Severe Thunderstorm Warning 217, NWS St. Louis, MO

461 
WWUS53 KLSX 110147
SVSLSX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
847 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

ILC061-083-110200-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0217.000000T0000Z-260711T0200Z/
Greene IL-Jersey IL-
847 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN GREENE AND JERSEY COUNTIES...

At 847 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line from
near Carrollton to over Jerseyville, or along a line from 10 miles
north of Jerseyville to over Jerseyville, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
  Woody, Carrollton, Otterville, Kane, Old Kane, Jerseyville,
  McClusky, Delhi, Rockbridge, Greenfield, Kemper and Fidelity.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter inside a well-built structure and stay away from
windows. These storms are capable of producing damaging winds.

Wind damage with these storms will occur before any rain or
lightning. Do not wait for the sound of thunder before taking cover.
Seek shelter immediately inside a sturdy structure and stay away from
windows.

&&

LAT...LON 3930 9051 3935 9018 3917 9015 3900 9015
      3900 9027 3899 9039 3909 9045 3922 9051
TIME...MOT...LOC 0121Z 261DEG 34KT 3923 9064 3913 9064 3905 9064

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

LE

170 
WWUS53 KLSX 110151
SVSLSX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
851 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

ILC061-083-110200-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0217.000000T0000Z-260711T0200Z/
Greene IL-Jersey IL-
851 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN GREENE AND EASTERN JERSEY COUNTIES...

At 851 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line from
near Carrollton to 5 miles northwest of Brighton, or along a line
from 10 miles north of Jerseyville to 6 miles east of Jerseyville,
moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
  Jerseyville, Woody, McClusky, Old Kane, Kane, Delhi, Carrollton,
  Fidelity, Kemper, Rockbridge and Greenfield.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter inside a well-built structure and stay away from
windows. These storms are capable of producing damaging winds.

&&

LAT...LON 3930 9051 3935 9018 3917 9015 3900 9015
      3900 9031 3910 9042 3922 9051
TIME...MOT...LOC 0147Z 262DEG 34KT 3925 9042 3916 9032 3908 9026

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

LE

731 
WWUS53 KLSX 110158
SVSLSX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
858 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

ILC061-083-110208-
/O.EXP.KLSX.SV.W.0217.000000T0000Z-260711T0200Z/
Greene IL-Jersey IL-
858 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN GREENE AND EASTERN JERSEY COUNTIES...

The storms which prompted the warning have weakened below severe
limits, and no longer pose an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire. However, gusty
winds are still possible with these thunderstorms.

&&

LAT...LON 3930 9051 3935 9018 3917 9015 3900 9015
      3900 9031 3910 9042 3922 9051
TIME...MOT...LOC 0151Z 262DEG 34KT 3926 9037 3917 9027 3909 9021

$$

LE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service St Louis MO
252 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The threat for (additional) flash flooding remains the top
  concern through Saturday. Areas that saw 6-12+" of rain are
  most susceptible to additional flooding.

- A few storms may be strong to severe this afternoon/evening
  and again Saturday afternoon. Damaging winds are the primary
  threat.

- Drier weather with temperatures close to normal is forecast
  Sunday into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 248 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

GOES-19 water vapor imagery shows a pronounced midlevel
shortwave across the mid-Missouri Valley moving east. Lift along
with cooling temperatures aloft should help initiate additional
convection over the next couple of hours, most likely
east/southeast along a weak surface frontal boundary/trough
axis. This is where convergence is strongest near the surface.
There may also be another more subtle disturbance in southeast
Kansas/southwest Missouri. This feature is also moving east, and
instability is building downstream across southeast Missouri.
The latest SPC mesoanalysis shows over 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE with
little/no CIN. There is not perfect overlap between the higher
instability (in southeast Missouri) with the higher effective
shear, which resides in northeast Missouri downstream of the
aforementioned midlevel shortwave trough. A few storms across
the area may be strong to severe from late this afternoon
through mid/late evening, with damaging winds the primary
threat.

The main concern however continues to be on the heavy rainfall
threat and the potential for renewed flash flooding. Weather wise,
we are expecting the coverage of showers and thunderstorms to
increase late this evening into the early overnight hours as the low-
level jet strengthens. The jet is quite a bit weaker than last
night, so we are not expecting as much organization as last night
and overall amounts should be a lot less. However, ANY significant
rainfall in the northwest-southeast axis across southeast Missouri
that saw 6-12+" of rain will be of greatest concern and
susceptibility. Unfortunately, it does appear that areas south of I-
70 in Missouri are more likely to see the heavier rainfall totals
tonight. The LPMM of the HREF and REFS show pockets of 1" to as much
as 3" through Saturday morning, and this aligns well with our
expectations.

The synoptic midlevel shortwave trough is forecast to gradually move
south/southeast on Saturday beneath the amplifying mid/upper level
ridge. The wave has trended farther south/southwest (and slower)
with time. That means a continued threat for at least scattered
showers and thunderstorms through much of the day on Saturday, with
a focus along/ahead of this feature. That means east/southeast
Missouri and southwest Illinois will be most favored for additional
showers/thunderstorms. Needless to say, any rainfall in parts of
southeast Missouri would not be good. Total rain amounts of 2-4"
through Saturday afternoon are possible in the watch area, with
locally higher amounts potentially within locations that get
repeatedly impacted.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 248 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

(Saturday Night - Sunday)

The midlevel wave/closed low should move far enough south to end the
heavy rainfall threat Saturday night, though we will have to keep a
close eye on its equatorward progression. Even slower guidance
though focuses the low-level jet well to the south of our CWA, so
while some shower activity or even a rumble of thunder may linger in
our southern counties early Saturday night, the expectation is for
the threat for (new) flash flooding to be over.

Isolated to widely scattered showers/weak thunderstorms may
redevelop Sunday afternoon near the closed low/shear axis. Similar
to Saturday night though, the threat for flash flooding looks quite
low. The atmosphere is also not as supportive as warm cloud depths
are not as deep and precipitable water values drop to near 1.6"
(~75th percentile) of climatology. Therefore, any individual
showers/weak thunderstorms should not be nearly as efficient as days
prior.

(Sunday Night - Next Friday)

There has been a subtle shift in the mid/upper level pattern into
early/mind next week. While the record-breaking ridge will still
build to our north across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest, the
pesky midlevel shortwave/shear axis now seems likely to retrograde
westward around the southern periphery of the ridge. This means
continued low (~15-30%) chances of showers/weak thunderstorms mainly
in central/southeast Missouri and focused diurnally. Similar to
Saturday night/Sunday, there should not be any real organization or
threat for strong-severe convection nor flash flooding. The
proximity of the midlevel shortwave/shear axis though should tend to
lead to cooler temperatures due to the rain chances mentioned above
and associated cloud cover. Temperatures are now likely to stay
close to normal through at least the middle of next week, if not the
entire week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to redevelop by
mid-late afternoon. There is uncertainty on where storms will be
favored initially, but should tend to shift southward overnight
into Saturday. Brief reductions in visibility along with the
possibility of gusty winds are the main concerns from an
aviation perspective. Lower ceilings are also expected to
develop late tonight, with the best chances at KCOU/KJEF.

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flood Watch through Saturday evening for MOZ047>049-059-062-
     065-072>075-084-085-099.
IL...Flood Watch through Saturday evening for ILZ079-102.

&&

SHORT TERM...Gosselin
LONG TERM...Gosselin
AVIATION...Gosselin

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
641 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0632 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     4 NNE Columbia          39.00N 92.29W
07/10/2026                   Boone              MO   Emergency Mngr

            Tree down on roadway on Brown Station Rd.

&&

Asel

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
655 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Donnellson              39.03N 89.47W
07/10/2026                   Montgomery         IL   Emergency Mngr

            Multiple large tree limbs down in
            Donnellson.

&&

Asel

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
810 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0625 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Hallsville              39.11N 92.23W
07/10/2026                   Boone              MO   Emergency Mngr

            Multiple large trees down across roadways,
            and power lines downs.

&&

Asel

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
813 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Columbia                38.95N 92.33W
07/10/2026                   Boone              MO   Emergency Mngr

            Multiple large trees down across roadways
            and on multiple houses, power lines down
            across Columbia.

&&

Asel

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
814 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     4 E Harrisburg          39.13N 92.38W
07/10/2026                   Boone              MO   Emergency Mngr

            Multiple trees down across roadways, and
            down power lines.

&&

Asel

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
815 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0750 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Wright City             38.83N 91.03W
07/10/2026                   Warren             MO   Emergency Mngr

            Multiple trees down across Wright City.

&&

Asel