Flash Flood Warning 45, NWS St. Louis, MO

600 
WGUS73 KLSX 100735
FFSLSX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
235 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

MOC093-179-100845-
/O.CON.KLSX.FF.W.0045.000000T0000Z-260710T0845Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Iron MO-Reynolds MO-
235 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 AM CDT EARLY THIS
MORNING FOR CENTRAL IRON AND REYNOLDS COUNTIES...

At 235 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy
rain across the warned area. Between 4 and 7 inches of rain have
fallen. The expected rainfall rate is 1 to 2 inches in 1 hour.
Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible in the
warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing
         flash flooding.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams, urban
         areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Reynolds, Ellington, Oates, Centerville, Corridon, Black, Redford
  and Lesterville.

This includes the following State Parks...
Johnsons Shut-Ins State Park and Taum Sauk Mountain State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3759 9116 3760 9077 3737 9077 3737 9075
      3727 9075 3727 9074 3717 9074 3724 9101
      3741 9118 3742 9120 3742 9121 3750 9121
      3751 9131 3759 9131

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
EXPECTED RAINFALL RATE...1-2 INCHES IN 1 HOUR

$$

BRC

003 
WGUS53 KLSX 100758 RRA
FFWLSX
MOC093-179-101045-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FF.W.0045.000000T0000Z-260710T1045Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service St Louis MO
258 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

The National Weather Service in St Louis has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Central Iron County in southeastern Missouri...
  Reynolds County in southeastern Missouri...

* Until 545 AM CDT.

* At 258 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing
  heavy rain across the warned area. Between 5 and 8 inches of rain
  have fallen. The expected rainfall rate is 1 to 2 inches in 1 hour.
  Additional rainfall amounts of up to 1 inch are possible in the
  warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin
  shortly.

  HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing
           flash flooding.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams,
           urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Reynolds, Oates, Centerville, Corridon, Black, Redford and
  Lesterville.

This includes the following State Parks...
Johnsons Shut-Ins State Park and Taum Sauk Mountain State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3759 9116 3760 9077 3737 9077 3737 9075
      3727 9075 3727 9074 3717 9074 3724 9101
      3741 9118 3742 9120 3742 9121 3750 9121
      3751 9131 3759 9131

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
EXPECTED RAINFALL RATE...1-2 INCHES IN 1 HOUR

$$

BRC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service St Louis MO
1050 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A flash flood watch is in effect through Friday night in
  southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois, with multiple
  rounds of showers and thunderstorms expected.

- Some storms this evening and again Friday afternoon/evening
  may be strong to severe with damaging winds the primary
  threat each day.

- Dry weather along with above normal temperatures are forecast
  Sunday through the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 237 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

GOES-19 visible satellite imagery shows 3, maybe 4 MCVs across
the region all moving eastward. One is near K3LF and the other
near KUIN. Both of these features has recently led to convective
initiation just east/southeast of each of these in west central
and south-central Illinois. One or two of these storms may be
on the stronger side with damaging winds the primary threat.
More convective development is expected by early this evening as
the low-level jet strengthens. Moisture convergence associated
with the low-level jet will also increase, and this combined
with an uptick in midlevel ascent downstream of the upstream
MCVs (one near OK-KS border and another possible MCV near KSTJ)
should lead to more widespread showers and thunderstorms. This
activity is expected to focus mainly across southeast Missouri.
Concern for flash flooding is increasing, as training is
expected through the early overnight hours in an environment
that is supportive of high rainfall rates (deep warm cloud
depths, anomalous precipitable water values). New cells should
develop on the west/northwest flank of the activity through the
early overnight hours as the low-level jet veers from the
southwest to the west. Past events with these setups tend to
have a narrow west/northwest to east/southeast axis of very
heavy rainfall on the west/southwest edge of the precipitation
shield. That may indeed occur again tonight, and if so, may
heavily impact a portion of a few counties in southeast
Missouri. The LPMM of the HREF has a narrow axis of 3-4" whereas
the REFS has almost double those totals. If training occurs
long enough, I would not rule out the higher-end potential of
the REFS LPMM. Due to this threat for significant rainfall
amounts and flash flood potential, a flash flood watch is now in
effect beginning this afternoon through Friday night across
southeast Missouri and a small part of southwest Illinois.

The heavy rain threat overnight tonight should end around dawn with
the stronger low-level moisture convergence shifting to the
east/southeast more toward the lower Ohio Valley. Mostly dry
conditions are then forecast through the remainder of the morning
hours across the area. Attention will then look to the west again.
Another MCV(s?) is likely to be moving across eastern Kansas by
midday. The exact track/timing of this feature is not certain,
nor is the environment ahead of it due to the morning showers
and thunderstorms. The effective front may be to our south,
though at least some sunshine should allow for instability to
climb ahead of the approaching MCV. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are forecast across the area, though there may be
a bit more focus from central-southeast Missouri during the late
afternoon/evening time frame. Similar to today, damaging winds
should be the primary threat. Locally heavy rainfall will also
be possible as there will be little/no change in the environment
so efficient warm rain processes are expected. Areas that get
hit hardest tonight would be the main concern as soils may be
very saturated and any additional (even brief) heavy rainfall
could cause renewed hydrological issues.

The low-level jet increases again Friday night, though it does not
look as strong as tonight. Therefore, I think there will be another
uptick in the coverage of showers and thunderstorms, but the overall
threat for flash flooding likely will stay mostly confined to areas
that are hardest hit tonight as alluded to in the paragraph above.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 237 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

(Saturday - Saturday Night)

Uncertainty on Saturday increases, in part due to the 2-3 rounds of
showers and thunderstorms anticipated before this time period.
Deterministic guidance though does show a midlevel shortwave trough
moving south/southwest almost beneath the amplifying mid/upper level
ridge to the west. Showers and thunderstorms are again possible
Saturday/Saturday night, mainly across southeast
Missouri/southwest Illinois, which should be closer to the
effective frontal boundary. If confidence increases in the
threat for showers and thunderstorms on Saturday, the existing
flash flood watch may need to be extended in time.

(Sunday - Next Thursday)

Not a lot has changed over the past 24 hours, with a historic record-
breaking mid/upper level ridge expected across the northern
Plains/Upper Midwest. Our area will be within deep northeasterly
flow aloft, so dry weather is expected. The low-level thermal ridge
is also forecast to stay well to our north, so 850-hPa temperatures
are actually pretty close normal (+16 to +20C). Nighttime lows are
forecast to be near seasonal averages, with daytime highs likely a
bit above normal due to plenty of sunshine expected each day.
Relative humidity (dewpoint) values also should tick down early next
week, aided by continued deep northeasterly flow. This means heat
index values should not be too much higher than the ambient air
temperature, and the chances of heat advisory duration criteria
(100+ for 4+ days) seem very small attm.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1048 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Main concern with the TAFs is the potential for thunderstorms,
as otherwise conditions should remain VFR with light winds. This
evening's batch of thunderstorms is expected to remain south of
the TAF sites and ends shortly after 06Z anyway. Another round
of storms is possible in the afternoon on Friday, arriving from
the west and pushing eastward through the evening. Confidence
remains somewhat low on the timing and track of the wave
triggering this, but for now we have included PROB30 remarks for
the time period where storms are most likely at each site.

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for MOZ072>075-084-085-
     099.
IL...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for ILZ079.

&&

SHORT TERM...Gosselin
LONG TERM...Gosselin
AVIATION...Kimble

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
643 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0301 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 SSW Witt              39.25N 89.35W
07/09/2026                   Montgomery         IL   Emergency Mngr

            16 in diameter tree snapped.

&&

Pfahler

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
645 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0303 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 ESE Witt              39.24N 89.31W
07/09/2026                   Montgomery         IL   Emergency Mngr

            Large tree blown down.

&&

Pfahler

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
649 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 SSE Witt              39.21N 89.33W
07/09/2026                   Montgomery         IL   Emergency Mngr

            West wall of a pole barn pulled away from
            structure.

&&

Pfahler

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
759 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0755 PM     Hail             2 SSE Loose Creek       38.48N 91.94W
07/09/2026  M1.00 Inch       Osage              MO   Trained Spotter

            40 mph wind with quarter sized hail.

&&