Flash Flood Warning 6, NWS Lubbock, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1227 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1226 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

 - Showers and storms, some with heavy rain, shifting off the
   Caprock this afternoon.

 - Low chances for showers and storms Wednesday and Thursday
   followed by better chances Friday and Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Welcome rain was slowly ending over the South Plains early this
afternoon ahead of a decaying MCV. This circulation will continue to
drift north from near Levelland to Dimmitt this afternoon while
advecting drier air around itself, so rainfall coverage and
intensity will trend lower over the Caprock as a whole. A window for
weak and brief non-supercell tornadoes (NST) will linger over the
far southwest TX Panhandle through 1 PM along an axis of low-
level CAPE with low LFCs and rich surface vorticity. This NST
threat should quickly shift north and out of our forecast area.
Off the Caprock meanwhile, deeper ascent preceding a broad
negatively-tilted trough will sustain a greater coverage of showers
and storms through the afternoon. Ahead of this trough, deep
southeast flow from the surface to 500 mb complete with PWATs
around 1.5 inches will make for efficient rainfall and localized
flooding, particularly with any training cells. Farther south in
the Permian Basin, CAMs are keen to advect another MCV northward
later today which should prolong PoPs over the eastern half of the
forecast area before a steady downturn in precip takes hold tonight
on the heels of the upper trough.

After some lingering stratus Wednesday morning, sunshine will return
to much of the area under deeper and drier westerly flow. With a
compact upper low forecast to develop in western TX Panhandle and
drift north through the day, much of the area stands to see quiet
and dry weather given poor support for ascent. NBM's rain chances
were pulled much lower with only 20-30 PoPs relegated to our
northern zones nearest the upper low. High temps will be coolest
across the north with 80s making a return elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Upper ridging builds Wednesday night through Thursday making for
mostly dry conditions until a slow-moving upper low lifts across the
Four Corners on Friday and spreads stronger WSW flow our way. In
addition to a subtropical jet shifting overhead, a dryline should
make a return to eastern NM and focus better chances for storms on
the Caprock. Severe prospects would be in play given the pattern and
growing support from various medium-range AI NWPs. Thereafter, a
semi-active pattern of southwest flow aloft should carry into early
next week with daily chances for storms continuing.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

LBB should be clear of TSRA by 18Z, though some additions rain
showers will be possible over the next several hours and will
include MVFR CIGs. PVW conditions will lag LBB by an hour or two.
Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms remain near CDS and will
not clear the terminal until around 00Z. VFR conditions will
temporarily prevail at the terminals through midnight before MVFR
to possibly IFR CIGs move overhead. Conditions should improve to
VFR after 12Z.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...51

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1118 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

TXZ021>044-271630-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd-
Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum-
Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
1118 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains, and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rain will primarily
affect the Rolling Plains and far southern Texas Panhandle this
afternoon and evening. The threat for severe thunderstorms is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Daily chances for thunderstorms will continue over portions of the
outlook area through Monday. Severe thunderstorms will be possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1204 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

TXZ021-022-261800-
Castro TX-Parmer TX-
1204 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PARMER AND WESTERN CASTRO
COUNTIES THROUGH 100 PM CDT...

At 1204 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm
capable of producing a landspout 7 miles north of Lazbuddie, or 10
miles southeast of Friona, moving northwest at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Landspouts, wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph, and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible. Gusty winds
         could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured
         objects.

Locations impacted include...
Dimmitt, Friona, Bovina, Summerfield, Easter, Lazbuddie, Oklahoma
Lane, Rhea, and Black.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3475 10218 3444 10214 3431 10276 3446 10305
      3475 10304
TIME...MOT...LOC 1704Z 140DEG 19KT 3451 10262

LANDSPOUT...POSSIBLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

12

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1228 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

TXZ043-044-261800-
Kent TX-Stonewall TX-
1228 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EASTERN KENT AND SOUTHWESTERN
STONEWALL COUNTIES THROUGH 100 PM CDT...

At 1228 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles southeast of Clairemont, or 16 miles south of Jayton, moving
north at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Jayton, Peacock, and Clairemont.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3297 10083 3333 10069 3322 10042 3299 10021
      3296 10032
TIME...MOT...LOC 1728Z 195DEG 15KT 3301 10062

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

12

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1233 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

TXZ023-261800-
Swisher TX-
1233 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN SWISHER COUNTY THROUGH
100 PM CDT...

At 1232 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles east of Tulia, moving north at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Tulia, Happy, and Vigo Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3447 10149 3444 10176 3475 10196 3475 10148
TIME...MOT...LOC 1732Z 168DEG 14KT 3454 10162

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

12

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1242 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

TXZ023-024-030-261815-
Floyd TX-Briscoe TX-Swisher TX-
1242 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN FLOYD...SOUTHEASTERN
SWISHER AND SOUTHWESTERN BRISCOE COUNTIES THROUGH 115 PM CDT...

At 1242 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm
capable of producing a landspout near South Plains, or 16 miles south
of Silverton, moving northwest at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Landspouts, wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph, and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible. Gusty winds
         could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured
         objects.

Locations impacted include...
Floydada, Silverton, Lockney, South Plains, and Claytonville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3452 10120 3403 10107 3395 10135 3428 10157
      3431 10157 3431 10159 3436 10162 3450 10143
TIME...MOT...LOC 1742Z 151DEG 16KT 3424 10125

LANDSPOUT...POSSIBLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

12

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