Flash Flood Warning 8, NWS Los Angeles, CA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
918 AM PST Mon Feb 16 2026

.SYNOPSIS...16/828 AM.

A powerful storm system will move through the region today and
tonight, bringing the potential for severe thunderstorms, burn-
scar debris flows, flash flooding with rock and mud slides,
damaging winds, heavy mountain snow, and high surf with coastal
flooding. Cold and blustery conditions with periodic rain will
occur through at least the middle of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)...16/838 AM.

***UPDATE***

The storm has made landfall along the Central Coast this morning
and is moving rapidly to the east with heavy rain with hourly
rates up to 0.75" and lightning. Radar has been showing signs of
rotation there and there have been gusts to around 60 mph in the
mountains near Pt Conception. No changes to the current forecast
except that models now are indicating a ramp up of activity later
tonight as another strong vort lobe moves through. Expecting
another round of heavy rain and thunderstorms after midnight
tonight, focusing on areas south of Pt Conception.

***From Previous Discussion***

***LARGE AND POWERFUL STORM EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY***

***ANYONE NEAR VULNERABLE AREAS ARE URGED TO START TAKING
PRECAUTIONS NOW***

***SEVERE WEATHER, INCLUDING SMALL TORNADOS, 60 MPH WINDS, AND
ONE INCH PER HOUR RAIN RATES POSSIBLE***

***3 FEET OF SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 6000 FEET***

***SNOW OVER THE GRAPEVINE ON INTERSTATE 5 EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY***

Its go time for today's potent storm.

A 540 dam upper low is plunging southward and is currently 440
miles to the west of Point Conception. This southward progression
is tilting the SW flow over Srn CA more to the south and is
intensifying a front that will sweep over the area today.

The front will reach the Central Coast around 800 am, the city of
SBA around 10 am and the VTA coast shortly thereafter. It should
enter LA county around noon. The front will push out of LA county
to the east around 4pm.

The front will be fueled by powerful low level jet energy (40 kt
at 850mb and 80kt at 500 mb). There will be a 3 to 4 hour period
of strong winds and moderate (isolated heavy) rain ahead of the
front. There will be a 20 to 30 minute peak in intensity with the
front which will present itself as a squall line. Plenty of shower
activity will fill in behind the front and keep the rainfall going
although to nowhere near the degree of the conditions ahead of the
front.

The weather ahead of the front will consist of strong advisory
level winds with gusts from 40 to 55 mph with warning level gusts
60 to 70 mph in the mtns. Rainfall rates ahead of the front will
generally be .33 to .50 in/hr across the csts and vlys. Due to the
strong south winds the south facing slopes will likely see rates
near .75 in/hr with some short lived rates near 1 in/hr.

The weather within the front will be the most dangerous. The lift
from the front will likely initiate convection both with lightning
and without. This convection will tap into the strong winds aloft
and bring about the potential for severe weather (60+ mph
downburst winds and/or weak tornadoes/waterspouts). The powerful
convective lift along with the 1" PWATs could easily bring 1+
in/hr rainfall rates.

A flood watch is in effect from 9 AM to 9 PM across much of SB
county, all of VTA, and all of LA County excluding the Antelope
Valley and adjacent foothills. This means: Flooding caused by
excessive rainfall is possible. Rock and mud slides are possible
near steep terrain. Debris flows are possible on burn scars. There
is also a 20% chance of damaging debris flows.

Rainfall totals through this evening will likely range from
1-2.5" across the csts/vlys and 2.5-5" isolated 6" over the
foothills and mountains.

Snow levels today will start out at 65 ft and will fall to 5500 ft
by the afternoon. Snow levels this high mean that all the major
mtn passes (including I-5 and Hwy 14) will not be affected by
snow. Motorists, however, will still face very strong winds,
heavy rain and possible TSTMs. Significant (1 to 2 ft) snow
accumulations, however, are likely at the resort levels. A winter
storm warning is in effect all the way through Thursday Morning
for the eastern San Gabriels and the northern VTA county mtns.

There will be a marked lull in the action this evening and
overnight. Still the atmosphere is a little unstable and there
will be a few showers or even a an isolated TSTM roaming about.
Snow levels will fall to between 4500 and 5000 ft and a few more
inches of snow will be possible.

On Tuesday a very cold upper low will spin out of the Gulf of
Alaska and move down the west coast. A chance of rain will develop
over the Central Coast in the morning and rain will become likely
in the afternoon. South of Pt Conception it will likely be dry in
the morning with an increasing chc of rain in the afternoon. Max
temps will remain much below normal ending up mostly in the upper
50s and lower 60s.

The upper low will slide the OR Tuesday night and will drag a trof
and front through the state. Hgts will fall to 549 dam. Rain will
develop from the north and spread to the south. There is not as
much moisture (PWATs ~.60") with this system as today's as there
is no subtropical moisture feed. There is, however, a 122kt
(140mph) 500mb jet directly aligned over SBA/VTA/LA counties. This
much energy could really energize the showers and produce some
strong TSTMs. The just will also produce very strong westerly
winds across the mtns. Stay tuned for more updates on this system
as the hi- rez mdls get their teeth into it. The one major talking
point for this system will be the snow levels which will likely
sink to 4000 ft (and lower under convective bursts) and may bring
accumulated snow to the major mtn passes. At this time over the
evening and overnight hours the forecast calls for a half inch to
an inch of rain to fall with higher amounts in the mtns and cstl
slopes. Up to a foot of snow could fall above 6000 ft with half a
foot possible form 4000 to 6000 ft.

That super strong low level jet will really push the front
through the area quickly and by dawn most of the action should be
over. A 20 to 30 percent chc of showers will remain through the
day but additional rain and snow totals are unlikely. All of the
cold air pouring in behind the front will keep max temps in the
mid to upper 50s or 10 to 15 degrees below normal.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...16/1216 AM.

On Wednesday evening the entire state will be under fast moving
moist cyclonic NW flow. There will be enough lift and moisture to
bring chc (30-40 percent) of rain to SLO and north and west SBA
counties. South of Pt Conception there will only be a 10 to 20
percent chc. Rainfall amounts, if any will be under a tenth of an
inch. Snow levels will remain at or under 3000 ft and the Tejon
(I-5) pass will see snow flurries.

On Thursday a fast moving trof will ripple through the NW and will
likely (70 percent chc) bring rain to most of the area. This is a
drier system (PWATs ~ .60") and slightly unstable so it will be a
showery system. Early rainfall estimates call for a third to a
half inch with slightly higher amounts in the mtns. The showery
nature of the system may make the rainfall a little less
homogeneous than typical. Snow levels will be around 3500 ft but
could be lower under convective bursts. Max temps will be solidly
in the mid to upper 50s or 10 to 15 degrees blo normal.

Cold cyclonic flow will wring out a few showers Thursday night
but for the most part it will be partly cloudy cool and dry.

Not the best mdl agreement on the Friday forecast with ensembles
splitting between weak troffing and weak ridging. Enough ensembles
are wet to allow for a slight chc of showers in the morning, but
really think the day will be dry. Skies should be, at worst,
partly cloudy. Max temps will rise a few degrees but still will
come in only a degree or two either side of 60.

Saturday will provide a brief respite in the parade of storms as
a weak ridge should pop up and make for a dry day with mostly
sunny skies. Max temps will respond in kind, rising 3 to 6 degrees
and ending up in the 60s (still 2 to 4 degrees under normal)

A cold 522 dam move towards the PACNW on Sunday and will set up
another round of fast moving SW flow over the state. Clouds will
increase through the day and areas north of Pt Conception will end
up mostly cloudy. A chance of rain will also develop north of Pt
Conception in the afternoon. The warmer SW flow is forecast to add
a few degrees of warming, but if the clouds arrive earlier or are
thicker this warming may not materialize.

Looking at both long range AI mdls there appears to be a chance of
rain each day Mon Tue and Wed (The 23rd, 24th and 25th)

&&

.AVIATION...16/1113Z.

At 0823Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer or inversion.

Moderate confidence in TAFs for KPMD and KWJF.

Fair confidence in TAFs through 15Z then low confidence in all
TAFs. A cold front will move through the area and both cigs and
vis will vary frequently. MVFR flight conds will occur most of the
time, but there will be periods of IFR conds and a chance of LIFR
conds during heavier rains. Good confidence in improving
condition after 00Z. There is a 20 percent chc of a TSTM (13Z-19Z
KPRB, KSBP and KSMX and 16Z-22Z for the rest of the sites)

KLAX...Good confidence in TAF through 15Z with a 20 percent chc
of BKN025 conds. Low confidence in TAF 15Z-00Z as cig and vis
will vary frequently. During this time cigs will mostly be between
010 and 020, but BKN008 conds are possible and brief period of
BKN004 1SM +RA BR are also possible. Better confidence in
improving conditions aft 00Z. High confidence in east winds
through 20Z (strongest 15Z-19Z) with a 30 percent chc of them
lasting through 22Z.

KBUR...Good confidence in TAF through 15Z with a 20 percent chc
of BKN025 conds. Low confidence in TAF 15Z-00Z as cig and vis
will vary frequently. During this time cigs will mostly be between
010 and 020, but BKN008 conds are possible and brief period of
BKN004 1SM +RA BR are also possible.

&&

.MARINE...16/743 AM.

A squall line, in association with a cold front, will sweep across
the coastal waters through tonight. This will result in extra
hazardous marine conditions. These may include a 20-30% chance of
STORM FORCE winds (above 48 kts), dangerous lightning, heavy
rainfall with reduced visibility, small hail, and waterspouts.

A large mixed medium period west swell of 8 to 13 feet today
through Tuesday will likely build further to 12 to 16 feet
Tuesday night into Wednesday. Highest in the outer and northern
waters. Seas around 10 feet may continue across the outer waters
through Friday morning.

For the Outer Waters and Inner Waters north of Point Sal,
moderate confidence in current forecast. Through Wednesday morning,
high confidence in GALE force winds. There will likely be a 4 to
8 hour break in widespread GALES Tuesday morning into the
afternoon, however, Small Craft Advisory (SCA) seas will continue
through Friday morning.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. Through Wednesday, there is a
50-70% chance of GALE force winds with the best chances through
tonight then again Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
Otherwise, SCA winds and seas will continue through Thursday.

&&

.BEACHES...16/156 AM.

A period of very large waves is expected to move into the waters
on Monday, with surf generally peaking Tuesday and Wednesday
across west facing beaches. High Surf Advisories and Beach Hazard
Statements are in effect for all coasts, see the CFWLOX and SRFLOX
products for more details.

Elevated high tides as the new moon cycle approaches will coincide
with the arrival of the higher surf and swell. This will bring an
elevated chance of coastal flooding or minor tidal overflows,
especially during the time of the high tides on Tuesday and
Wednesday. A coastal flood advisory may be needed should swell
guidance remain consistent, along with wind- driven factors.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...High Wind Warning remains in effect until 6 PM PST this
      evening for zones 38-344-345-353-376-378-379-381-382. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory remains in effect until 6 PM PST this evening
      for zones 87-88-340>343-346>352-354>358-366>375-383-548. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Flood Watch remains in effect through this evening for zones
      87-88-348>358-362-366>380-548>550. (See LAXFFALOX).
     High Surf Advisory in effect until 6 PM PST Thursday for
      zones 340-346-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Wednesday morning
      for zones 349-350. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Winter Storm Watch remains in effect from Tuesday evening
      through Thursday morning for zones 353-376-378-379-381-382. (See LAXWSWLOX).
     High Surf Advisory in effect until noon PST Thursday for zone
      354. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Winter Storm Warning remains in effect until 9 AM PST
      Thursday for zones 377-380. (See LAXWSWLOX).
     High Wind Warning in effect until 3 PM PST this afternoon for
      zones 549-550. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Gale Warning in effect until 8 AM PST Wednesday for zones
      645-670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect until 2 AM PST Tuesday for zones
      650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

PUBLIC...MW/Rorke
AVIATION...Rorke/Lund
MARINE...Lund/RAT
BEACHES...RM/Ciliberti/RS
SYNOPSIS...MW/Cohen

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1032 AM PST Mon Feb 16 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0510 AM     Tstm Wnd Gst     7 SSW Lompoc            34.57N 120.50W
02/16/2026  M62 MPH          Santa Barbara      CA   Mesonet

            The De La Concepcion sensor reported a
            thunderstorm wind gust of 62 MPH.

0830 AM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Refugio State Beach     34.46N 120.08W
02/16/2026  E58 MPH          Santa Barbara      CA   Mesonet

            The Refugio RAWS reported a thunderstorm
            wind gust of 58 MPH.

0842 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Gaviota                 34.47N 120.21W
02/16/2026                   Santa Barbara      CA   Law Enforcement

            A large tree branch, knocked down by
            thunderstorm wind gusts, blocked the #2 lane
            of Highway 101.

0920 AM     Tstm Wnd Gst     6 NNW Goleta            34.51N 119.88W
02/16/2026  M61 MPH          Santa Barbara      CA   Mesonet

            The Elwood Ridge sensor reported a
            thunderstorm wind gust of 61 MPH.

0934 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 WSW Montecito         34.42N 119.66W
02/16/2026                   Santa Barbara      CA   Law Enforcement

            A large branch, knocked down by thunderstorm
            winds, blocked the #1 and 2 lanes of Highway
            101.

0952 AM     Debris Flow      3 WNW Santa Maria       34.96N 120.49W
02/16/2026                   Santa Barbara      CA   Law Enforcement

            Mud and debris closed all lanes of Highway
            166 near the intersection with Black Road.

0912 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     6 S Creston             35.43N 120.52W
02/16/2026                   San Luis Obispo    CA   Law Enforcement

            A large tree, knocked down by thunderstorm
            winds, blocked all lanes of Highway 58.

0940 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 10 ENE Miranda Pine Mou 35.08N 119.86W
02/16/2026  M63 MPH          San Luis Obispo    CA   Mesonet

            The Fellows VOR sensor reported a wind gust
            of 63 MPH.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service OXNARD CA
1036 AM PST Mon Feb 16 2026

CAZ362-366>368-370-372-373-379-380-548-161930-
Eastern Santa Monica Mountains Recreational Area CA-
Palos Verdes Hills CA-
Los Angeles County Inland Coast including Downtown Los Angeles CA-
Los Angeles County San Gabriel Valley CA-
Eastern San Gabriel Mountains CA-Eastern San Fernando Valley CA-
Los Angeles County Beaches CA-Western San Fernando Valley CA-
Malibu Coast CA-
Western San Gabriel Mountains and Highway 14 Corridor CA-
1036 AM PST Mon Feb 16 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL LOS ANGELES COUNTY
THROUGH 1130 AM PST...

At 1033 AM PST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Topanga State Park to 17 miles northwest
of Two Harbors. Movement was northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 55 mph. A brief weak tornado possible.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Long Beach...
North Hollywood...
Encino...
Inglewood...
Venice...
Rancho Palos Verdes...
Hollywood...
Downtown Los Angeles...
Van Nuys...
Culver City...
Torrance...
Universal City...
Burbank...
Beverly Hills...
Santa Monica...
Griffith Park...
Northridge...
Manhattan Beach...
Hermosa Beach...
and Sylmar.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3374 11841 3378 11843 3381 11839 3385 11839
      3398 11846 3403 11852 3433 11849 3443 11818
      3372 11824 3372 11826 3374 11824 3375 11825
      3370 11828
TIME...MOT...LOC 1833Z 238DEG 30KT 3412 11860 3363 11870

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Lewis/Cohen/Black

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1038 AM PST Mon Feb 16 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0911 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Dmg Goleta                  34.44N 119.83W
02/16/2026                   Santa Barbara      CA   Law Enforcement

            A large tree was knocked down, blocking all
            lanes of Highway 101 at Cathedral Oaks Road.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service OXNARD CA
1048 AM PST Mon Feb 16 2026

CAZ087-161945-
Catalina and Santa Barbara Islands CA-
1048 AM PST Mon Feb 16 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN LOS ANGELES COUNTY
THROUGH 1145 AM PST...

At 1047 AM PST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms
capable of producing a waterspout over the coastal waters west of
Catalina Island. Movement was east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Waterspouts and wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Waterspouts can easily overturn boats and create locally
         hazardous waters. Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs
         and blow around unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Catalina Island...Avalon...and Two Harbors.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Persons in campgrounds should consider seeking sturdy shelter until
these storms pass.

&&

LAT...LON 3332 11837 3332 11846 3342 11849 3343 11856
      3348 11860 3347 11853 3344 11850 3341 11837
      3339 11837 3331 11830
TIME...MOT...LOC 1847Z 292DEG 48KT 3358 11855 3325 11858

WATERSPOUT...POSSIBLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Schoenfeld/Cohen