Alert archive / Missouri / River Flood Warnings in 2026
River Flood Warning 63, NWS St. Louis, MO
NWS St. Louis, MO issued this river flood warning at May 19, 2026, 10:11 AM CDT for Franklin County, Missouri. It took effect at May 19, 2026, 7:55 PM CDT. It was in force for 48 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 19, 2026, 10:11 AM CDT (15:11 UTC)
- In effect from
- May 19, 2026, 7:55 PM CDT
- Expired
- May 21, 2026, 7:54 PM CDT
- In force
- 48 hr
- Issued by
- NWS St. Louis, MO
- Area
- Storm-based polygon
- Flood severity
- Minor
County Franklin County, MO
The radar
The St Louis radar (KLSX), 44 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 15:13 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The river
Written for the forecast point Bourbeuse River at Union (UNNM7). The gauge peaked at 17.61 ft at May 21, 2026, 7:00 AM CDT.
- Action stage
- 13 ft
- Minor stage
- 15 ft
- Moderate stage
- 22 ft
- Major stage
- 26 ft
This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests
Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 07016500, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.
The text
As transmitted.
804
WGUS43 KLSX 191511
FLWLSX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service St Louis MO
1011 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026
...The National Weather Service in St Louis has issued a Flood
Warning for the following rivers in Missouri...
Bourbeuse River at Union.
River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast
precipitation for the next 24 hours.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
Rainfall heavier than forecast could cause river levels to rise even
higher than predicted. The National Weather Service will monitor this
developing situation and issue follow up statements as conditions
change.
This product, along with additional weather and stream information,
is available at https://water.noaa.gov/wfo/lsx
&&
MOC071-210315-
/O.NEW.KLSX.FL.W.0063.260520T0055Z-260523T0342Z/
/UNNM7.1.UU.260520T0055Z.260521T0000Z.260521T2142Z.NO/
1011 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026
...FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING TO FRIDAY EVENING...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Bourbeuse River at Union.
* WHEN...From this evening to Friday evening.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 9:30 AM CDT Tuesday the stage was 13.0 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage this
evening to a crest of 18.3 feet tomorrow evening. It will then
fall below flood stage Thursday afternoon.
- Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
&&
LAT...LON 3832 9113 3836 9113 3840 9107 3843 9106
3848 9096 3843 9085 3841 9089 3839 9089
3839 9092 3843 9093 3837 9101
$$
Fuchs6 follow-up statements
676
WGUS83 KLSX 191817
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
117 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Missouri...
Bourbeuse River at Union.
River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast
precipitation for the next 24 hours.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
Rainfall heavier than forecast could cause river levels to rise even
higher than predicted. The National Weather Service will monitor this
developing situation and issue follow up statements as conditions
change.
This product, along with additional weather and stream information,
is available at https://water.noaa.gov/wfo/lsx
&&
MOC071-210630-
/O.CON.KLSX.FL.W.0063.260520T0055Z-260523T0342Z/
/UNNM7.1.UU.260520T0055Z.260521T0000Z.260521T2142Z.NO/
117 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026
...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING TO FRIDAY
EVENING...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Bourbeuse River at Union.
* WHEN...From this evening to Friday evening.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 1:00 PM CDT Tuesday the stage was 13.6 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage this
evening to a crest of 18.3 feet tomorrow evening. It will then
fall below flood stage Thursday afternoon.
- Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
&&
LAT...LON 3832 9113 3836 9113 3840 9107 3843 9106
3848 9096 3843 9085 3841 9089 3839 9089
3839 9092 3843 9093 3837 9101
$$
Fuchs148
WGUS83 KLSX 200153
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
853 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Missouri...
Bourbeuse River at Union.
River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast
precipitation for the next 24 hours.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
Rainfall heavier than forecast could cause river levels to rise even
higher than predicted. The National Weather Service will monitor this
developing situation and issue follow up statements as conditions
change.
This product, along with additional weather and stream information,
is available at https://water.noaa.gov/wfo/lsx
&&
MOC071-211400-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0063.000000T0000Z-260523T0130Z/
/UNNM7.1.UU.260520T0418Z.260520T1800Z.260521T1930Z.NO/
853 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026
...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Bourbeuse River at Union.
* WHEN...Until Friday evening.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 8:30 PM CDT Tuesday the stage was 14.3 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage late
this evening to a crest of 17.6 feet early tomorrow afternoon. It
will then fall below flood stage early Thursday afternoon.
- Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
&&
LAT...LON 3832 9113 3836 9113 3840 9107 3843 9106
3848 9096 3843 9085 3841 9089 3839 9089
3839 9092 3843 9093 3837 9101
$$
Maples040
WGUS83 KLSX 201546
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
1046 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Missouri...
Bourbeuse River at Union.
River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast
precipitation for the next 24 hours.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
Rainfall heavier than forecast could cause river levels to rise even
higher than predicted. The National Weather Service will monitor this
developing situation and issue follow up statements as conditions
change.
This product, along with additional weather and stream information,
is available at https://water.noaa.gov/wfo/lsx
&&
MOC071-220400-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0063.000000T0000Z-260522T1950Z/
/UNNM7.1.UU.260520T0837Z.260520T1800Z.260521T1350Z.NO/
1046 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026
...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Bourbeuse River at Union.
* WHEN...Until Friday afternoon.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 10:30 AM CDT Wednesday the stage was 15.8 feet.
- Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending
at 10:30 AM CDT Wednesday was 15.8 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 16.1 feet
this afternoon. It will then fall below flood stage tomorrow
morning.
- Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
&&
LAT...LON 3832 9113 3836 9113 3840 9107 3843 9106
3848 9096 3843 9085 3841 9089 3839 9089
3839 9092 3843 9093 3837 9101
$$
Fuchs982
WGUS83 KLSX 210032
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
732 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026
...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in
Missouri...
Bourbeuse River at Union.
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Missouri...
Moreau River near Jefferson City.
River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast
precipitation for the next 24 hours.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
This product, along with additional weather and stream information,
is available at https://water.noaa.gov/wfo/lsx
&&
MOC071-221245-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0063.000000T0000Z-260522T2322Z/
/UNNM7.1.UU.260520T0837Z.260521T0600Z.260521T1722Z.NO/
732 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026
...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Bourbeuse River at Union.
* WHEN...Until Friday evening.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 7:00 PM CDT Wednesday the stage was 16.7 feet.
- Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending
at 7:00 PM CDT Wednesday was 16.7 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 17.1 feet
just after midnight tonight. It will then fall below flood stage
early tomorrow afternoon.
- Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
&&
LAT...LON 3832 9113 3836 9113 3840 9107 3843 9106
3848 9096 3843 9085 3841 9089 3839 9089
3839 9092 3843 9093 3837 9101
$$
MOC051-221000-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0062.000000T0000Z-260522T0948Z/
/JCMM7.1.ER.260519T1106Z.260520T1430Z.260521T0348Z.NO/
732 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026
...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring.
* WHERE...Moreau River near Jefferson City.
* WHEN...Until late Thursday night.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 6:30 PM CDT Wednesday the stage was 19.2 feet.
- Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending
at 6:30 PM CDT Wednesday was 22.9 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage late
this evening and continue falling to 2.0 feet Monday evening.
- Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
&&
All Times CDT Fld Observed Forecasts (7:00 am)
Location Stg Stage Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue
Moreau River
Jefferson Cit 17.0 19.2 3.1 2.2 2.1 2.1 MSG
&&
LAT...LON 3855 9214 3854 9207 3850 9210 3847 9224
3850 9235 3856 9236 3857 9233 3854 9226
$$
Jaja078
WGUS83 KLSX 211701
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
1201 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026
...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in
Missouri...Illinois...
Missouri River at Hermann.
Missouri River near Chamois.
Bourbeuse River at Union.
Kaskaskia River at Carlyle.
River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast
precipitation for the next 24 hours.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive cars
through flooded areas.
This product, along with additional weather and stream information,
is available at https://water.noaa.gov/wfo/lsx
&&
MOC073-139-230515-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0065.000000T0000Z-260525T1330Z/
/HRNM7.1.ER.260521T1225Z.260522T1200Z.260524T0730Z.NO/
1201 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026
...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MONDAY MORNING...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Missouri River at Hermann.
* WHEN...Until Monday morning.
* IMPACTS...At 22.3 feet, Southern portions of Old Rock Road and
Twisters Road south of Rhineland begin flooding near this height.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 11:30 AM CDT Thursday the stage was 21.4 feet.
- Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending
at 11:30 AM CDT Thursday was 21.4 feet.
- Forecast...The river will fall to 21.3 feet this afternoon. It
will then rise to 21.9 feet tomorrow morning. It will fall to
21.6 feet tomorrow evening. It will then rise to 21.8 feet
Saturday morning. It will fall below flood stage early Sunday
morning.
- Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
&&
All Times CDT Fld Observed Forecasts (7:00 am)
Location Stg Stage Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue
Missouri River
Hermann 21.0 21.4 21.9 21.8 20.7 19.1 16.9
&&
LAT...LON 3873 9160 3875 9136 3866 9119 3859 9119
3867 9144 3865 9160
$$
MOC027-151-230515-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0064.000000T0000Z-260526T0600Z/
/CMSM7.1.ER.260520T1732Z.260522T0600Z.260524T1800Z.NO/
1201 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026
...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Missouri River near Chamois.
* WHEN...Until late Monday night.
* IMPACTS...At 17.0 feet, Flood Stage: Lower lying bottom land
begins to flood.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- There is no current observed data.
- Forecast...The river will rise to 18.9 feet tomorrow morning. It
will then fall tomorrow evening. It will rise to 18.8 feet
Saturday morning. It will then fall below flood stage early
Sunday afternoon.
- Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
&&
All Times CDT Fld Observed Forecasts (7:00 am)
Location Stg Stage Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue
Missouri River
Chamois 17.0 MSG 18.9 18.8 17.4 16.0 13.5
&&
LAT...LON 3864 9198 3871 9185 3873 9160 3865 9160
3864 9181 3858 9194
$$
MOC071-230515-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0063.000000T0000Z-260523T0732Z/
/UNNM7.1.UU.260520T0837Z.260521T1415Z.260522T0132Z.NO/
1201 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026
...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Bourbeuse River at Union.
* WHEN...Until late Friday night.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 11:30 AM CDT Thursday the stage was 17.5 feet.
- Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending
at 11:30 AM CDT Thursday was 17.7 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage this
evening and continue falling to 3.7 feet Thursday, May 28.
- Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
&&
LAT...LON 3832 9113 3836 9113 3840 9107 3843 9106
3848 9096 3843 9085 3841 9089 3839 9089
3839 9092 3843 9093 3837 9101
$$
ILC027-230515-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0060.000000T0000Z-260523T0800Z/
/KCAI2.1.ER.260507T1459Z.260512T1800Z.260522T0200Z.NO/
1201 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026
...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Kaskaskia River at Carlyle.
* WHEN...Until late Friday night.
* IMPACTS...At 16.5 feet, Near this height, downstream agricultural
fields begin flooding.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 11:30 AM CDT Thursday the stage was 17.0 feet.
- Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending
at 11:30 AM CDT Thursday was 17.2 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 17.1 feet
this afternoon. It will then fall below flood stage late this
evening.
- Flood stage is 16.5 feet.
&&
All Times CDT Fld Observed Forecasts (7:00 am)
Location Stg Stage Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue
Kaskaskia River
Carlyle 16.5 17.0 16.2 16.2 16.2 16.2 16.2
&&
LAT...LON 3862 8936 3861 8933 3851 8937 3849 8942
3854 8942
$$
Delia293
WGUS83 KLSX 220054
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
754 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026
...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in
Missouri...
Bourbeuse River at Union.
River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast
precipitation for the next 24 hours.
MOC071-220200-
/O.CAN.KLSX.FL.W.0063.000000T0000Z-260522T0054Z/
/UNNM7.1.UU.260520T0837Z.260521T1415Z.260521T2212Z.NO/
754 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026
...FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED...
The Flood Warning is cancelled for
the Bourbeuse River at Union.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 7:30 PM CDT Thursday the stage was 12.1 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to fall to 3.7 feet Thursday,
May 28.
&&
All Times CDT Fld Observed Forecasts (7:00 am)
Location Stg Stage Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed
Bourbeuse River
Union 15.0 12.1 8.3 4.8 4.1 4.1 3.9 3.8
&&
LAT...LON 3832 9113 3836 9113 3840 9107 3843 9106
3848 9096 3843 9085 3841 9089 3839 9089
3839 9092 3843 9093 3837 9101
$$
CarneyWhat forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS St. Louis, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at May 19, 8:48 AM CDT, 1 hour 23 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
- Showers and thunderstorms continue today with a more limited chance of severe thunderstorms or flooding compared to prior days.
- Cooler and less humid weather arrives behind today's cold front. The next round of more widespread showers and thunderstorms is Thursday night into Friday.
Area forecast discussion, May 19, 8:48 AM CDT, 1 hour 23 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
848 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026
.UPDATE...
Issued at 842 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026
Convective complex continues to nudge southward into Arkansas this
morning with stratiform rain spreading through central Missouri
and occasionally as far east as the Mississippi River. We have
given some consideration to canceling the Flood Watch early as
rainfall rates in the stratiform rain region have been quite
minor. However, some convective redevelopment along the front
noted in southwest Missouri behind the stratiform rain indicates
we can still get some higher rainfall rates if this convection
spreads northeast. So we will maintain the Flood Watch until
expiration at 1PM, but the overall threat is much more limited at
this point than it was yesterday. Latest update to the Day1
Convective Outlook from SPC also has shifted the severe threat
southeast with the idea that the clouds and stratiform rain will
limit instability ahead of the front today until the front arrives
near our southeastern CWA border late this afternoon. This is
consistent with our thinking as well as the severe weather threat
is greatly reduced, with the remaining threat tied to
redevelopment of instability ahead of the front which may take
quite some time considering the clouds and rain this morning.
Kimble
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers and thunderstorms continue today with a more limited
chance of severe thunderstorms or flooding compared to prior
days.
- Cooler and less humid weather arrives behind today's cold front.
The next round of more widespread showers and thunderstorms is
Thursday night into Friday.
&&
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 414 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026
Latest analysis of radar imagery reveals a complex of thunderstorms
working its way eastward across the area. Currently (as of 0730z),
the leading edge of this activity is pushing into west-central IL,
east-central MO, and points southwestward toward Springfield MO.
Over the last few hours, this complex has gradually been weakening
with eastward extent, with scattered clusters of convection along
the leading edge, followed by widespread stratiform rain. Nearly all
of this convection is now outflow dominant with a gust front out
ahead of the leading edge producing scattered gusts up to 40mph,
which has generally been tied closely to the stronger convective
clusters. Steepened mid-level lapse rates (8-8.5 degrees C) and a
strong 50kt LLJ are both working to keep convection semi-organized
along portions of the leading edge. As a result, this complex of
thunderstorms will continue to be capable of 30-40mph winds, with
gusts near 50mph possible ahead of stronger convective development
that percolate throughout the morning. The favorable environment
highlighted above for these potential stronger convective segments
is generally along and south of the I-70 corridor.
As these showers and thunderstorms continue to filter into the area
this morning, the threat for flooding will also continue. A majority
if the area received 1-2" of rain yesterday with some locations
getting 3-5", generally along I-70 and about 50 miles to the south.
Locations that experienced these higher end amounts yesterday will
be more susceptible to flooding today. In fact, an additional 1-2"
within a 3hr period today may be enough to lead to flash flooding
for some locations. High resolution guidance varies significantly on
the evolution of showers and thunderstorms today, with the general
consensus that showers and pockets of thunderstorms gradually wane
into the late morning or early afternoon. Given all of the variables
mentioned above, the risk of heavy rainfall has prompted us to
continue the Flash Flood Watch, which is now in effect until this
afternoon. Residents should continue to monitor the latest forecast
and be prepared to seek higher ground if a Flash Flood Warning is
issued for your area.
Latest surface analysis reveals a surface low lifting northeast into
WI, with a cold front stretching southwestward into northwest MO.
This front is modeled by guidance to gradually slide southeast
throughout the morning, approaching northeast MO by late this
morning. Ample low-level CAA and thick stratus behind the front will
mitigate the severe weather threat in the post-frontal airmass.
Uncertainty remains with how quickly the atmosphere will be able to
recover this afternoon/evening. Lingering showers and ample clouds
will lower the severe risk or push the risk further south, while
less showers/clouds would increase the risk and lead to a more
widespread severe storm threat this afternoon/evening. Regardless,
instability and mid-level flow are still forecast to be sufficient
enough to support organized storms with potential for large hail,
and damaging wind gusts. Any lingering outflow boundaries from
convection this morning may serve as areas of focus for thunderstorm
development this afternoon ahead of the cold front.
Peine
&&
.LONG TERM... (Wednesday Morning through Monday)
Issued at 414 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026
Low-level cold air advection along with potential lingering cloud
cover, within the post-frontal airmass, will lead to much cooler
conditions for Wednesday, with highs forecast to be around 10-15
degrees below average. Quasi-zonal flow aloft encompasses the region
through the end of the week, which should allow for a period of dry
conditions until Friday.
By the end of the week, long-range guidance shows a southern stream
shortwave lifting northeast and merging into the downstream end of a
northern stream longwave trough near the Great Plains. Low-level
flow ahead of these features appears to remain easterly, which would
limit moisture return along with rain chances. Regardless, the
evolution of these features leads to the return of rain chances
Thursday night into Friday, with the LREF 6hr probabilities for
accumulated precipitation reaching a widespread 80% on Friday for
the area. Chances for precipitation look to remain limited this
weekend as probabilities stay below 20% for a majority of the area. A
gradual warmup is also forecast as LREF temperature IQRs increase to
temperatures right around climatological normals by next week.
Peine
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 654 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026
A broad region of showers with occasional lightning mostly across
MO continues to slide southeastward with the heaviest precipitation
across central/south-central MO. For KCOU/KJEF, showers with
isolated embedded thunderstorms are possible through 16z, while KUIN
and the St. Louis metro terminals should experience on and off
showers through 15-16z. Most of the showers will not impact
visibilities, with the exception of heavier showers/thunderstorms
that may lead to brief MVFR visibilities. There is a low chance
(30%) for isolated thunderstorms this afternoon/evening near and
south of the St. Louis metro, which has led to the inclusion of a
PROB30 group.
Highly variable ceilings accompany the area of showers with
scattered pockets of very low ceilings, around 500ft, underneath the
more broad and consistent 6-10kft cloud deck. A majority of these
scattered ceilings near 500ft have been across central/northeast MO
with more widespread ceilings of this nature to the north and west
near a cold front that is across western MO/southern IA. As this
cold front approaches today, ceilings are forecast to lower at all
terminals with widespread low MVFR/IFR ceilings expected across the
area. Ceilings at below airport minimums are possible, with the best
chance for this at KCOU/KJEF, followed by KUIN, with a low chance
for impacts to this magnitude at the St. Louis metro terminals.
Guidance has continued to indicate that conditions are slow to
improve, with possible impacts from low ceilings lasting into the
day on Wednesday.
Southerly surface winds around 10kts veer to the north behind a cold
front that passes from north to south today with northerly winds
prevailing into tomorrow.
Peine
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for Audrain MO-Boone
MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-
Jefferson MO-Lincoln MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-
Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Saint Charles MO-Saint Louis City
MO-Saint Louis MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.
IL...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for Bond IL-Calhoun IL-
Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Jersey IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe
IL-Saint Clair IL-Washington IL.
&&
WFO LSXHazardous weather outlook, May 19, 5:55 AM CDT, 4 hours 16 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service St Louis MO 555 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027- 034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-201100- Greene IL-Macoupin IL-Montgomery IL-Bond IL-Fayette IL-Clinton IL- Marion IL-Washington IL-Randolph IL-Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL- Calhoun IL-Jersey IL-Madison IL-Saint Clair IL-Monroe IL-Knox MO- Lewis MO-Shelby MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-Pike MO-Boone MO- Audrain MO-Moniteau MO-Cole MO-Osage MO-Callaway MO-Montgomery MO- Lincoln MO-Gasconade MO-Warren MO-Saint Charles MO-Franklin MO- Saint Louis MO-Saint Louis City MO-Jefferson MO-Crawford MO- Washington MO-Saint Francois MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Iron MO- Madison MO-Reynolds MO- 555 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern and central Missouri as well as west central and southwest Illinois. .DAYS ONE THROUGH SEVEN...Today through Monday. More detailed information can be accessed at: https://www.weather.gov/media/lsx/DssPacket.pdf The Area Forecast Discussion is available at: https://forecast.weather.gov/ product.php?issuedby=LSX&product=AFD&site=lsx .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue this morning with additional rainfall in some locations potentially leading to flash flooding. - A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into early tonight ahead of a cold front. The main hazards are large hail and damaging wind gusts. NOTE: Starting May 29, 2026, this outlook product will be discontinued. Please see the above products for more detailed forecast information. WFO LSX
In the hours before
Local storm report, May 19, 9:55 AM CDT, 16 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
955 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0700 PM Rain Washington 38.56N 91.01W
05/18/2026 M4.00 Inch Franklin MO Trained Spotter
Total from 7 am to 7 pm on 5/18.
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PfahlerThe office that day
Everything else NWS St. Louis, MO issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 18, 8:16 PM CDT | River Flood Warning | LSX | Lincoln | 25 hr |
| May 19, 1:53 AM CDT | River Flood Warning | LSX | Cole | 44 hr |
| May 19, 12:13 PM CDT | River Flood Warning | LSX | Callaway, Osage | 4 days |
Nearby
River Flood Warnings in Missouri, 2026Every river flood warning in 2026
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.