River Flood Warning 71, NWS St. Louis, MO

192 
WGUS43 KLSX 081011
FLWLSX

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service St Louis MO
511 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

...The National Weather Service in St Louis has issued a Flood
Warning for the following rivers in Missouri...

  Missouri River at Jefferson City.

  Osage River near Mari-Osa Campground.

...Forecast flooding changed from Minor to Major severity and
increased in duration for the following rivers in Missouri...

  Hinkson Creek at Columbia.

River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast
precipitation for the next 24 hours.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

Rainfall heavier than forecast could cause river levels to rise even
higher than predicted. The National Weather Service will monitor this
developing situation and issue follow up statements as conditions
change.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information,
is available at https://water.noaa.gov/wfo/lsx

&&

MOC019-027-051-135-092215-
/O.NEW.KLSX.FL.W.0073.260608T1242Z-260610T1800Z/
/JFFM7.1.ER.260608T1242Z.260609T0000Z.260609T1200Z.NO/
511 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

...FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Missouri River at Jefferson City.

* WHEN...Until Wednesday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...At 24.5 feet, The Katy Trail Floods near Rocheport.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 4:45 AM CDT Monday the stage was 22.6 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage this
    morning to a crest of 24.7 feet this evening. It will then fall
    below flood stage tomorrow morning.
  - Flood stage is 23.0 feet.



&&


All Times CDT  Fld   Observed  Forecasts (7:00 am)
Location       Stg     Stage   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri   Sat

Missouri River
 Jefferson Cit 23.0    22.6    23.0  20.2  17.6  15.4  MSG



&&

LAT...LON 3864 9198 3855 9192 3853 9217 3867 9239
      3880 9245 3882 9236 3867 9219


$$

MOC051-151-092215-
/O.NEW.KLSX.FL.W.0074.260608T2024Z-260611T0800Z/
/MOAM7.1.ER.260608T2024Z.260609T0600Z.260610T0200Z.UU/
511 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

...FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON TO LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Osage River near Mari-Osa Campground.

* WHEN...From this afternoon to late Wednesday night.

* IMPACTS...At 22.0 feet, A storage shed across the river from the
  gage begins flooding near this height.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - There is no current observed data.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage late
    this afternoon to a crest of 21.4 feet just after midnight
    tonight. It will then fall below flood stage late tomorrow
    evening.
  - Flood stage is 19.0 feet.



&&


All Times CDT       Fld   Observed  Forecasts (7:00 am)
Location            Stg     Stage   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri   Sat

Osage River
 Mari-Osa Campgroun 19.0    MSG     21.4  17.7  15.7  13.1  MSG



&&

LAT...LON 3848 9197 3845 9206 3848 9208 3850 9204
      3855 9205 3855 9200


$$

MOC019-092145-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0071.000000T0000Z-260609T2135Z/
/TGRM7.3.ER.260608T0445Z.260608T0800Z.260608T1535Z.NO/
511 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Major flooding is occurring and major flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Hinkson Creek at Columbia.

* WHEN...Until Tuesday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...At 20.9 feet, Height of Providence Road just north of the
  gage bridge.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 4:00 AM CDT Monday the stage was 20.7 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending
    at 4:00 AM CDT Monday was 20.8 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage late
    this morning and continue falling to 4.7 feet early Thursday
    morning.
  - Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 20.7
    feet on 09/14/2008.



&&


All Times CDT Fld   Observed  Forecasts (7:00 am)
Location      Stg     Stage   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri   Sat

Hinkson Creek
 Columbia     15.0    20.7    5.5   5.0   MSG   MSG   MSG



&&

LAT...LON 3898 9229 3898 9225 3891 9232 3891 9241
      3893 9241 3895 9232


$$

MRB

263 
WGUS83 KLSX 081631
FLSLSX

Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
1131 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in
Missouri...

  Hinkson Creek at Columbia.

River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast
precipitation for the next 24 hours.

MOC019-081745-
/O.CAN.KLSX.FL.W.0071.000000T0000Z-260608T1631Z/
/TGRM7.3.ER.260608T0445Z.260608T0800Z.260608T1511Z.NO/
1131 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

...FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Hinkson Creek at Columbia.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 11:00 AM CDT Monday the stage was 13.9 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall to 4.5 feet late
    Thursday morning.



&&


All Times CDT Fld   Observed  Forecasts (7:00 am)
Location      Stg     Stage   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri   Sat

Hinkson Creek
 Columbia     15.0    13.9    5.3   5.0   4.5   MSG   MSG



&&

LAT...LON 3898 9229 3898 9225 3891 9232 3891 9241
      3893 9241 3895 9232


$$

Maples

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1205 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Waves of showers and thunderstorms are expected through at
  least Monday afternoon/evening with lower chances extending into
  Tuesday morning.

- Locally heavy rainfall is possible through Tuesday morning, but
  confidence relatively higher in flash flooding across central
  MO tonight into Monday morning. An isolated severe thunderstorm
  with damaging winds and/or brief, weak tornado is also possible
  this evening and again Monday afternoon and evening.

- Heat and humidity will build Tuesday into Thursday with high
  temperatures reaching the 90s F and afternoon heat index values
  exceeding 100 F in some locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Monday Night)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

An upper-level low will continue to slowly migrate northeastward
across the Mid-Mississippi River Valley through late Monday,
providing episodic showers and thunderstorms across the CWA as lobes
of associated mid-level vorticity and/or MCVs rotate cyclonically
around the parent low. Due to the broad/ill-defined large-scale
forcing and influence of previous rounds of showers and
thunderstorms, CAMs and model guidance as a whole have struggled to
come into agreement on the exact evolution of the upper-level low
and resulting timing and coverage of showers and thunderstorms. On
Monday afternoon/evening, HREF membership has the greatest coverage
shifting to along/east of the Mississippi River or beneath and
downstream of the upper-level low. Although mid-level heights will
be unfavorably rising Monday night, a lingering diffuse boundary has
been indicated by some model guidance to exist Monday night along
with potential interaction from a LLJ in addition to an upstream MCS
or MCV tracking along that boundary early Tuesday morning. This
evolution results in an increasingly uncertain forecast in terms of
showers and thunderstorms, especially Monday night through Tuesday
morning with a wide range of scenarios possible include those with
very little or only isolated showers and thunderstorms.

With precipitable water flirting with 2" (99th climatological
percentile) and deep warm cloud depths combined with kinematic
profiles favorable for some organization of thunderstorms into
clusters or small MCSs with training and backbuilding, locally heavy
rainfall continues to be a concern through Monday night. Confidence
in the threat of flash flooding has increased sufficiently to issue
a Flood Watch for portions of central MO where multiple rounds of
heavy rainfall are likely on top of 1 to 3" of rain that fell and
has moistened soils. Elsewhere, we are missing this preconditioning
of soils, lowering confidence in flash flooding at this point,
especially considering a lack of coherent or consistent high-QPF
signal in CAMs.

In addition to heavy rainfall there is also a low threat of severe
thunderstorms this afternoon/evening and again on Monday. The latest
SPC mesoanalysis depicts 1000 to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE including 100+
J/kg 0-3 km CAPE and 20 to 25 kt effective wind shear along with
just enough low-level hodograph curvature to support a low, brief
tornado or isolated damaging wind threat with a potential low-
topped, transient supercell. However, the more favorable environment
is across southwestern and southern MO. On Monday, the environment
is significantly more variable with wind shear magnitude and
hodograph structure sensitive to both the presence of a potential
remnant MCV from overnight thunderstorms in southwestern
MO/southeastern KS and arrival of a mid-level jet streak on the heel
of the upper-level low. HREF joint probabilities of 1000+ J/kg
SBCAPE and 25+ kt deep-layer wind shear are greatest (50 to 70
percent) late Monday afternoon along/west of the Mississippi River,
but the best overlap with stronger large-scale forcing appears to be
across southeastern MO. However, confidence is low in the placement.
At least isolated damaging winds are possible, with a low tornado
threat possible if wind shear sufficient for supercells is realized.

With regards to temperatures, early day cloud cover and showers and
thunderstorms at times are expected to keep high temperatures on
Monday in the 80s F. On Tuesday, there could be some morning cloud
debris or lingering showers or thunderstorms, but an upper-level
ridge axis shifting overhead will favor increasingly dry conditions
and scattering of any cloud cover. With low-level southerly flow
will also act to warm 850-hPa temperatures to near the 99th
climatological percentile, supporting high temperatures in the upper
80s to low-90s F. With dewpoints well into the 70s F, ensemble model
guidance has 30 percent probabilities of 100+ F heat index values
during the afternoon and evening.

Pfahler

&&

.LONG TERM...  (Tuesday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Global model guidance is trending toward a slightly quicker eastward
shift/break down of the ridge as upper-level troughing takes place
across the Northern Plains. This evolution has led to slightly
cooler temperatures on Wednesday, but confidence is still high that
it will be the warmest day of the week with much of the CWA seeing
high temperatures in the 90s F given an approaching 850-hPa thermal
ridge and potential downsloping of low-level southwesterly flow off
the Ozark Plateau. Despite being warmer on Wednesday, dewpoints may
tend to diurnally lower during peak heating, decreasing confidence
that heat index values will be much higher than Tuesday. Model
guidance is consensus that a shortwave trough rounding the broader
longwave trough will force a cold front into the CWA sometime
Thursday, providing another opportunity for showers and
thunderstorms along with cooling temperatures closer to average.
However, this front may waver across the Mid-Mississippi River
Valley into the upcoming weekend, prolonging chances of showers and
thunderstorms.

Pfahler

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Widespread showers and a thunderstorm or two continue across
central Missouri into west-central Illinois, and will lift
northward out of the area overnight. After a lull in precipitation
chances, showers and thunderstorms will kick back up tomorrow
morning. Showers and thunderstorms are possible (20-40% chance)
across much of the area Monday morning through the end of the TAF
period, however confidence in showers in any one location is low.
The exception is across the St. Louis metro terminals where
confidence is highest that showers and thunderstorms will move
through during the late morning.

MVFR ceilings are expected to build into the region overnight and
linger into Monday morning. Ceilings will lift to VFR during the
late morning/early afternoon Monday as day time mixing
strengthens. MVFR ceilings and brief periods of reduced
visibility are also expected underneath any showers and
thunderstorms.

Delia

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for Audrain MO-Boone MO-
     Callaway MO-Cole MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-
     Monroe MO-Osage MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO.

IL...Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for Adams IL.

&&

WFO LSX