Severe Thunderstorm Warning 206, NWS St. Louis, MO

615 
WWUS53 KLSX 042202
SVSLSX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
502 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

ILC133-042212-
/O.CAN.KLSX.SV.W.0206.000000T0000Z-260704T2245Z/
Monroe IL-
502 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR SOUTHEASTERN MONROE
COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN ILLINOIS...

The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled. However, heavy rain is
still possible with this thunderstorm.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 PM CDT for a
portion of southwest Illinois.

&&

LAT...LON 3822 8990 3835 8987 3822 8935 3822 8959
      3796 8960 3782 8968 3780 8967 3785 8974
      3785 8979 3786 8980 3788 8980 3791 8984
      3787 8990 3787 8994 3793 8997 3795 8993
      3796 8993 3797 8994 3796 9000 3801 9006
TIME...MOT...LOC 2142Z 293DEG 27KT 3828 9000

$$


ILC157-163-189-042245-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0206.000000T0000Z-260704T2245Z/
Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-Washington IL-
502 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND RANDOLPH
AND SOUTHEASTERN SAINT CLAIR COUNTIES IN SOUTHWESTERN ILLINOIS...

At 502 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Sparta, moving
southeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
  New Athens, Lenzburg, Evansville, Baldwin, Preston, Marissa, Ellis
  Grove, Houston, Sparta, Tilden, Blair, Eden, Chester, Coulterville,
  Bremen, Oakdale, Steeleville and Percy.

This includes the following State Parks...
Peabody-River King State Fish and Wildlife Area, Piney Creek Ravine
State Natural Area, Randolph County State Recreation Area, World
Shooting and Recreational Complex, Turkey Bluffs State Fish and
Wildlife Area and Kaskaskia River State Fish and Wildlife Area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter inside a well-built structure and stay away from
windows. This storm is capable of producing damaging winds and large
hail.

&&

LAT...LON 3822 8990 3835 8987 3822 8935 3822 8959
      3796 8960 3782 8968 3780 8967 3785 8974
      3785 8979 3786 8980 3788 8980 3791 8984
      3787 8990 3787 8994 3793 8997 3795 8993
      3796 8993 3797 8994 3796 9000 3801 9006
TIME...MOT...LOC 2142Z 298DEG 33KT 3826 8998

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

LE

774 
WWUS53 KLSX 042215
SVSLSX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
515 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

ILC163-189-042225-
/O.CAN.KLSX.SV.W.0206.000000T0000Z-260704T2245Z/
Saint Clair IL-Washington IL-
515 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR SOUTHWESTERN
WASHINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEASTERN SAINT
CLAIR COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN ILLINOIS...

The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled. However, heavy rain is
still possible with this thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 3814 8982 3822 8979 3822 8959 3796 8960
      3782 8968 3780 8967 3785 8974 3785 8979
      3786 8980 3788 8980 3791 8984 3787 8990
      3788 8994 3793 8997 3796 8993 3797 8994
TIME...MOT...LOC 2202Z 298DEG 33KT 3817 8977

$$


ILC157-042245-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0206.000000T0000Z-260704T2245Z/
Randolph IL-
515 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM CDT FOR
RANDOLPH COUNTY...

At 515 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 5 miles south of
Coulterville, or 5 miles southeast of Sparta, moving southeast at 40
mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
  Walsh, Ellis Grove, Houston, Kaskaskia, Sparta, Tilden, New
  Palestine, Blair, Eden, Chester, Coulterville, Bremen, Welge,
  Steeleville, Percy, Rockwood and Shiloh Hill.

This includes the following State Parks...
Piney Creek Ravine State Natural Area, Randolph County State
Recreation Area, World Shooting and Recreational Complex and Turkey
Bluffs State Fish and Wildlife Area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter inside a well-built structure and stay away from
windows. This storm is capable of producing damaging winds and large
hail.

&&

LAT...LON 3814 8982 3822 8979 3822 8959 3796 8960
      3782 8968 3780 8967 3785 8974 3785 8979
      3786 8980 3788 8980 3791 8984 3787 8990
      3788 8994 3793 8997 3796 8993 3797 8994
TIME...MOT...LOC 2202Z 298DEG 33KT 3817 8977

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

LE

412 
WWUS53 KLSX 042242
SVSLSX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
542 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

ILC157-042252-
/O.EXP.KLSX.SV.W.0206.000000T0000Z-260704T2245Z/
Randolph IL-
542 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 545 PM CDT FOR RANDOLPH
COUNTY...

The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire. However, heavy rain
is still possible with this thunderstorm.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 PM CDT for a
portion of southwest Illinois.

&&

LAT...LON 3814 8982 3822 8979 3822 8959 3796 8960
      3782 8968 3780 8967 3785 8974 3785 8979
      3786 8980 3788 8980 3791 8984 3787 8990
      3788 8994 3793 8997 3796 8993 3797 8994
TIME...MOT...LOC 2215Z 298DEG 33KT 3811 8963

$$

LE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
400 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The threat for scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through
  tonight. A few storms will be capable of damaging wind gusts
  for areas south of I-70 through early evening.

- Temperatures remain warm, but below dangerous heat levels
  through next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Sunday Night)
Issued at 359 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

A potent MCS is ongoing across portions of eastern Missouri, and is
tracking along an outflow boundary from convection last night. While
deep-layer shear is a meager ~20 kts, MLCAPE is at 3,000 J/kg per
recent SPC mesoanalysis. With the MCS having a well-established cold
pool, the threat for strong to severe storms will continue through
early this evening east of the MCS for areas mainly south of I-70.

This MCS is scrubbing the atmosphere over much of the area of
instability, leaving a mostly stable environment in place ahead of a
cold front slowly sinking toward the area later this evening and
tonight. While I am keeping a low threat for isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms south of the front over much of the CWA
through tonight, a majority of locations will remain rain free once
the MCS clears the CWA to the southeast this evening.

Tomorrow, the front/effective boundary is expected to be south of
the CWA while a series of disturbances rotate around the base of
subtle trough over the Midwest. The positioning of the boundary will
mark the end of our recent stretch of heat, with most locations
topping out below 90 degrees. However, there will still be enough
warmth and moisture to produce SBCAPE around 1,500 J/kg, enough to
combine with the disturbances to produce a low chance (30%) for
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms through the day.
With this amount of instability and deep-layer shear forecast to be
around 20 kts, organized severe thunderstorms are not expected.

Elmore

&&

.LONG TERM...  (Monday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 359 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

The axis of the upper-level ridge will be centered over the western
U.S. at the start of the workweek, with a weak trough/cutoff over
the Ohio Valley per guidance consensus. This will support the chance
for scattered showers and thunderstorms across portions of the area
during the afternoon. Cutoffs are notorious for being poorly
resolved by guidance, so while the majority of guidance has this
feature weakening and/or drifting eastward through Tuesday, there is
a low chance that it may still be close enough and strong enough to
produce another round of scattered convection on Tuesday.

Tuesday through Thursday, the upper-level ridge broadens across the
CONUS, but begins to deamplify as a shortwave moves through the
Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. For the Middle Mississippi
Valley, this will lead to a subtle upward trend in temperatures
Tuesday through Thursday. Through this stretch, a majority of
guidance is cooler than the period of heat the area has been
experiencing lately, with temperatures being closer to
climatological normals for highs (around 90 degrees).

The aforementioned shortwave pushes a cold front through the region
roughly late Thursday into Friday. A majority of guidance has upper-
level flow becoming increasingly northwesterly at this point in the
period, but to what degree and how quickly vary. This will have
impacts on the front's progression, with a more progressive front
favoring a drier CWA late Friday, while a slower front will linger
rain chances into at least late Friday or Saturday morning. With
most global ensemble members showing some flavor of the latter, the
current forecast lingers rain chances into Saturday morning. At the
very least, ensemble membership shows a drop in temperatures with
the FROPA as we head into next weekend, with a 25% chance of highs
running just under seasonal normals.

Elmore

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

There is a threat for multiple rounds of thunderstorms at all of
the local terminals through the TAF period. Isolated to scattered
showers and storms are in the broader vicinity of all local
terminals except for KUIN, with these posing a threat for early in
the period. Our attention then turns to a cluster of storms moving
eastward out of western Missouri and a cold front sinking
southward into the region late this afternoon and evening.
Both will serve as a focus for a greater threat of thunderstorms
capable of erratic, gusty winds and heavy rainfall. Confidence is
low on the timing of these stronger storms, so chances have been
left to PROB30 groups for now. Once confidence increases, TEMPO or
prevailing groups will be needed for some of the terminals. A lull
in rain chances is expected tonight, with a low chance for showers
and thunderstorms again late in the period tomorrow.

Elmore

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Audrain MO-
     Crawford MO-Iron MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-
     Marion MO-Monroe MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Saint
     Francois MO-Shelby MO-Washington MO.

     Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for Boone MO-
     Callaway MO-Cole MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Jefferson MO-
     Moniteau MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Saint Charles MO-Saint
     Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Warren MO.

IL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Adams IL-Bond IL-
     Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin
     IL-Marion IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL.

     Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for Clinton IL-
     Madison IL-Monroe IL-Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-Washington
     IL.

&&

WFO LSX

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
217 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0213 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 W California          38.63N 92.58W
07/04/2026                   Moniteau           MO   Trained Spotter

            6 inch tree limb snapped on west side of
            California with the gust front passage.

&&

AE

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
337 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 E Weldon Spring       38.72N 90.60W
07/04/2026                   St. Charles        MO   Public

            Power lines down.

&&

BRC

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
429 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0348 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Montgomery City         38.97N 91.50W
07/04/2026                   Montgomery         MO   Trained Spotter

            Multiple limbs down. Limbs are 3-4 inches in
            diameter. Time estimated by radar.

&&

Maples

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
431 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0252 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Loose Creek             38.51N 91.96W
07/04/2026                   Osage              MO   Trained Spotter

            Numerous large trees down around the area.
            The spotter also noted multiple trees down
            on their drive through Osage and Cole
            Counties on their way to Loose Creek. Tome
            estimated by radar.

&&

Maples

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
433 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0333 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Washington              38.55N 91.01W
07/04/2026                   Franklin           MO   Emergency Mngr

            Emergency management reported severe large
            trees down within the Washington city
            limits. Time estimated by radar.

&&

Maples