Flash Flood Warning 25, NWS Lubbock, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1220 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1220 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

 - Additional chances for thunderstorms this afternoon through
   Saturday night.

 - Drier and hotter weather Sunday through next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

A nicely wound mid and upper low was found about 150 miles south
of El Paso at noon and was keeping us locked in a wealth of
moisture with deep southerly flow. Even with a broad upper trough
axis arcing SW-NE atop the forecast area, ascent has been slow to
evolve thus far thanks to a pesky shield of cirriform clouds
curbing insolation. The back edge of these clouds was clearing
our western column of counties which should yield enough heating
and destabilization for afternoon storms that slowly expand
eastward behind the departing cirrus. A few pockets of clearing
well off the Caprock with widespread lower 70 dewpoints may also
fuel some storms. CAMs and coarser models remain at odds with
convective placement today due to such weak forcing, so opted to
align afternoon PoPs with satellite trends that favor precip for
our far southwest and eastern zones, with a lull in between.
Ample PWATs around of 1.2" to 1.5" with weak steering flow and
tall/narrow CAPE profiles supports more pulse storms with some
severe wind gusts, but moreso heavy rain and some localized
flooding.

As the upper low mobilizes northeast tonight and reaches the
Permian Basin by daybreak, ascent will tick higher downstream of
the low all the while instability wanes. Wouldn't be surprised if
nocturnal storms prove more efficient than CAMs suggest given the
ample moisture, deeper ascent, and modest LLJ that could easily
offset weaker CAPEs, so have kept PoPs in the solid chance
category for many areas after midnight. With the low crawling into
the Rolling Plains during the day Saturday, PoPs will be kept
highest off the Caprock with residual chances clinging on
elsewhere courtesy of favorable daytime heating with PWATs holding
around 1.2".

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

The column slowly dries out Saturday night as subsidence deepens
following the departure of an upper low and its parent trough axis.
This will herald the transition to rising heights, thicknesses, and
unfortunately hotter temperatures as soon as Sunday as an upper high
relocates from the northeast gulf to the Texas coast by early
next week. With the high poised to our southeast early next week,
lee troughing looks sufficient for some breezy afternoons,
especially come Tuesday as a shortwave trough depresses the ridge
locally. The ridge then expands its grip over much of Texas for
the remainder of the week keeping us mostly high and dry. The one
exception to this dry theme would be the dryline which should camp
out in our area most days under weak WSW flow with strong heating
readily available. The NBM does draw into this potential for
Wednesday and Thursday, albeit these low PoPs look optimistic at
this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

VFR and light winds outside of TS. Should see some slow-moving TS
develop this afternoon just about anywhere, but coverage appears too
limited to keep a mention in the TAFs. TS may cycle on/off through
the night.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...93

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1102 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

TXZ021>044-061615-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd-
Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum-
Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
1102 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains, and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Some thunderstorms will redevelop this afternoon and evening with a
threat for locally heavy rain, flooding, and strong wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Thunderstorm chances continue Saturday, with higher chances off the
Caprock.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
214 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

TXZ024-025-051930-
Briscoe TX-Hall TX-
214 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN HALL AND
NORTHEASTERN BRISCOE COUNTIES THROUGH 230 PM CDT...

At 214 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles west of Brice, or 15 miles north of Caprock Canyon State Park,
moving northeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Brice.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3451 10095 3461 10126 3475 10120 3475 10075
TIME...MOT...LOC 1914Z 206DEG 10KT 3466 10109

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

12

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
225 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

TXZ027-033-052000-
Bailey TX-Cochran TX-
225 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN BAILEY AND
NORTHWESTERN COCHRAN COUNTIES THROUGH 300 PM CDT...

At 225 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles northeast of Bledsoe, or 12 miles west of Morton, moving
northeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Bledsoe and Maple.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3385 10305 3391 10303 3382 10269 3356 10297
      3362 10305
TIME...MOT...LOC 1925Z 206DEG 10KT 3370 10298

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

12

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
235 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

TXZ037-038-043-044-052000-
Dickens TX-Kent TX-King TX-Stonewall TX-
235 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT EASTERN KENT...SOUTHEASTERN
DICKENS...SOUTHERN KING AND STONEWALL COUNTIES THROUGH 300 PM CDT...

At 234 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms over Swenson, or 6 miles northwest of Aspermont, moving
north at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Aspermont, Jayton, Girard, Peacock, Old Glory, Swenson, Clairemont,
and Us-380 Near The Haskell-Stonewall County Line.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3297 10088 3361 10051 3360 9999 3296 9999
TIME...MOT...LOC 1934Z 200DEG 23KT 3321 10030

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

12

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
258 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

TXZ037-038-043-044-052030-
Dickens TX-Kent TX-King TX-Stonewall TX-
258 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT KENT...SOUTHERN DICKENS...
SOUTHERN KING AND WESTERN STONEWALL COUNTIES THROUGH 330 PM CDT...

At 258 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Jayton, moving north at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Spur, Jayton, Girard, Peacock, Swenson, and Clairemont.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3300 10042 3300 10082 3353 10094 3361 10051
      3354 10007
TIME...MOT...LOC 1958Z 198DEG 16KT 3326 10051

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

12