Flash Flood Warning 32, NWS Lubbock, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
605 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 603 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

 - Isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, some with
   damaging wind gusts.

 - Hot temperatures through Thursday with additional chances for
   late-day storms.

 - Weak cold front Thursday night followed by another front this
   weekend with greater chances for storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Following some morning stratus, ample moisture to the tune of low 70
dewpoints was beginning to mix out over the western South Plains as
of 11 AM along a developing dryline. The dryline won't have much
push today as winds throughout the low and mid and levels are quite
weak at 15 knots or less, so by mid-afternoon this boundary should
reside near a Morton to Silverton line. Although weak, southwesterly
flow aloft is host to a subtle shortwave trough evident on water
vapor imagery in far southeast NM late this morning. As both this
impulse and an upper jet reach the western South Plains by 3-5 PM,
the stage should be set for convective initiation along the dryline
as CIN erodes to near zero from strong heating and modest background
cooling/ascent. Confidence in storms is higher, so isolated coverage
was added from 4 PM to 10 PM which may prove too conservative based
on some CAMs. Similar to yesterday, tall inverted-v soundings with
LCLs around 9000 feet and CAPEs of 1500 J/kg are shown to support
downdraft CAPEs of nearly 2000 J/kg, so microbursts are once again
in the cards until storms taper after sunset.

Overnight, an upper high over East Texas peels farther away allowing
our heights and thicknesses to draw lower for Tuesday. This will
keep high temps 5-10 degrees lower than today as the moist sector
expands into eastern NM keeping the dryline well away from us. Along
with this deeper moist sector comes a threat for more low stratus
around daybreak Tuesday as dewpoints climb to around 70, before
mixing out into the lower 60s in the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Tuesday evening opens with a low chance for storms in eastern NM
drifting east and possibly affecting our southwest Panhandle
counties. This feat could be aided by improved steering flow of
around 20 knots south of a shortwave trough grazing our area, but
most guidance keeps precip well to our north and northwest. As winds
aloft veer more westerly for Wednesday, a low-level thermal ridge
will overspread the forecast area resulting in hotter temps and a
return of the dryline. Most models are very muted with convection
along the dryline despite strong heating and negligible CIN, so
later forecasts may need to consider some low PoPs. Weakly cyclonic
westerly flow remains with us on Thursday and PoPs trend higher
particularly later in the day as a weak cold front arrives courtesy
of a stronger trough rotating across the Corn Belt. The ECMWF is
faster with both of these features which would support cooler highs
on Thursday, but for now highs in the upper 90s and lower 100s
remain on tap. This cold front should stall nearby on Friday and
focus additional chances for storms until a stronger front fuels
even greater rain chances later this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 603 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Showers and thunderstorms are possible at KLBB over the next
couple of hours. Gusty and erratic winds are possible within
storms. MFVR appears likely in the hours around sunrise with
periods of IFR possible at KLBB through mid-morning. VFR will
continue thereafter.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...19

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1003 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

TXZ021>044-091515-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd-
Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum-
Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
1003 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains, and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Isolated thunderstorms are expected later this afternoon and evening,
generally from the southwest South Plains to the far southeast Texas
Panhandle. Damaging wind gusts to 70 mph and will be the primary
threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Low storm chances continue most days before greater chances develop
this weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
355 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

TXZ028-029-082130-
Lamb TX-Hale TX-
355 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN HALE AND EAST
CENTRAL LAMB COUNTIES THROUGH 430 PM CDT...

At 355 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles northeast of Spade, or 14 miles south of Olton, moving
northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Hale Center, Cotton Center, and Spade.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3388 10214 3397 10221 3417 10198 3399 10178
TIME...MOT...LOC 2055Z 239DEG 14KT 3398 10209

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

CWA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
358 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

TXZ028-029-082130-
Lamb TX-Hale TX-
358 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN HALE AND EAST
CENTRAL LAMB COUNTIES THROUGH 430 PM CDT...

At 358 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles west of Cotton Center, or 13 miles south of Olton, moving
northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Hale Center, Cotton Center, and Spade.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3388 10214 3397 10221 3417 10198 3399 10178
TIME...MOT...LOC 2058Z 239DEG 14KT 3398 10208

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

CWA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
455 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

TXZ034-035-082230-
Hockley TX-Lubbock TX-
455 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN LUBBOCK AND
NORTHEASTERN HOCKLEY COUNTIES THROUGH 530 PM CDT...

At 455 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles west of Shallowater, or 15 miles northwest of Lubbock, moving
east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Lubbock, Shallowater, Texas Tech University, Lubbock South Plains
Mall, Reese Center, Downtown Lubbock, New Deal, and Lubbock Science
Spectrum.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3356 10211 3381 10212 3381 10178 3351 10187
TIME...MOT...LOC 2155Z 266DEG 16KT 3372 10208

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

CWA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
515 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

TXZ034-082245-
Hockley TX-
515 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL HOCKLEY COUNTY THROUGH
545 PM CDT...

At 515 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Levelland, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Levelland, Smyer, and Opdyke West.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3349 10239 3365 10247 3379 10221 3356 10210
TIME...MOT...LOC 2215Z 246DEG 12KT 3360 10236

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

CWA

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