River Flood Warning 89, NWS St. Louis, MO

606 
WGUS83 KLSX 141625
FLSLSX

Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
1125 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in
Missouri...Illinois...

  Mississippi River at Hannibal.

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Missouri...Illinois...

  Mississippi River at Clarksville.

  Mississippi River at Louisiana.

  Mississippi River at Saverton.

  Mississippi River at Winfield.

River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast
precipitation for the next 24 hours.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information,
is available at https://water.noaa.gov/wfo/lsx

&&

ILC149-MOC127-160430-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0087.000000T0000Z-260619T0200Z/
/HNNM7.1.ER.260613T1950Z.260616T1200Z.260617T2000Z.NO/
1125 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Mississippi River at Hannibal.

* WHEN...Until Thursday evening.

* IMPACTS...At 18.0 feet, The northern end of Southside Recreation #2
  Park along Bear Creek begins flooding at this height. Gate wells
  are shut down to prevent the sewers from backing up.  Also at this
  level pumps are set to standby.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 10:15 AM CDT Sunday the stage was 17.0 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The river rose above flood stage on June 13,
    peaking at 17.1 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 17.6 feet
    Tuesday morning. It will then fall below flood stage Wednesday
    afternoon.
  - Flood stage is 17.0 feet.



&&


All Times CDT    Fld   Observed  Forecasts (7:00 am)
Location         Stg     Stage   Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri

Mississippi River
 Hannibal        17.0    17.0    17.3  17.6  17.4  16.0  14.3



&&

LAT...LON 3983 9148 3983 9135 3974 9121 3967 9132
      3969 9134 3968 9139 3971 9136


$$

ILC013-MOC163-160430-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0084.000000T0000Z-260620T0834Z/
/CLKM7.1.ER.260613T0630Z.260617T0600Z.260619T0234Z.NO/
1125 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Mississippi River at Clarksville.

* WHEN...Until late Friday night.

* IMPACTS...At 27.2 feet, Silo Park just northwest of Clarksville off
  Highway 79 begins flooding.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 11:00 AM CDT Sunday the stage was 25.8 feet and rising.
  - Recent Activity...The river rose above flood stage on June 13.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 27.1 feet
    early Wednesday morning. It will then fall below flood stage late
    Thursday evening.
  - Flood stage is 25.0 feet.



&&


All Times CDT    Fld   Observed  Forecasts (7:00 am)
Location         Stg     Stage   Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri

Mississippi River
 Clarksville     25.0    25.8    26.2  26.8  27.1  26.3  24.0



&&

LAT...LON 3939 9097 3946 9088 3940 9081 3932 9075
      3925 9071 3925 9083 3930 9090 3932 9088
      3936 9092 3935 9095


$$

ILC149-MOC163-160430-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0083.000000T0000Z-260620T0500Z/
/LUSM7.1.ER.260612T1715Z.260616T1800Z.260618T2300Z.NO/
1125 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Mississippi River at Louisiana.

* WHEN...Until late Friday night.

* IMPACTS...At 17.0 feet, The parking area at the boat house floods.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 11:00 AM CDT Sunday the stage was 16.2 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The river rose above flood stage on June 12.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 17.0 feet
    early Tuesday afternoon. It will then fall below flood stage
    Thursday evening.
  - Flood stage is 15.0 feet.



&&


All Times CDT    Fld   Observed  Forecasts (7:00 am)
Location         Stg     Stage   Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri

Mississippi River
 Louisiana       15.0    16.2    16.5  16.9  17.0  16.0  13.8



&&

LAT...LON 3946 9110 3953 9099 3946 9088 3939 9097
      3941 9100 3939 9103


$$

ILC149-MOC173-160430-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0089.260615T1200Z-260619T0730Z/
/SVRM7.1.ER.260615T1200Z.260616T1800Z.260618T0130Z.NO/
1125 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING TO LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Mississippi River at Saverton.

* WHEN...From Monday morning to late Thursday night.

* IMPACTS...At 15.5 feet, An access road to riverside raised homes on
  the riverward side of the Sny levee begins to flood near this
  level.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 6:00 AM CDT Sunday the stage was 15.6 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    tomorrow morning to a crest of 16.7 feet early Tuesday afternoon.
    It will then fall below flood stage Wednesday evening.
  - Flood stage is 16.0 feet.



&&


All Times CDT    Fld   Observed  Forecasts (7:00 am)
Location         Stg     Stage   Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri

Mississippi River
 Saverton        16.0    15.6    16.0  16.6  16.6  15.2  12.8



&&

LAT...LON 3967 9132 3974 9121 3970 9114 3953 9099
      3946 9110 3960 9122


$$

ILC013-MOC113-160430-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0090.260615T1800Z-260620T1424Z/
/CAGM7.1.ER.260615T1800Z.260618T0000Z.260619T0824Z.NO/
1125 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON TO SATURDAY
MORNING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Mississippi River at Winfield.

* WHEN...From Monday afternoon to Saturday morning.

* IMPACTS...At 27.5 feet, At this stage, Lock and Dam 25 will
  stockpile 200 tons of sand, 12,000 sandbags, and 10,000 square feet
  of polyethylene plastic as a precaution.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 11:00 AM CDT Sunday the stage was 25.4 feet and rising.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage early
    tomorrow afternoon to a crest of 27.0 feet Wednesday evening. It
    will then fall below flood stage early Friday morning.
  - Flood stage is 26.0 feet.



&&


All Times CDT    Fld   Observed  Forecasts (7:00 am)
Location         Stg     Stage   Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri

Mississippi River
 Winfield        26.0    25.4    25.8  26.3  26.9  26.9  25.7



&&

LAT...LON 3925 9083 3925 9071 3912 9065 3896 9065
      3888 9057 3880 9057 3885 9073 3910 9076


$$

Kimble

339 
WGUS83 KLSX 150114
FLSLSX

Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
814 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Illinois...Missouri...

  Mississippi River at Hannibal.

  Mississippi River at Clarksville.

  Mississippi River at Louisiana.

  Mississippi River at Chester.

  Mississippi River at Saverton.

  Mississippi River at Winfield.

River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast
precipitation for the next 24 hours.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information,
is available at https://water.noaa.gov/wfo/lsx

&&

ILC149-MOC127-161315-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0087.000000T0000Z-260619T0000Z/
/HNNM7.1.ER.260613T1950Z.260616T1800Z.260617T1800Z.NO/
814 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Mississippi River at Hannibal.

* WHEN...Until Thursday evening.

* IMPACTS...At 17.0 feet, John Hay Recreation Area on east side
  (inside the Illinois Sny Levee) begins flooding.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 7:15 PM CDT Sunday the stage was 17.0 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 17.4 feet
    early Tuesday afternoon. It will then fall below flood stage
    early Wednesday afternoon.
  - Flood stage is 17.0 feet.



&&


All Times CDT    Fld   Observed  Forecasts (7:00 am)
Location         Stg     Stage   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri   Sat

Mississippi River
 Hannibal        17.0    17.0    17.3  17.2  15.9  14.3  13.2



&&

LAT...LON 3983 9148 3983 9135 3974 9121 3967 9132
      3969 9134 3968 9139 3971 9136


$$

ILC013-MOC163-161315-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0084.000000T0000Z-260620T0800Z/
/CLKM7.1.ER.260613T0630Z.260617T0000Z.260619T0200Z.NO/
814 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Mississippi River at Clarksville.

* WHEN...Until late Friday night.

* IMPACTS...At 27.2 feet, Silo Park just northwest of Clarksville off
  Highway 79 begins flooding.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 8:00 PM CDT Sunday the stage was 25.9 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending
    at 8:00 PM CDT Sunday was 25.9 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 26.9 feet
    Tuesday evening. It will then fall below flood stage late
    Thursday evening.
  - Flood stage is 25.0 feet.



&&


All Times CDT    Fld   Observed  Forecasts (7:00 am)
Location         Stg     Stage   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri   Sat

Mississippi River
 Clarksville     25.0    25.9    26.8  26.9  26.2  23.9  21.8



&&

LAT...LON 3939 9097 3946 9088 3940 9081 3932 9075
      3925 9071 3925 9083 3930 9090 3932 9088
      3936 9092 3935 9095


$$

ILC149-MOC163-161315-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0083.000000T0000Z-260620T0448Z/
/LUSM7.1.ER.260612T1715Z.260616T1200Z.260618T2248Z.NO/
814 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Mississippi River at Louisiana.

* WHEN...Until Friday evening.

* IMPACTS...At 17.0 feet, The parking area at the boat house floods.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 8:00 PM CDT Sunday the stage was 16.3 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending
    at 8:00 PM CDT Sunday was 16.3 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 16.8 feet
    Tuesday morning. It will then fall below flood stage Thursday
    afternoon.
  - Flood stage is 15.0 feet.



&&


All Times CDT    Fld   Observed  Forecasts (7:00 am)
Location         Stg     Stage   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri   Sat

Mississippi River
 Louisiana       15.0    16.3    16.8  16.8  15.9  13.8  12.4



&&

LAT...LON 3946 9110 3953 9099 3946 9088 3939 9097
      3941 9100 3939 9103


$$

ILC077-157-MOC157-186-161315-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0088.260615T0800Z-260622T0036Z/
/CHSI2.1.ER.260615T0800Z.260618T1800Z.260620T1836Z.NO/
814 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT TO SUNDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Mississippi River at Chester.

* WHEN...From late tonight to Sunday evening.

* IMPACTS...At 28.0 feet, Unleveed islands near Chester and the
  prison farm floods.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 8:00 PM CDT Sunday the stage was 26.7 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage late
    tonight to a crest of 29.2 feet early Thursday afternoon. It will
    then fall below flood stage early Saturday afternoon.
  - Flood stage is 27.0 feet.



&&


All Times CDT    Fld   Observed  Forecasts (7:00 am)
Location         Stg     Stage   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri   Sat

Mississippi River
 Chester         27.0    26.7    28.1  28.7  29.1  29.2  27.9



&&

LAT...LON 3799 8992 3790 8977 3786 8973 3776 8945
      3769 8941 3769 8959 3786 8995 3795 9005


$$

ILC149-MOC173-161315-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0089.260615T1800Z-260619T0400Z/
/SVRM7.1.ER.260615T1800Z.260617T0000Z.260617T2200Z.NO/
814 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON TO THURSDAY
EVENING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Mississippi River at Saverton.

* WHEN...From Monday afternoon to Thursday evening.

* IMPACTS...At 15.5 feet, An access road to riverside raised homes on
  the riverward side of the Sny levee begins to flood near this
  level.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 6:00 AM CDT Sunday the stage was 15.6 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage early
    tomorrow afternoon to a crest of 16.4 feet Tuesday evening. It
    will then fall below flood stage Wednesday afternoon.
  - Flood stage is 16.0 feet.



&&


All Times CDT    Fld   Observed  Forecasts (7:00 am)
Location         Stg     Stage   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri   Sat

Mississippi River
 Saverton        16.0    15.6    16.2  16.3  15.0  12.7  11.0



&&

LAT...LON 3967 9132 3974 9121 3970 9114 3953 9099
      3946 9110 3960 9122


$$

ILC013-MOC113-161315-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0090.260616T0000Z-260620T1200Z/
/CAGM7.1.ER.260616T0000Z.260617T1800Z.260619T0600Z.NO/
814 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING TO SATURDAY
MORNING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Mississippi River at Winfield.

* WHEN...From Monday evening to Saturday morning.

* IMPACTS...At 27.5 feet, At this stage, Lock and Dam 25 will
  stockpile 200 tons of sand, 12,000 sandbags, and 10,000 square feet
  of polyethylene plastic as a precaution.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 8:00 PM CDT Sunday the stage was 25.5 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    tomorrow evening to a crest of 26.8 feet early Wednesday
    afternoon. It will then fall below flood stage early Friday
    morning.
  - Flood stage is 26.0 feet.



&&


All Times CDT    Fld   Observed  Forecasts (7:00 am)
Location         Stg     Stage   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri   Sat

Mississippi River
 Winfield        26.0    25.5    26.4  26.7  26.7  25.6  22.2



&&

LAT...LON 3925 9083 3925 9071 3912 9065 3896 9065
      3888 9057 3880 9057 3885 9073 3910 9076


$$

MRB

231 
WGUS83 KLSX 151757
FLSLSX

Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
1257 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in
Missouri...Illinois...

  Mississippi River at Hannibal.

  Mississippi River at Saverton.

River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast
precipitation for the next 24 hours.

ILC149-MOC127-151900-
/O.CAN.KLSX.FL.W.0087.000000T0000Z-260615T1757Z/
/HNNM7.1.ER.260613T1950Z.260614T1730Z.260614T2300Z.NO/
1257 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

...FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Mississippi River at Hannibal.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 12:15 PM CDT Monday the stage was 16.8 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to stay near a height of 16.8
    feet until late Tuesday evening before gradually falling to a
    height near 12.0 feet on Sunday.



&&


All Times CDT    Fld   Observed  Forecasts (7:00 am)
Location         Stg     Stage   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri   Sat

Mississippi River
 Hannibal        17.0    16.8    16.7  16.2  15.1  13.6  12.8



&&

LAT...LON 3983 9148 3983 9135 3974 9121 3967 9132
      3969 9134 3968 9139 3971 9136


$$

ILC149-MOC173-151900-
/O.CAN.KLSX.FL.W.0089.260615T1800Z-260615T1757Z/
/SVRM7.1.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1257 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

...FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Mississippi River at Saverton.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 6:00 AM CDT Monday the stage was 15.4 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to stay near a height of 15.3
    feet until Wednesday afternoon before gradually falling to a
    height near 10.0 feet on Sunday.



&&


All Times CDT    Fld   Observed  Forecasts (7:00 am)
Location         Stg     Stage   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri   Sat

Mississippi River
 Saverton        16.0    15.4    15.3  15.1  13.5  11.3  10.1



&&

LAT...LON 3967 9132 3974 9121 3970 9114 3953 9099
      3946 9110 3960 9122


$$

Peine

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
623 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible through the
  early overnight hours with damaging winds the main threat.

- Cool and dry conditions are forecast behind the cold front
  before chances of showers and thunderstorms return midweek.

&&

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 233 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Ongoing showers and thunderstorms have continued all day, thanks
in large part to a very persistent 25+ knot southwesterly low-
level jet. This activity along with the thicker debris clouds have
helped keep our entire area quite a bit cooler (and more stable)
than expected this time yesterday. More importantly, two separate
complexes of showers and thunderstorms have each sent out
composite outflow boundaries. One is currently just south of the
Missouri-Arkansas border and moving southeast with time. Another
outflow boundary is draped across northeast Kansas and northwest
Missouri. Initial convective initiation has just started along
this boundary as it has stalled over the past hour. As these
thunderstorms develop and push southeast, they may tend to weaken
by early this evening as they enter a less unstable air mass
across central (and northeast) Missouri. These locations have seen
at least some rain and plenty of cloud cover. Latest SPC
mesoanalysis shows 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE, but upstream
satellite/radar imagery shows either thicker clouds (in C MO) or
thunderstorms (NE MO). Therefore, it seems doubtful there will be
too substantial air mass recovery over the coming hours. CAMs
have struggled much of the day with scattered
showers/thunderstorms north of southeast Missouri. Therefore, it
seems quite unlikely that the 2500+ J/kg of MLCAPE by 0Z forecast
from the RAP/HRRR will actually come to fruition given their poor
initializations. Finally, the synoptic cold front is still located
well to the northwest across southeast Nebraska and southwest
Iowa. Both the HRRR and WoFs suggest some development along the
front near the Nebraska-Kansas border by ~22 UTC. This makes sense
conceptually given that this is where the strongest low-level
convergence resides. Those initial storms are likely to be
supercells with large hail the primary threat. Damaging winds will
become a bigger concern as storms head into eastern Kansas/far
western Missouri. This may sound like a theme, but similar to
earlier foci for (severe) thunderstorms, these too should stay to
our west, though I cannot completely rule out a strong/severe
storm clipping parts of central Missouri very late this evening.
Our main region of interest will be further northeast along the
front. I do think at least some scattered thunderstorms will
develop along the front upstream of northeast Missouri by early
this evening, but the coverage should be less due to weaker
surface convergence along the boundary. In addition, storms as
they head southeast may have a tendency to weaken as they enter
our region due to poor timing (late evening/early overnight) and
an overall more hostile environment due to the antecedent
showers/storms mitigating diurnal instability. Summing all of this
up, the confidence in severe weather in our area overall has
decreased quite a bit. A few of the storms in our area may be
strong to severe, but the chances of widespread severe weather
have decreased substantially. The main threats with any
thunderstorms through the early overnight hours would be damaging
winds and locally heavy rainfall. Regarding the rainfall threat,
areas that have been heavily impacted over the past several days
(i.e., parts of northeast Missouri and west-central Illinois)
would be the main areas of concern.

Gosselin

&&

.LONG TERM...  (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

(Sunday - Monday Night)

Behind tonight's synoptic cold front, much cooler and less humid air
will infiltrate the mid-Mississippi Valley. Temperatures are still
forecast to run about 10 degrees below normal day and night, with
highs in the mid to upper 70s and lows in the 50s.

(Tuesday - Next Saturday)

After a day ~60 hours across the region, we are still on track for a
return of chances for showers and thunderstorms starting as early as
Tuesday. This is when the first of two cold fronts is expected to
move across the bi-state area. With this first front, surface
convergence is fairly weak along the boundary with the stronger
mid/upper level forcing for ascent residing farther to the northeast
across the Great Lakes. In addition, moisture return ahead of this
front looks modest. Probabilities for 1500+ J/kg of SBCAPE from the
GEFS/GEPS only top out around 10-20% for parts of the area.

The following frontal passage will be of more concern. There remains
some timing/track differences with the midlevel shortwave trough
coming through the Upper Midwest and its corresponding surface low
track. The most likely scenario is for a warm front to be draped
just to our north, with widespread showers/thunderstorms near this
feature during the day on Wednesday. The trailing cold front is then
expected to move through our neck of the woods Wednesday night
through Thursday and provide our best chances (60-80%) of showers
and thunderstorms. Given the anomalous deep-layer shear, this should
yield another chance of organized convection via strong/severe
thunderstorms. However, as we have seen a few times now the past
several days, everything is nuanced and mesoscale features are key.
These cannot be predicted several days in advance. One main concern
this far out is the instability/moisture return. There is a large
degree of spread (~2000 J/kg) in the IQR of SBCAPE from the
GEFS/GEPS. Higher instability along with a quicker frontal timing
could yield a high threat for widespread severe weather while the
lower instability scenario and/or a later frontal timing may yield
more in the way of typical summertime thunderstorms.

The frontal speed is quite slow, not likely clearing the southern
CWA until sometime late Thursday. This means that high chances (40-
70%) of showers and thunderstorms continue through much of the day
Thursday, and only gradually shift out from northwest to southeast.
A slow moving front and a prolonged period of showers and
thunderstorms may also portend to a flash flood threat. The good
news is (at least at this time) that model precipitable water values
are expected to be not too high above normal (~1.4-1.7"; ~75th
percentile). A welcome 2-3 day break from any rain also will help
the soils at least dry out slightly and smaller tributaries to
recede.

Behind Wednesday night/Thursday's cold front, ensemble spread has
decreased slightly with respect to the incoming air mass later in
the week. Temperatures should return back to near, or even slightly
below, normal. Dry weather is also favored to end the work week.

Gosselin

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

VFR conditions are expected at the start of the period, but
terminals are likely to be impacted by showers and thunderstorms
late this evening and overnight for a brief period. This is most
likely at COU/JEF/UIN, with lower confidence at St. Louis area
terminals although there will likely be at least some rain.
Visibility reductions due to heavy rain and erratic, gusty winds
will be the main hazards. Low ceilings are also possible during
storms, and a few hours of MVFR to briefly IFR stratus may follow
these storms as a cold front passes through the area overnight.

Skies are expected to clear quickly in the morning, and breezy
northwest winds are expected to persist the remainder of the
period.

BRC

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

WFO LSX