Severe Thunderstorm Warning 152, NWS St. Louis, MO

512 
WWUS53 KLSX 311827
SVSLSX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
127 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

MOC221-311900-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0152.000000T0000Z-260531T1900Z/
Washington MO-
127 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM CDT FOR
CENTRAL WASHINGTON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...

At 127 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Potosi, moving
southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
  Latty and Shirley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter inside a well-built structure and stay away from
windows. This storm is capable of producing damaging winds and large
hail.

&&

LAT...LON 3790 9097 3802 9089 3798 9077 3783 9086
TIME...MOT...LOC 1808Z 297DEG 18KT 3796 9094

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Delia

212 
WWUS53 KLSX 311835
SVSLSX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
135 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

MOC221-311845-
/O.CAN.KLSX.SV.W.0152.000000T0000Z-260531T1900Z/
Washington MO-
135 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR CENTRAL WASHINGTON
COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...

The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and has exited the warned area. Therefore, the warning has
been cancelled.

&&

LAT...LON 3790 9097 3802 9089 3798 9077 3783 9086
TIME...MOT...LOC 1827Z 297DEG 18KT 3792 9083

$$

Delia

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1229 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There will be several chances of showers and thunderstorms through
  tomorrow with a low chance of severe thunderstorms capable of
  producing large hail and damaging winds.

- Dry weather is forecast Tuesday through Thursday along with near
  normal temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 418 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Patchy fog has developed over parts of the area like yesterday
morning with varying visibilities.  With light winds and yesterday's
rainfall, visibilities have fallen as low as 1/4 mile so far at SUS
and CPS, but have since climbed back up to 10 miles.  With the
clouds overhead and the relatively short night, I suspect any dense
fog will stay patchy the rest of the night.

There will the potential for several rounds of showers and
thunderstorms to move across parts of the CWA through Monday.  There
remains a strong CAPE gradient that is expected to remain in place
from west to east in addition to the persistent low level
convergence axis.  Showers and thunderstorms currently over western
Missouri are slowly moving east, and may move into central Missouri
early this morning.  An upper trough over the central Plains will
lift northeast this morning and supply decent ascent over the area
this afternoon.  The CAMS are showing an increase in convection over
the area by mid afternoon into this evening, though they are
inconsistent with their timing and location.  This is likely because
there will be an upper ridge building over Missouri and Illinois
today causing weak steering currents. The CAMS are also showing
some redevelopment of the thunderstorms over northern Missouri
this evening that will move into the CWA overnight. Both of these
rounds will have some potential of isolated severe thunderstorms
in the SPC marginal risk with up to 1" hail and 60 mph winds,
though the coverages an severity of storms will be dependent on
the previous rounds of storms. There will also be the potential
for heavy rainfall to produce localized flooding, particularly
over central and southeast Missouri where PWATS will be around
1.8" with warm cloud depths over 10k feet.

The CAMS are showing the second round of convection exiting the
CWA by 12Z on Monday. Both the RAP/GFS is showing a front
lingering back across central and southeast Missouri during the
day with sufficient CAP/shear to bring the risk of an isolated
strong to severe thunderstorm.

Britt

&&

.LONG TERM...  (Monday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 418 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Model guidance is consistent showing an upper high moving south
across Midwest Tuesday into Thursday resulting in dry weather across
the CWA during this period.  The chance for showers and
thunderstorms will return beginning on Thursday night and continues
into Saturday when moisture return will increase ahead of upper low
over the Plains.  The LREF is showing 40-60% of its members
producing rain over the CWA by Saturday.

WHile temperatures may cool down to around 80 on Tuesday and
Wednesday, highs are forecast to be mainly in 80s this week as they
climb back into the upper 80s by Friday and Saturday.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

An area of showers/weak thunderstorms to the west of the metro
terminals is expected to slide south and weaken with time/eastward
extent. Much of the afternoon/early evening may tend to be dry
across the area, but more widespread showers and thunderstorms are
expected overnight tonight into the early morning hours on Monday.
While confidence in details (timing, longevity, areas impacted) is
not very high, it does look like KCOU/KJEF have the best chance of
seeing the greatest impacts. This is where the storms may be a bit
stronger, so expect IFR visibilities in heavier cores and possibly
some small hail/gusty winds as well. The thunderstorms should move
out from west/northwest to east/southeast with time, leaving
dry conditions behind it for much of the area Monday morning.

Gosselin

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

WFO LSX