A Fire Danger Statement is in effect for the entire
area until 9 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will be possible
every day from Friday through Monday for the entire region.

Thunderstorm chances will continue for areas off the caprock from
Friday through Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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