Red Flag Warning 16, NWS Lubbock, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1235 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

 - High-based thunderstorms, some severe, remain possible this
   afternoon.

 - Very mild this week with sporadic chances for thunderstorms
   from Monday night through Friday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

The dryline has moved into our western zones as of noon and is
continuing to progress eastward. Some CAMs show some isolated
convection developing along the dryline this afternoon across the
eastern South Plains. Confidence in convection at this point is
rather low as upper lift will be lacking with lift relying mostly on
surface convergence which is also not much to get excited about.
Nonetheless, a mention of isolated storms has been added before 00Z
as there is a non-zero chance for convection. Any convection should
be short lived and could be strong to low end severe with wind gusts
up to 60 mph and hail up to half dollar size being possible.

Tonight through Monday morning will be fairly quiet. Upper flow will
remain out of the southwest. A lee surface low will develop after
sunset this evening ahead of an embedded shortwave. This will help
to keep surface winds mostly out of the southwest tonight and will
keep overnight lows in the 50s and 60s. A second surface low will
develop across eastern Colorado by early noon Monday as upper low over
northern California pushes southward into southern California and
begins pushing eastward. This will tighten the surface pressure
gradient and allow for a breezy Monday afternoon. Sustained winds
around 20 mph out of the southwest can be expected.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Unsettled southwest flow loiters through late week accompanied by
daily chances for thunderstorms, primarily off the Caprock near the
mean dryline's position most days and nights. Monday night should
see the dryline retreat onto portions of the Caprock ahead of a
shortwave trough, but this wave is not schedule to reach the
forecast area until Tuesday night. Nonetheless, convective temps look
reachable Tuesday afternoon off the Caprock with a likelihood for
the dryline to retreat once again Tuesday night supporting low PoPs
on the South Plains, mainly as a Pacific front overtakes this
boundary. Severe potential in in the cards given ample shear and
MUCAPEs pushing 2000 J/kg.

Hump day is shaping up the most stable day all week on the heels of
Tuesday night's trough and weak FROPA. Gulf moisture returns on
Thursday ahead of a more vigorous trough entering the Intermountain
West. Models still differ with PoPs Thursday night accompanying a
lead impulse and this is captured by the NBM's broad 20 PoPs.
Stronger and deeper SW flow on Friday following this lead wave look
to mix the dryline out of much of our area ahead of a cold front
dropping south Friday night. This front and dryline will support low
PoPs in the Rolling Plains overnight before much cooler northerlies
round out the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

VFR conditions will prevail. There is a very low chance for
thunderstorms at the terminals between 20Z-00Z. Confidence is too
low for a TAF mention. Primary threats from any convection will be
wind gusts up to 50 knots and hail up to 1.5 inch in diameter.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Elevated to critical fire weather danger is expected Monday
afternoon mainly across the far southern Texas Panhandle and
northern South Plains. While some areas did receive wetting rains
Saturday, most areas missed out and remain dry which is reflected in
ERCs around the 70th percentile. Afternoon relative humidity will
drop into the mid teens area wide while 20 foot winds will be out of
the southwest around 15-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph. A Red Flag
Warning has been issued for much of the southern Texas Panhandle and
northern South Plains from 11 AM through 8 PM Monday. An RFD is not
currently anticipated for areas south of the RFW, but one is not
fully out of the question. Those areas received more widespread
wetting rainfall. This will help with green-up and make fuels dry
more slowly.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for TXZ021>024-
027>029.

&&

SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...51

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1134 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

TXZ021>044-131645-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd-
Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum-
Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
1134 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains, and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a low chance of thunderstorms over the Rolling Plains and
eastern South Plains this afternoon and evening. Damaging winds up
to 60 mph and large hail up to half dollar size would be the main
threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Thunderstorm chances return Tuesday evening and will continue each
evening thereafter through Saturday, mainly off the Caprock.

Critical fire weather conditions are possible Wednesday through
Friday across portions of the far southern Texas Panhandle and South
Plains.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.