Severe Thunderstorm Warning 166, NWS Lubbock, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
623 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 622 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

 - Severe thunderstorms expected to continue through the evening
   across the southern Texas Panhandle into the South Plains.

 - Thunderstorm chances each afternoon and evening Wednesday
   through Friday.

 - Triple digit temperatures expected everyday through the
   weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Current radar imagery shows thunderstorm activity to the north to
west of our forecast area across the eastern Texas Panhandle and
western portions of Oklahoma. Storms are beginning to creep into the
far southeastern Texas Panhandle, however look to be just showers
and are expected to remain sub-severe. Models are not handling these
storms well with CAMs not picking up any activity. A Severe
Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 3 PM this afternoon for
Childress County. These storms are slow moving, however are expected
to clear the area in the next couple of hours. Otherwise, the rest
of the forecast area is on track to be quiet, but hot. Prevailing
upper ridging as well as moderate to breezy southerly surface flow,
high temperatures today are expected to reach triple digits by later
this afternoon.

The caveat is the thunderstorm potential for this evening. Scattered
thunderstorms will develop across southern Kansas this afternoon
along a dryline/surface trough before combining into a line and
expanding southward through Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. The
uncertainty at the moment is whether the line of storms will reach
our forecast area or is an outflow from these storms triggers storm
development in our area. Daytime heating should destabilize the
atmosphere, however we will have to wait and see if these storms use
up the moisture. With current radar imagery indicating the storms
are beginning to diminish, the likelihood of that occurring is low.
Current soundings indicate really good instability off the Caprock
with MUCAPE values above 5000 J/kg and effective shear of 45-50
knots making elevated severe thunderstorms possible. Any severe
thunderstorms will have the potential for up to baseball size hail
and wind gusts up to 70 mph. Thunderstorms, if any, are expected to
clear the forecast area around midnight.

The rest of the overnight period will be quiet. A wide range of
temperatures are expected with lows in the mid 60s across the far
southwestern Texas Panhandle up to upper 70s across southern Rolling
Plains where lingering clouds overnight hinder radiative cooling.
Wednesday will be another hot one. The aforementioned upper ridge
will remain stagnant over western to central portions of Texas.
Light southerly surface winds will increase to moderate to breezy
through the afternoon. High temperatures will range from mid 90s
across the far southern Texas Panhandle to just below Heat Advisory
temperatures across the southern Rolling Plains. A passing shortwave
will trigger the development of a lee surface low over northern New
Mexico during the afternoon. This will shift surface flow to the
southeast through the late afternoon and evening. Ascent from the
passing shortwave as well as upslope surface flow, thunderstorm
potential returns late Wednesday afternoon and evening. Models
indicate isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop across
higher terrain in northeastern New Mexico before expanding southeast
into our area. Severe thunderstorms will be possible with
instability values around 3000 J/kg.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

The hot temperatures are expected to continue through the long term
forecast with possible Heat Advisory level temperatures by the
weekend. Multiple passing upper shortwaves each afternoon will bring
precipitation chances Thursday and Friday. The upper ridging
mentioned in the short term discussion will gradually flatten
through the end of the week shifting to mostly zonal flow aloft.
Despite the flattening upper ridging, thickness increases and
southerly surface flow each afternoon will continue to gradually
increase temperatures through the rest of the week. If this trend
continues, will most likely see at the least a Heat Advisory
beginning Friday. Precipitation chances will return once again
Thursday as an embedded upper shortwave passes across the Southern
Plains. At the same time a weak boundary will push through the
northern Texas Panhandle. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will
be possible along the boundary before expanding into northern
portions of our region. Severe thunderstorms will be possible along
the frontal boundary. Another passing embedded shortwave will bring
thunderstorm chances again Friday evening. Over the weekend, flow
aloft will shift to the southwest as the upper ridging finally
pushes eastward over the Gulf states and an upper trough amplifies
over the western CONUS. Despite the moist southwesterly upper flow,
the weekend looks to remain dry.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Scattered thunderstorms will remain in the vicinity of KLBB for the
next couple of hours with low chances of directly hitting the TAF
site. However, an abrupt wind shift to the east may occur as a
thunderstorm outflow boundary moves close to the terminal. There is
a higher chance of storms continuing to affect KPVW for the next few
hours. Although this thunderstorm activity will move east through
the evening, they are expected to dissipate before reaching KCDS.
Moisture will continue to stream into the region during the
overnight hours leading to a slight chance of MVFR CIGS to all TAF
sites. However, chances are too low to mention in the TAF at the
moment.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...01

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
450 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

TXZ021>044-242200-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd-
Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum-
Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
450 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains, and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A few thunderstorms may become severe late this afternoon through
tonight, mainly over the southern Texas Panhandle and South Plains.
Large hail to base ball size, wind gusts to 70 mph, and locally
heavy rain are all possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Low chances for thunderstorms continue each evening from Wednesday
through Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

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