Severe Thunderstorm Warning 252, NWS Lubbock, TX

854 
WWUS54 KLUB 192231
SVSLUB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
531 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

TXC219-303-192300-
/O.CON.KLUB.SV.W.0252.000000T0000Z-260919T2300Z/
Lubbock TX-Hockley TX-
531 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN LUBBOCK AND SOUTHEASTERN HOCKLEY COUNTIES...

At 530 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles west of
Reese Center, or 11 miles east of Levelland, moving northeast at 15
mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Lubbock, Wolfforth, Shallowater, Reese Center, and Smyer.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Blowing dust is occuring with this storm and could make travel 
hazardous. For your protection move to an interior room on the 
lowest floor of a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3344 10234 3370 10226 3381 10199 3350 10199
TIME...MOT...LOC 2230Z 247DEG 15KT 3361 10217 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

MCZ

870 
WWUS54 KLUB 192248
SVSLUB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
548 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

TXC219-303-192300-
/O.CON.KLUB.SV.W.0252.000000T0000Z-260919T2300Z/
Lubbock TX-Hockley TX-
548 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN LUBBOCK AND SOUTHEASTERN HOCKLEY COUNTIES...

At 547 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 5 miles southeast of Anton to 5 miles southwest of
Reese Center, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Lubbock, Wolfforth, Shallowater, Reese Center, and Smyer.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Blowing dust is occuring well away from this storm and could make 
travel hazardous. For your protection move to an interior room on 
the lowest floor of a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3347 10219 3372 10220 3381 10199 3350 10199
TIME...MOT...LOC 2247Z 242DEG 13KT 3375 10212 3354 10211 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

MCZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1224 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

 - Chances of storms this afternoon and evening with slight chance
   of severe storms.

 - Highs in the 90s this weekend, then cooler starting Monday with
   daily chances of precipitation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Concerns raised in the previous discussion remain valid in the
latest runs of model guidance. Although we will see a weak surface
trough oriented from southwest to northeast across the caprock later
this afternoon, low level convergence will remain insubstantial. A
short wave trough was observed on water vapor imagery extending from
southeastern Colorado southward through Far West Texas. An increase
in the 250mb winds was noted in the same area with wind speeds
topping out around 60kt. Some upper level wind divergence was viewed
in model guidance near the entrance region of this jet streak.
Therefore, any convection this afternoon will likely have to rely on
surface heating along with this lean large scale ascent. CAM
guidance continues to waffle in its guidance of convective
development likely due to the fact that weak lift is present. A
fairly broad area of higher theta-e air at low levels of the
atmosphere existed east of the surface pressure trough. This
provides little confidence in a convective initiation location but
also increases confidence in available moisture for convection.
Although surface dew points started out in the upper 60s this
morning, which most models were under forecasting, they are still
expected to mix out into the mid to possibly lower 50s in vicinity
of the surface pressure trough under strong surface heating. The
reduction in surface dew points may introduce weak capping late this
afternoon and lower potential instability values. Mixed layer
instability may range anywhere between 500 to 1500 J/kg depending on
how much the surface layer mixes out. Either way, shear vectors will
be weak lending to little organization to convection that can be
anticipated resulting in strong to severe wind gusts.

Sunday's forecast has not become any more clear with the latest runs
of guidance. A cold front looks to stall out somewhere across the FA
during the afternoon bringing mostly northerly winds to the region.
At the same time, the departing short wave trough will start to
bring subsidence overhead on the caprock during the afternoon hours
with lingering ascent off the caprock. Scattered thunderstorms will
therefore be favored off the caprock Sunday afternoon coincident with
the deeper low level moisture ahead of the frontal boundary.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Impacts in temperatures from the front will not be felt until after
the weekend as the front pushes through the rest of the region on
Monday. Short wave ridging aloft will build overhead Monday and
Tuesday. However, easterly upslope flow will keep temperatures much
closer and even below seasonal averages through much of the week.
Upslope flow will promote periodic convective chances Monday lasting
through the week. Increasing southwest flow aloft starting around
mid-week will keep convective chances going through the remainder of
the week. Low level flow returning to the south will start to bring
temperatures back up in the second half of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Scattered storms should develop this afternoon and evening. Maintain
a PROB30 for both KLBB/KPVW, and considered adding one for KCDS but
confidence in storm coverage was too low. Any storms that do form
could produce strong, erratic winds. Outside of storms, VFR
conditions are expected with southerly winds though the overnight,
turning to northwesterly into Sunday morning.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...24

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
304 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

TXZ021>044-200815-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd-
Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum-
Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
304 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains, and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Some thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening, mainly
on the Caprock. A few storms could produce wind gusts to 65 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms continue next week.
Locally heavy rain and minor flooding are possible almost any day,
along with a threat for strong thunderstorms.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
455 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

TXZ022-192215-
Castro TX-
455 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN CASTRO COUNTY
THROUGH 515 PM CDT...

At 455 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Hart, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Hart.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3432 10217 3445 10225 3457 10201 3432 10200
TIME...MOT...LOC 2155Z 229DEG 21KT 3441 10215

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

MCZ