Severe Thunderstorm Warning 101, NWS Lubbock, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
610 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 608 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

 - Scattered thunderstorms, some severe, are expected to develop
   this afternoon across the Caprock, where they will track
   eastward through the late evening.

 - Warm temperatures will continue through the weekend with daily
   chances for showers and thunderstorms through early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 608 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

A thunderstorm watch has been issued for the far southern Texas
Panhanle and much of the South Plains and Rolling Plains thru
11pm.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

Unlike yesterday, mid-level moisture seems to be on the rise this
afternoon as satellite imagery displays the presence of mid-level
clouds developing across the region. Similar to yesterday, water
vapor imagery analyzes the upper level trough translating through
the Canadian provinces with the base of the trough extending into
the Southern Plains. This will be where the better large-scale
ascent looks to reside, nonetheless, we still expect perturbations
to move through the flow aloft into the area this afternoon and tap
into the residual rich low-level moisture. Which combined with a
diffused dryline and surface low scooting into the southwestern
South Plains will serve as the focus points for convective
initiation this afternoon. Clear skies will make way for warm highs
this afternoon while warm-moist southerly surface flow continues,
with highs expected to climb into the mid 80s while dewpoints are
progged in the 50s and 60s once again. These warm temperatures and
modest dewpoints will work to destabilize the environment this
afternoon with NAM and RAP MUCAPE values up to 2500 J/kg.
Additionally, forecast soundings across the area suggest steep mid-
level lapse rates on the order of 8 to 9 C/km with bulk shear
magnitudes around 35 knots support thunderstorms capable of golf
ball sized hail and strong winds up to 70 mph. Although the primary
hazards will be large hail and strong winds, we cannot completely
rule out the potential for an isolated tornado or two, given
forecast soundings showing decent low-level shear values. This
threat will be maximized mainly with any discrete cells that are
able to develop early this afternoon or along any merging boundaries
tracking through the region. CAMs are a bit uncertain in regards to
the timing of storms developing with 3/4 of the models suggesting a
later initiation after 5 PM while a 1/4 of models have initiation
around or just before 4 PM. This forecaster seems to think that
initiation will likely be a bit earlier than what most of the models
suggest given initiation is already ongoing in the Permian Basin in
addition to a notable axis of moisture/lift moving into the region
by WV imagery. There will be two areas for development, first across
the southern South Plains near the surface low then another area
later in the afternoon off the higher terrain in NM moving into the
region. Most models have both these areas congealing into a linear
mode by the evening, similar to yesterday, while growing upscale as
storms translate off the Caprock. As this happens, we will likely
see the wind threat increase and the hail threat decrease slightly.
Storms will likely move out of the Rolling Plains and far
southeastern TX Panhandle by the early morning hours. Patchy fog
looks to fill in behind these storms as low-level stratus develops
across much of the area as we see RH values near 100% and light
winds. Fog will diminish after daybreak with another hot day
expected Sunday. Upper level ridging will continue to build in
leading to an increase in heights and thickness values, which
combined with warm southerly flow will aid in highs in the mid to
upper 80s. Although confidence remains low, subtle disturbances
rippling through the flow aloft Sunday afternoon combined with the
upslope component to the wind may allow for isolated to scattered
thunderstorms to move in from the higher terrain in eastern New
Mexico. Although flow aloft remains on the weaker side, so the big
factor is if storms can hold together before reaching western
portions of the FA. If they are able to hold, marginally severe
winds and small hail cannot be ruled out.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

Warm temperatures along with daily chances for afternoon showers and
thunderstorms seems to be the main theme of the extended forecast
package this afternoon. By late Sunday, an upper level ridge will
begin to build over portions of the Desert Southwest region.
Meanwhile at the surface, high pressure will encompass much of the
southeastern CONUS while a surface low persists across central New
Mexico. As a result, we expect moist upslope surface flow to
continue with southeast winds around 5 to 15 mph each afternoon
through early next week. As a result, we expect rich low-level
moisture to continue being transported into the region with
dewpoints progged in the 50s and 60s for much of the region while
the dryline lingers across eastern New Mexico. By Monday an H5
shortwave looks to translate northeastward into portions of the Four
Corners region, while out ahead of the parent trough noticable
perturbations ripple through the flow and into the area. As a
result, upslope driven thunderstorms along the higher terrain are
expected to develop Monday afternoon. Although flow aloft will
likely remain weak, it is possible that these storms will reach
portions of the far southwestern Texas Panhandle and northern South
Plains. The mid-level wave will translate into portions of the
Caprock regions by Tuesday, bringing increased chances for
precipitation to the region as we see H3 to H7 moisture move in with
this system in addition to better forcing for ascent. As for mid to
late week next week, ensembles continue to depict daily chances for
showers and thunderstorms, primarily off the Caprock as the mid-
level wave slowly translates northeastward into the Southern
Plains. However, guidance is a bit messy with the placement of
this scenario so confidence remains low at this point in time in
regards to timing and coverage. As for temperatures through the
extended, expect warm highs in the 80s and 90s to prevail through
much of the week, with the exception of Tuesday as a weak FROPA
moves into the region through the early morning hours.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 608 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

Chcs for SHRA/TSRA continue thru at least 05Z at KLBB/KPVW and
10Z at KCDS. Overnight BKN/OVC250 will settle in and last through
at least mid morning tomorrow. Winds will remain out of the
SSE/SE with speeds up to 15kts.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...28

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1141 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

TXZ021>044-241645-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd-
Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum-
Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
1141 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains, and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms will develop across the Caprock late this
afternoon and move into the Rolling Plains this evening. A few
storms may be severe, with damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph and
golfball sized hail as the primary hazards with storms. Heavy
rainfall will be possible with storms, leading to the potential for
localized flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Patchy fog will be possible area-wide Sunday morning.

Chances for thunderstorms are forecast each day through the middle
of next week. Some storms may be severe, with heavy rain possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
755 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0728 PM     Landspout        5 NW Tokio              33.23N 102.63W
05/23/2026                   Yoakum             TX   Storm Chaser

            Brief landspout lasted about 3 minutes.
            Located approximately 5 miles to the
            northwest of chaser location. Location
            estimated.

&&

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>