Severe Thunderstorm Warning 176, NWS St. Louis, MO

014 
WWUS53 KLSX 112303
SVSLSX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
603 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

MOC137-112313-
/O.CAN.KLSX.SV.W.0176.000000T0000Z-260611T2330Z/
Monroe MO-
603 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR SOUTHWESTERN MONROE
COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI...

The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

&&

LAT...LON 3925 9231 3935 9231 3934 9221 3934 9198
      3906 9199 3906 9253 3925 9243
TIME...MOT...LOC 2224Z 253DEG 38KT 3941 9237 3927 9253 3913 9267

$$


MOC007-019-112330-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0176.000000T0000Z-260611T2330Z/
Audrain MO-Boone MO-
603 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM CDT FOR
WESTERN AUDRAIN AND NORTHERN BOONE COUNTIES...

At 603 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line from 8
miles north of Centralia to 5 miles northeast of Midway, or along a
line from 8 miles north of Centralia to 7 miles northwest of
Columbia, moving southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
  Harrisburg, Sturgeon, Centralia and Hallsville.

This includes the following State Parks...
Finger Lakes State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter inside a well-built structure and stay away from
windows. These storms are capable of producing damaging winds and
large hail.

&&

LAT...LON 3925 9231 3935 9231 3934 9221 3934 9198
      3906 9199 3906 9253 3925 9243
TIME...MOT...LOC 2224Z 303DEG 19KT 3943 9231 3930 9247 3915 9261

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Brown

671 
WWUS53 KLSX 112325
SVSLSX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
625 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

MOC007-019-112335-
/O.EXP.KLSX.SV.W.0176.000000T0000Z-260611T2330Z/
Audrain MO-Boone MO-
625 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 630 PM CDT FOR WESTERN
AUDRAIN AND NORTHERN BOONE COUNTIES...

The storms which prompted the warning have weakened below severe
limits, and have exited the warned area. Therefore, the warning will
be allowed to expire.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for a
portion of central Missouri.

&&

LAT...LON 3925 9231 3935 9231 3934 9221 3934 9198
      3906 9199 3906 9253 3925 9243
TIME...MOT...LOC 2303Z 303DEG 19KT 3931 9208 3918 9224 3904 9238

$$

Brown

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
243 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another round of strong to severe storms is expected in most of
  our area between late this afternoon and evening. Damaging
  straight line winds and tornadoes are the most likely hazards,
  with a more limited potential for large hail.

- Seasonable and dry conditions are expected tomorrow, but showers
  and thunderstorms will again be possible at various times
  between late tomorrow night and early Sunday. Some strong to
  severe storms are possible, but forecast confidence is low.

&&

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Friday Night)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

After an early round of thunderstorms moved through portions of
northeast Missouri and west-central Illinois this morning, the
forecast remains on track for a more widespread round of strong to
severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Damaging straight
line winds and tornadoes will be the most probable hazards
associated with these storms, with a more limited hail threat and
also the potential to worsen ongoing flooding mainly in northeast
Missouri.

While early morning storms have exited the area, allowing us to
cancel the previous Tornado Watch early, satellite and radar
observations indicate that the atmosphere is destabilizing quickly
behind it and ahead of an advancing cold front in northwest
Missouri. According to SPC mesoanalysis, as much as 3000-3500 J/kg
of largely uncapped MLCAPE is already in place, thanks to very rich
low level moisture featuring low to mid 70s dewpoints. As such, new
updrafts are already beginning to develop along the cold front in
northwest Missouri, and these storms are expected to continue to
expand and strengthen as the front overturns this extremely unstable
airmass.

Meanwhile, effective shear parameters across especially the
northern third of Missouri are more than sufficient to support
organized updrafts, ranging from 40 to 50 kt. Low level shear is
also relatively abundant (0-3km of 30-40kt, 0-1km of 20-30kt)
thanks again to a strong southwesterly low level jet. In spite of
the southwesterly surface winds, there is still at least some
clockwise curvature in the hodographs, although perhaps not as
enlarged as those further northwest. Finally, there appears to be
some semblance of an outflow boundary remnant from this morning's
round of storms, which may also add some additional low level
helicity if storms can manage to interact with it at the right
orientation.

All of this is to say that organized severe storms are very likely
this afternoon and evening, with all hazards on the table. Large
hail and tornadoes will be most likely with any supercells that
develop initially, although these storm modes are likely to occur
primarily to our west. Eventually, supercells are expected to grow
upscale into an expansive linear complex with embedded bowing
segments, possibly very quickly due to the strong forcing along the
front. Given the above parameters and a high probability of linear
storm modes, damaging straight line winds and QLCS tornadoes appear
the be the highest probability hazards. The latter threat appears
to be maximized across northern Missouri and west-central
Illinois where shear parameters are most favorable. Large hail in
the 1-2 inch range will also be possible, particularly with
isolated cells, but this potential will become more limited as
storms transition into a line. Finally, while these storms will be
progressive, we do expect brief heavy rain rates to occur given
the very rich moisture in place, and this may exacerbate ongoing
flooding issues in northeast Missouri and west-central Illinois.
Even an hour or two of heavy rain may be enough to cause flooding
in these areas, and considering that we had another round of rain
this morning, a Flash Flood Watch has also been issued through 7
PM to account for this.

Storms will steadily move southeast through the evening, and
eventually exit the area to the southeast sometime between 11 pm and
1 am. Severe storms will be possible at any time between roughly 4
PM and then, but will likely be maximized before roughly 10 pm when
instability is expected to be highest...which also places the
greatest threat area along and north of I-44.

BRC

&&

.LONG TERM...  (Saturday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Overnight tonight, a cold front will move through the area, which
will usher in a more seasonable and mild airmass for early summer.
Clearing skies and light winds may also allow for some river valley
fog overnight as well, particularly in central/northeast Missouri
where skies will clear faster, and also in areas that have more
lingering surface moisture. Expect near average temperatures
tomorrow, with mostly clear skies and more comfortable humidity
levels.

While we will have Friday to provide a bit of a lull in our active
pattern, additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected
Saturday and again Sunday as we enter a zonal flow pattern aloft.
Saturday in particular has a lot of moving pieces, including the
potential for early morning convection along the nose of a
strengthening low level jet, followed by possibly additional showers
and storms later in the day and again overnight/Sunday morning. Much
will depend on how each round evolves, and also on the passage of
subtle shortwaves through the day and overnight. While very little
confidence exists in the coverage or timing of strong or severe
storms, bulk parameters support the potential for this to occur at
some point during this window, and this threat will be evaluated
more closely in subsequent forecast packages. Beyond Sunday,
confidence is increasing that we will enter a relatively cool
pattern as a trough digs into the central U.S., although there may
be a few opportunities for showers periodically.

BRC

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

VFR conditions are in place early this afternoon, but widespread
MVFR cumulus clouds exist throughout the area and will remain so
until a round of showers and thunderstorms sweeps through late
this afternoon and evening. This round of storms will be brief,
but is expected to impact all local terminals at some point
between 21 and 02Z, first at COU/JEF/UIN, and later at
STL/SUS/CPS. Strong surface winds and brief heavy rain can be
expected with these storms, with a more limited potential for
hail. Brief visibility and ceiling reductions are both expected
as storms impact terminals.

Skies will clear behind these storms and a cold front will switch
breezy south-southwest winds to the northwest. Winds will weaken
overnight, and patchy fog is likely in some river valleys. This
has been included at the SUS and JEF TAFs as these sites are fog
prone in these conditions.

BRC

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for Knox MO-Lewis MO-
     Marion MO-Shelby MO.

IL...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for Adams IL-Brown IL.

&&

WFO LSX

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
1130 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1130 PM     Flash Flood      3 N Leonard             39.94N 92.18W
06/10/2026                   Shelby             MO   Dept of Highways

            As of 11AM 6/11 Shelby Co. Commission Office
            stated that the county road department
            continues to address road closures due to
            flooding. Flooding initially began impacting
            roads late last night and river rises are
            extending impacts. MO 151 is closed north of
            Leonard and around Hagers Grove. Initial
            time of impact is estimated by radar trends
            and flash products.

&&

Maples

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
1134 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1130 PM     Flash Flood      5 ENE Bethel            39.90N 91.92W
06/10/2026                   Shelby             MO   Dept of Highways

            MO J and MO W are closed due to flooding.
            Flooding initially began late last evening
            with several small rivers and tributaries
            extending flooding due to river rises. Time
            of initial impact estimated by radar trends
            and flash products.

&&

Maples

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
1232 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1130 PM     Flash Flood      3 WSW Ewing             40.00N 91.77W
06/10/2026                   Lewis              MO   Emergency Mngr

            State Emergency Management Agency and Lewis
            County reported continuing impacts to
            several roads throughout the county.
            Flooding initial began late Wednesday
            evening with ongoing flooding due to river
            rises. 156 remains closed west of Ewing.
            Time of flooding impacts estimated by radar
            trends and flash products.

&&

Maples

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
1245 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0831 AM     Flood            6 SE Philadelphia       39.79N 91.65W
06/11/2026                   Marion             MO   Emergency Mngr

            State Emergency Management Agency reported a
            motorist was stranded in their vehicle near
            County Road 281 and 234 between the North
            River and Big Branch River. The water was
            approximately knee deep. The individual was
            unharmed.

&&

Maples

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
1252 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0504 PM     Hail             1 SE Raymond            39.31N 89.56W
06/10/2026  M1.00 Inch       Montgomery         IL   Emergency Mngr

            Delayed Report - County EM submitted a
            report from yesterdays severe thunderstorm
            that impacted the northwest portion of the
            county just southeast of Raymond IL.

&&

Maples