Flash Flood Warning 50, NWS Lubbock, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
617 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 608 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

- Scattered storms are expected this afternoon and evening (30-50%
  chance. Locally heavy rainfall and sporadic gusty winds are
  possible.

- Isolated showers and storms could linger into Sunday (15-30%
  chance). Severe storms are not expected.

- Hot and dry conditions return next week, with highs in the upper
  90s to mid 100s. Heat Advisories may be needed for areas off the
  Caprock.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

*** SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THROUGH TONIGHT ***

A slow-moving upper low continues to linger over the region, which
result in scattered showers and storms percolating during the
morning. Convection west of I-27 finally waned in intensity and
coverage as of 1115am/1615z, albeit slower than CAMs suggested.
This lull in precip is expected to be relatively short-lived, as
daytime heating and a moist airmass result in building instability
this afternoon. CAPE values are progged to reach 1000-2000 J/kg
by mid- afternoon, highest off the Caprock. CAMs suggest
additional convective development by 3-4 PM (20-21z) today, with
scattered storms then persisting through the evening and waning
after midnight. Confidence is not particularly high regarding the
location of storms, but in general the chances are higher across
our southern three rows of counties (30-50% chance) compared to
our northern row of counties (15-30% chance).

The top concern with the storms this evening is locally heavy
rainfall and flash flooding potential. This is owing to
precipitable water (PWAT) values over 1.5", which is above the
climatological 90th percentile, and slow storm motions (cloud
layer winds less than 10 kts). HREF LPMM depicts localized
rainfall amounts over 2-3". Given these signals, a Slight Risk
(level 2 of 4) of Excessive Rainfall has been issued for much of
the CWA through tonight, with the greatest concern for flash
flooding being if any storms occur over urban areas. In addition
to the rainfall, sporadic gusty winds could also occur owing to
evaporative cooling of water- loaded downdrafts. DCAPE values are
forecast to be between 750-1000 J/kg. However, the lack of wind
shear makes organized severe storms unlikely.

The upper low will gradually shift southwest on Sunday, but remain
close enough to help kick off additional showers and storms within
this moist airmass during the day on Sun (20-30% chance). Storm
chances are highest in the SW CWA, which will be closest to the
upper low.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

*** SUMMER HEAT RETURNS ***

The upper low finally shifts southwest by Sun night, and drier
mid-level air shifts in from the north. Between the arrival of
this dry air and height rises aloft into the week, the forecast
for a hot and dry week remains on track. An upper ridge currently
centered over the central Rockies will shift south and strengthen,
becoming centered over TX/OK by mid-week. There is strong
ensemble consensus (greater than 90% chance) that this ridge will
produce a broad area where 500mb heights are above at least 594
dam.

A gradual warming trend is anticipated during the week, with highs
initially in the low to mid 90s on Monday but steadily warming
from there. It appears increasingly likely that Heat Advisories
will be needed for areas off the Caprock, especially late in the
week. The latest NBM has a 50-70% chance for temps above 105F off
the Caprock each day Thursday-next Sunday. The potential of
reaching advisory criteria is lower on the Caprock (10-30%
chance), but it will still be hot with highs near or into the low
100s by late week. The nights also stay quite warm, with lows
only forecast to fall into the mid/upper 70s off the Caprock. These
forecast values are near record warm low temps. At Childress, the
record warm lows during the Jul 23-25 time frame are 79 or 80F,
depending on the specific date chosen.

While the official forecast only runs through Sat Jul 25, above
normal temps are likely to persist through the end of July, with
the Climate Prediction Center outlook showing a 60-70% chance of
above normal temps during the last week of the month. Normal high
temps for late July are in the mid 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 608 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Scattered thunderstorms remain in the vicinity of each terminal.
These storms have been random in development and longevity,
therefore uncertainty is high if storms will impact the terminals,
therefore have kept light rain and thunderstorm tempo in the TAF.
Many outflow are passing across the region and can expect many
more outflows as storm chances prevail through this evening. Can
expect gusty, variable winds with the passage of any outflow.
Thunderstorm chances dwindle shortly after sunset, however
outflows from dissipating storms will prevail. Once all the storms
and outflows clear the region, the rest of the night will be quiet
with VFR conditions. Light to moderate southerly winds will
prevail through the end of the TAF period. Slight rain chances
return to KLBB and KPVW towards the end of this TAF period.
However, left out of TAF as location of storms remains uncertain
at the moment.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...10

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
345 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

TXZ021>044-190845-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd-
Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum-
Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
345 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains, and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A few isolated to scattered showers will linger across areas On the
Caprock this morning, decreasing in coverage by late morning.

A secondary chance for showers and storms will develop Saturday
afternoon and evening, tracking southward through the Caprock
regions. The severe threat remains low with the primary hazard being
locally heavy rainfall and a few localized stronger wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Low chances for thunderstorms return to areas primarily west of the
I-27 corridor Sunday afternoon.

Hot temperatures return to the Caprock regions by mid-week next week,
with highs climbing near Heat Advisory thresholds.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
632 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

TXZ031-032-190000-
Motley TX-Cottle TX-
632 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN MOTLEY AND
NORTHWESTERN COTTLE COUNTIES THROUGH 700 PM CDT...

At 631 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles east of Cee Vee, or 13 miles north of Paducah. This
thunderstorm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Cee Vee.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3418 10017 3406 10057 3423 10063 3431 10032
      3431 10022
TIME...MOT...LOC 2331Z 344DEG 3KT 3421 10036

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

23

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
634 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

TXZ021-190000-
Parmer TX-
634 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WESTERN PARMER COUNTY THROUGH
700 PM CDT...

At 633 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles northeast of Bovina, or 8 miles southwest of Friona, moving
southwest at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Friona, Bovina, and Oklahoma Lane.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3467 10277 3455 10266 3434 10287 3453 10304
      3457 10304
TIME...MOT...LOC 2333Z 052DEG 8KT 3455 10283

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

23

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
636 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

TXZ027-033-190000-
Bailey TX-Cochran TX-
636 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN BAILEY AND
NORTHWESTERN COCHRAN COUNTIES THROUGH 700 PM CDT...

At 635 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Maple, or 12 miles northwest of Morton, moving southwest at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Enochs, Muleshoe Wildlife Refuge, and Maple.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3393 10304 3403 10278 3382 10271 3364 10305
TIME...MOT...LOC 2335Z 057DEG 5KT 3389 10286

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

23

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
641 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0626 PM     Flash Flood      Friona                  34.64N 102.73W
07/18/2026                   Parmer             TX   Public

            Video feed of torrential rain and extensive
            street flooding and inundation of low spots
            in and around Friona ISD. A nearby rain
            gauge measured 1.15 inches of rain, most of
            which fell in 20 minutes.

&&

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