Severe Thunderstorm Warning 183, NWS St. Louis, MO

434 
WWUS53 KLSX 171412
SVSLSX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
912 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

ILC001-009-149-171500-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0183.000000T0000Z-260617T1500Z/
Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL-
912 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN ADAMS, BROWN AND NORTHEASTERN PIKE COUNTIES IN WEST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

At 912 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 8 miles south of
Clayton, or 12 miles east of Quincy Regional Airport, moving east at
40 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
  Kingston, Beverly, Clayton, Kellerville, Fishhook, Mound Station,
  Buckhorn, Mount Sterling, Perry, Versailles, Chambersburg, Ripley,
  Coopertown and La Grange.

This includes the following State Parks...
Siloam Springs State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter inside a well-built structure and stay away from
windows. This storm is capable of producing damaging winds and large
hail.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 300 PM CDT Wednesday for a
portion of west central Illinois.

&&

LAT...LON 3980 9108 3998 9109 4011 9091 4010 9070
      4009 9071 4008 9069 4008 9067 4005 9067
      4002 9063 4003 9061 4002 9062 4000 9060
      3998 9061 3998 9051 3992 9054 3988 9058
      3983 9057 3979 9060 3976 9061
TIME...MOT...LOC 1401Z 268DEG 36KT 3991 9111

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

BSH

892 
WWUS53 KLSX 171419
SVSLSX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
919 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

ILC001-171429-
/O.CAN.KLSX.SV.W.0183.000000T0000Z-260617T1500Z/
Adams IL-
919 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR SOUTHEASTERN ADAMS
COUNTY...

The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 300 PM CDT Wednesday for a
portion of west central Illinois.

&&

LAT...LON 4000 9091 4005 9068 4005 9067 4002 9063
      4003 9061 4002 9062 4001 9062 4000 9060
      3998 9061 3998 9051 3995 9053 3992 9054
      3988 9058 3985 9058 3983 9057 3979 9060
      3976 9061 3979 9092
TIME...MOT...LOC 1412Z 269DEG 36KT 3991 9097

$$


ILC009-149-171500-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0183.000000T0000Z-260617T1500Z/
Brown IL-Pike IL-
919 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CDT FOR
BROWN AND NORTHEASTERN PIKE COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

At 919 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Buckhorn, or 17
miles east of Quincy Regional Airport, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
  Fishhook, Mound Station, Buckhorn, Mount Sterling, Perry,
  Versailles, Chambersburg, Ripley, Coopertown and La Grange.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter inside a well-built structure and stay away from
windows. This storm is capable of producing damaging winds and large
hail.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 300 PM CDT Wednesday for a
portion of west central Illinois.

&&

LAT...LON 4000 9091 4005 9068 4005 9067 4002 9063
      4003 9061 4002 9062 4001 9062 4000 9060
      3998 9061 3998 9051 3995 9053 3992 9054
      3988 9058 3985 9058 3983 9057 3979 9060
      3976 9061 3979 9092
TIME...MOT...LOC 1412Z 269DEG 36KT 3991 9097

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

BSH

978 
WWUS53 KLSX 171425
SVSLSX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
925 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

ILC009-149-171500-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0183.000000T0000Z-260617T1500Z/
Brown IL-Pike IL-
925 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN BROWN AND NORTHEASTERN PIKE COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...

At 925 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles southeast of
Mount Sterling, or 20 miles north of Pittsfield, moving east at 55
mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
  Mount Sterling, Perry, Versailles, Chambersburg, Coopertown and La
  Grange.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter inside a well-built structure and stay away from
windows. This storm is capable of producing damaging winds and large
hail.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 300 PM CDT Wednesday for a
portion of west central Illinois.

&&

LAT...LON 3998 9077 4001 9062 4000 9060 3998 9061
      3998 9051 3993 9054 3992 9054 3988 9058
      3985 9058 3983 9057 3979 9060 3976 9061
      3978 9085
TIME...MOT...LOC 1419Z 271DEG 49KT 3989 9082

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

BSH

324 
WWUS53 KLSX 171431
SVSLSX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
931 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

ILC009-149-171441-
/O.CAN.KLSX.SV.W.0183.000000T0000Z-260617T1500Z/
Brown IL-Pike IL-
931 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR SOUTHEASTERN BROWN
AND NORTHEASTERN PIKE COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 300 PM CDT Wednesday for a
portion of west central Illinois.

&&

LAT...LON 3998 9077 4001 9062 4000 9060 3998 9061
      3998 9051 3993 9054 3992 9054 3988 9058
      3985 9058 3983 9057 3979 9060 3976 9061
      3978 9085
TIME...MOT...LOC 1425Z 271DEG 49KT 3989 9070

$$

BSH

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
625 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast from mid-afternoon
  through late evening, particularly north of I-70. Damaging winds
  will be the most common severe hazard, but large hail and a few
  tornadoes are also possible.

- Southwesterly winds will occasionally gust 40 to 50 mph across
  much of the area late this morning into evening outside of
  thunderstorms.

- Showers and a few thunderstorms will linger into Thursday with
  another opportunity for showers and thunderstorms late Saturday
  through early Monday, bookending dry conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Monday's cold front has stalled near the I-70 corridor, but will
begin to lift northeastward as a warm front through sunrise in
response to surface cyclogenesis across the Northern Plains with an
approaching upper-level shortwave trough. A strong, 50+ kt
southwesterly LLJ will veer toward the Upper and Mid-Mississippi
River Valley with increasing showers and thunderstorms expected
across IA near its nose through sunrise among strong WAA and
moisture transport. Most CAMs bring the southwestern edge of these
showers and thunderstorms southeastward into portions of
northeastern MO, west-central and south-central IL through the
morning, which could pose a marginal hail threat with the potential
for a couple of embedded supercells within a larger cluster of
thunderstorms.

Through midday or early afternoon, these showers and thunderstorms
should migrate to the east of the CWA, with quick moderation and
northeastward lifting of any remnant outflow or cold pool out of the
CWA given synoptic-scale maintenance of the strong southwesterly
LLJ. Increasing insolation, favorable southwesterly flow, and some
downslope warming off the Ozark Plateau will support high
temperatures in the upper 80s to low-90s F for most of the CWA.
Given BL mixing facilitating downward momentum transfer from the LLJ
to the surface, occasional wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph are forecast
from late morning through late afternoon, warranting expansion of
the Wind Advisory for all of the CWA aside from a portion of
southeastern MO.

With a capping inversion across the portion of the warm sector
across the CWA, initiation of thunderstorms is not expected until a
cold front enters northeastern MO and west-central IL sometime in
the 2 to 4 pm timeframe this afternoon. Anomalously strong flow at
lower and mid-levels will lead to 45 to 55 kt deep-layer wind shear
which, combined with 1500 to 3000 J/kg MLCAPE, will be favorable for
organized severe thunderstorms including supercells. With 45 to 60
deg orientation of deep-layer wind shear with the front, there is a
slight favoring of supercells remaining the dominant storm mode,
which is support by nearly all CAMs, leading to thunderstorms
capable of all severe hazards. With 1000+ J/kg of DCAPE, inverted V
signatures in forecast soundings, and 50+ kt winds not far above the
surface it will not be difficult for thunderstorms to produce
damaging winds, leading to that being the most common hazard. The
greatest tornado risk, including the potential for a strong tornado
(EF2+), will be across west-central and south-central IL (moreso in
central IL) where the largest low-level hodograph curvature exists
and LCLs will be lower. Further south along the cold front, high
LCLs from deeper BL mixing throughout the day will potentially be
less favorable for tornadogenesis along with some concern for
deconstructive storm interactions. There could be a brief window
that is more favorable just around/after sunset when LCLs lower and
the LLJ nocturnally strengthens, further elongating hodographs, but
frontal convergence and forcing altogether will be
decreasing/departing around that time.

The threat of severe weather will decrease late in the evening, but
there is a low threat of locally heavy rainfall with some training
of thunderstorms possible as the front slows south of I-70
overnight. However, fast storm motions will otherwise limit the
residence time/duration of any efficient rainfall (90th+ climo
percentile PW and deep warm cloud depths).

The cold front is progged to finally advance south of the CWA on
Thursday morning, but another wave of scattered showers and
thunderstorms are anticipated on the cool side of the front
along/south I-70 on Thursday as weak mid-level isentropic ascent
overruns the front and FGEN ebbs and flows. However, elevated
instability, and thus thunderstorms, will be mainly confined to
southeastern MO/southwestern IL. The post-frontal airmass and waves
of more abundant cloud cover will result in much cooler high
temperatures on Thursday, largely in the mid-70s to low-80s F.

Pfahler

&&

.LONG TERM...  (Thursday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

With gradual mid-level height rises and a weak surface high pressure
center in the Mid-Mississippi River Valley, seasonably cool
temperatures will persist through Friday along with dry conditions.
However, model guidance signals upper-level northwesterly flow
transitioning to quasi-zonal over the weekend, with at least one
more prominent shortwave trough passing between sometime late
Saturday and early Monday accompanied by another opportunity for
showers and thunderstorms. There are some indications for at least a
low threat of heavy rainfall Saturday night through Sunday night
with PW projected to be near the 95th climatological percentile and
a slow moving front in the region. The threat of strong/severe
thunderstorms will also need to be monitored on Sunday as well, but
potential morning showers and thunderstorms and the overall
variability and inconsistency precludes of model guidance precludes
the resolution of any details and leads to low confidence in either
threat at this point.

Early next week, there is a general consensus that upper-level flow
will become more northwesterly and greatest support in ensemble
membership for a wavering front to shift south of the CWA. These
ingredients support another period of seasonably cool and largely
dry conditions.

Pfahler

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Two rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected today with the
first associated with a cluster of thunderstorms headed southeast
out of IA this morning that could track into northeastern MO/west-
central IL. Confidence is increasing that these thunderstorms will
impact KUIN. The next round will develop with a passing cold front
this afternoon and progress eastward, potentially impacting all
terminals. Confidence is greatest in impacts at KUIN, KCOU, and
KJEF; and slightly lower at St. Louis metro terminals as coverage
may decrease some later in the evening. Thunderstorms will be
capable of MVFR to IFR flight conditions, gusty winds, and hail.
Outside of thunderstorms, VFR flight conditions will prevail.

The other concern this TAF period is strong southwesterly winds
outside of thunderstorms late this morning into early evening with
occasional gusts of 30 to 40 kt. Winds will veer to westerly/west-
northwesterly as the cold front passes, with winds also slackening
later this evening.

Pfahler

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Jefferson MO-Lincoln MO-
     Madison MO-Saint Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis
     City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Warren MO.

     Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM CDT this evening
     for Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Knox MO-Lewis
     MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-
     Pike MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO.

IL...Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for Bond IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-
     Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-
     Montgomery IL-Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-Washington IL.

     Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM CDT this evening
     for Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL.

&&

WFO LSX