Severe Thunderstorm Warning 20, NWS Lubbock, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
550 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 545 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

 - Storm chances this evening, mainly over the Rolling Plains.

 - Additional shower and thunderstorm chances Wednesday and Friday
   evenings, mainly off the Caprock.

 - Elevated-to-critical fire weather conditions continue through
   the end of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 142 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

An upper shortwave will move over the area by the early evening
and a dryline looks to set up south and east of the I-27 corridor.
This will bring additional chances of showers and thunderstorms.
MUCAPE is currently in the 1500-2000 J/kg range. However, the
current synoptic setup and potential capping should keep these
confined to the Rolling Plains and far SE Panhandle. As with last
night's storms, the main threat would be strong winds. Latest CAMs
indicate it ending slightly sooner than last night within the
next few hours.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

An upper trough and surface cold front moving through during the day
Wednesday will lead to height falls and thus slightly cooler high
temperatures, in the low-to-mid 80s on the Caprock. Forcing
parameters will increase by late-afternoon as the trough axis moves
through the area along with a potent low-level jet. Despite all
this, dewpoints remain unimpressive for much of the area behind the
aforementioned front and any storms should develop off the Caprock
and quickly depart east of the CWA due to the fast westerly steering
flow. Winds would likely be the main threat. Breezy sustained winds
near 25 mph will bring elevated to near critical fire weather
conditions to the western South Plains and far SW Texas Panhandle.
Blowing dust is also possible, potentially leading to periods of
reduced visibility.

Zonal flow aloft and the absence of any upper waves will bring a
lull in the active weather pattern on Thursday. Winds will turn
westerly to southerly through the day and highs will generally top
out in the mid 80s. However, given dry fuels, elevated-to-critical
fire weather conditions are possible area-wide. The parade of upper
troughs will continue on Friday and again lead to chances of showers
and thunderstorms. As the trough looks to be quite positively
tilted, its orientation would be such that these would generally
develop off the Caprock. Uncertainty still remains and depending if
the dryline were to set up farther west, then the PoPs would follow
suit. A surface cold front will accompany the aforementioned trough
as it moves over the area and winds will switch to the NE, bringing
cooler and more benign conditions this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 545 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Showers and thunderstorms will continue at KCDS for the next hour
or two, with possible reduced visibilities and gusty and erratic
winds within the storms. Otherwise VFR will persist at all sites
through the end of the TAF period. Gusty westerly winds will
develop Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

A Rangeland Fire Danger Statement is in effect this afternoon
through evening for areas on the Caprock. Although westerly winds
will only be sustained near 15 mph, RHs will be in the teens and
fuels are favorable, as much of last night's precipitation occurred
along and east of I-27 which was nonetheless not overly significant.
There is also a chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly over the
Rolling Plains this evening. Strong and erratic winds along with
lightning strikes are possible within these storms.

Westerly Winds will increase on Wednesday, potentially reaching near
30 mph sustained along the TX/NM border. Temperatures will be about
5-10 degrees cooler than Tuesday, however given the continued
favorable fuels, elevated to near critical fire weather conditions
are possible the western South Plains and far SW Texas Panhandle.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening for TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.

&&

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...19

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
455 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

TXZ021>044-012200-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd-
Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum-
Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
455 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains, and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue off the Caprock
through this evening. A few storms may be severe and will be capable
of producing wind gusts up to 70 mph and hail up to the size of
quarters. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 11 PM for
the southeastern Texas Panhandle and northern Rolling Plains.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Showers and thunderstorms are possible Wednesday, mainly off the
Caprock. The main threat would be strong winds.

Elevated to critical fire weather is possible everyday through
Friday, mainly on the Caprock.

Additional showers and thunderstorms are possible Friday.

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