Severe Thunderstorm Warning 7, NWS St. Louis, MO

031 
WWUS53 KLSX 070850
SVSLSX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
250 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

MOC019-027-070900-
/O.CAN.KLSX.SV.W.0007.000000T0000Z-260307T0915Z/
Boone MO-Callaway MO-
250 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR SOUTHEASTERN BOONE
AND NORTHERN CALLAWAY COUNTIES...

The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 600 AM CST for a
portion of central Missouri.

&&

LAT...LON 3883 9244 3906 9199 3906 9164 3891 9164
      3871 9234 3872 9234 3874 9239 3875 9241
      3877 9241 3878 9239 3880 9238 3882 9238
      3882 9242
TIME...MOT...LOC 0831Z 240DEG 48KT 3878 9234

$$

Carney

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1115 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms will move into the area tonight. One or two may be
  severe between midnight and 6am in northeast MO, southeast MO,
  and west-central IL. Damaging winds and a brief tornado are the primary
  hazards.

- This weekend will be dry and breezy. Temperatures will drop
  during the day Saturday behind a cold front.

- There is another chance of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday into
  Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Saturday Night)
Issued at 255 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

20z surface analysis shows a low pressure system in central Kansas
with a dryline extending south through the OK and TX and a cold
front bending back into Colorado. The stationary front that brought
us persistent cloud cover all week now sits in the Upper Midwest,
leaving the Mid-Mississippi Valley within an open warm sector. To
call it warm is nearly an understatement. Temperatures have rocketed
through the morning, with KSTL reporting 79 degrees at noon, 6
degrees from a record high. Even a cloudy, rain-soaked Kirksville
reaching 69 degrees at the same time. This airmass is also very
moist. Dewpoints in the upper 50s and low-60s have taken hold across
the region, with KSTL even breaking their daily high dewpoint record
at noon (61 degrees breaks old record of 60 degrees set in
1974/1973). If this site reaches 65 degrees, it will be the earliest
65 degree dewpoint of the year on record (current earliest: March
8th, 1974).

All of this warmth and moisture has resulted in increased
instability, though where that instability lies in the thermal
profile will likely wobble between this afternoon and tomorrow
morning. As of noon, all guidance and the behavior of ongoing
convection in western and north-central MO suggest it's elevated in
nature. Farther south and southeast, ACARS soundings as well as a
visible developing cu-field show that destabilization is occurring
in the region with about 1500 J/kg of SBCAPE present, but this is so
far away from any forcing that thunderstorm development is slim to
none. The points of interest this afternoon lie in 1) how ongoing
convection will affect the environment for tonight and 2) how
thunderstorms firing in Oklahoma will evolve as they enter southern
Missouri this evening. Confidence is high that discrete supercells
will weaken and congeal as they move farther in time and space from
a more favorable environment. How quickly they weaken will directly
determine tonight's potential hazards. If they remain discrete for
longer, all hazards are on the table including damaging wind, a
brief tornado, and large hail. If they congeal into a/a few bowing
segment(s) and remain strong this far northeast, damaging wind and a
brief tornado will be the primary threats. The last scenario is that
the supercells congeal and weaken substantially before they arrive
in southeast Missouri. In this case, damaging wind and a brief
tornado are still the primary hazards, but the chance of them
occurring is lower than otherwise.

The thunderstorms mentioned above will reach the forecast area ahead
of additional thunderstorms lining a cold front. Although guidance
is still highly variable concerning exact timing and strength of
everything, one constant is that discrete convection in eastern
Kansas will congeal into a QLCS and weaken by the time it arrives in
central and northeast Missouri by 07-08z due to waning daytime
instability. This deterioration may also be aided by the arrival of
the pre-frontal thunderstorms eating up the little remaining
instability left, but this is uncertain. In fact, the two systems
merging may create a brief uptick in intensity before they ruin each
other completely. In short, this is an ever-evolving situation.
Although our confidence in severe weather occurring tonight is
decreasing, the environment this afternoon and evening will need to
be monitored closely for any changes.

Showers and thunderstorms won't exit the area completely until
nearly noon tomorrow, late enough for daytime instability to build
back up and for additional showers to fire along the 925 mb front.
These showers are expected to develop into thunderstorms with time,
but that likely won't occur until they exit our CWA completely to
the southeast in the early afternoon. What will be more noticeable
tomorrow are the falling temperatures through the day. 24 hour
high temperatures for all but southeast Missouri and southwest
Illinois will occur near midnight, with afternoon "highs" only
reaching the 40s and 50s for the northwestern half of the CWA.
This is 20 - 30 degrees cooler than today's near record warmth,
and breezy conditions will make that apparent.

Jaja

&&

.LONG TERM...  (Sunday through Next Friday)
Issued at 255 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Saturday's cooler weather won't last long. By Sunday, afternoon
temperatures will rebound into the 60s areawide, and by Monday highs
in near 80 degrees are expected to make a return. This period will
also be dry, creating great conditions for outdoor activities. The
peace ends Tuesday into Wednesday, though, as another cold front
approaches and brings the potential for severe weather back into the
forecast. There is still ample variability among guidance concerning
Tuesday's severe threat stemming from the upper level pattern. A
cutoff low in Baja California is expected to push east along the
US/Mexico border before ejecting energy into the Mid-Mississippi
Valley during the timeframe in question. How strong this low/trough
is and its exact location by that time, however, are still very
uncertain. For this reason, though we're confident in precipitation
falling during this period, PoPs are smeared between Monday night
and Wednesday. As models become more aligned, expect this long
stretch of probabilities to become more focused in time and location.

Jaja

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1110 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to progress west to east
across Missouri and into Illinois tonight. A few thunderstorms may
be strong to severe early in the TAF period with intensity waning
through early Saturday morning. The main concern will be localized
gusty winds to around 50 knots within the strongest cells. The
greatest potential lines up from central MO terminals through the
metro terminals from issuance of this update through about 11z.
IFR/MVFR conditions will accompany thunderstorms with a mix of
MVFR/VFR outside thunderstorms.

A cold front will sweep through the area by mid-morning to early
afternoon with a period of MVFR stratus. Improvement is expected
through Saturday afternoon as northwesterly winds draw in drier
air.

Maples

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

WFO LSX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service St Louis MO
255 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-072100-
Greene IL-Macoupin IL-Montgomery IL-Bond IL-Fayette IL-Clinton IL-
Marion IL-Washington IL-Randolph IL-Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL-
Calhoun IL-Jersey IL-Madison IL-Saint Clair IL-Monroe IL-Knox MO-
Lewis MO-Shelby MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-Pike MO-Boone MO-
Audrain MO-Moniteau MO-Cole MO-Osage MO-Callaway MO-Montgomery MO-
Lincoln MO-Gasconade MO-Warren MO-Saint Charles MO-Franklin MO-
Saint Louis MO-Saint Louis City MO-Jefferson MO-Crawford MO-
Washington MO-Saint Francois MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Iron MO-
Madison MO-Reynolds MO-
255 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern and
central Missouri as well as west central and southwest Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms will move through the area tonight. A few may be
severe. Primary hazards are damaging wind and a brief tornado.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

There is a chance of thunderstorms Monday night through Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

Jaja

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
1059 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 NE Easley             38.83N 92.35W
03/06/2026                   Boone              MO   Emergency Mngr

            Tree reported down on roadway.

&&

CP

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
1102 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1040 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 NE Columbia           38.97N 92.30W
03/06/2026                   Boone              MO   Emergency Mngr

            Report of electric pole down on the roadway.

&&

CP

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
1114 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1039 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     7 ESE Columbia          38.90N 92.22W
03/06/2026  M68 MPH          Boone              MO   Mesonet

            Bradford Farm Missouri Mesonet weather
            station measured wind gust.

&&

CP

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
1123 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1035 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     6 NE Easley             38.87N 92.32W
03/06/2026                   Boone              MO   Emergency Mngr

            Report of a tree down on the roadway.

&&

CP

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
1127 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1035 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     4 S Columbia            38.90N 92.31W
03/06/2026                   Boone              MO   Emergency Mngr

            Report of a 10 inch diameter tree over the
            roadway.

&&

CP