Severe Thunderstorm Warning 45, NWS Louisville, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
412 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected Monday evening and
  Monday night. A relatively higher risk for severe weather exists
  west of I-65, but isolated damaging winds will still be possible
  east to the I-75 corridor.

* Another round of strong to severe storms is expected Tuesday
  evening and into the overnight. Damaging winds and large hail are
  the main severe threats.

* Temperatures cool Wednesday afternoon and will run below average
  through next weekend for late April/early May. Mostly dry weather
  is expected after Wednesday, with a slight chance for light rain
  on Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 412 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

A small cluster of thunderstorms is lifting northeast across
southern IN this afternoon. One severe thunderstorm dropped quarter
to golf ball size hail through portions of Warrick and Dubois
counties. This activity formed in an area of robust mid-level warm
advection and on the eastern fringe of a 45-50 kt SSW low-level jet.
These storms have begun to diminish in intensity as they push east
of the richer low-level moisture and the stronger plume of
instability.

Current satellite imagery and SPC mesoanalysis data reveal a plume
of moderate to strong instability extending north into the Mid-MS
River Valley. While the core of this instability plume will stay to
our west over MO/IL/western KY, the 40-50 kt SW LLJ will propagate
eastward over the Lower OH Valley through the evening and early
overnight hours. The robust low level flow should bring mid to upper
60s sfc dewpoints as far west as the I-65 corridor. Despite early
day clouds and scattered convection, MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg should
be realized west of I-65 through 00Z this evening. This could be
important if the convective complex over southeastern IL can dive
southeast a bit faster into portions of SW Indiana and west-central
KY. Think we may see thunderstorms push into our NW CWA a bit faster
between 5-8 PM this evening. Heavy rainfall, gusty winds, lightning,
and hail would all be possible with this activity, and isolated
severe gusts/hail are also possible.

After 00Z this evening, convective evolution is messy and lower
confidence. Multiple discrete cells and convective clusters should
tend to evolve eastward across portions of central KY ahead of a
primary convective line. This activity should tend to grow upscale
before being absorbed by a QLCS late tonight. But expect rain and
thunderstorm chances to ramp up from west to east across central KY
between 00-06Z this evening. Isolated to widely scattered instances
of 60-70+ mph damaging straight-line winds are the primary severe
threat. As instability wanes overnight, storms may tend to become
more elevated in nature (resulting in a much lower hail and tornado
risk). The robust low-level flow and curvature will maintain at
least a low-end tornado risk through the late evening hours.

Showers and storms will exit the region from NW to SE early Tue
morning. Tuesday looks relatively dry overall; spotty light showers
will be possible as the sfc cold front stalls over the region.
However, much of the day looks mostly dry with any additional
widespread rain holding off until after 8 PM EDT Tue.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 412 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

===Another Round of Storms Tuesday Evening into Tuesday Night===

Another fast-moving mid/upper level shortwave trough is forecast to
swing east across the stalled sfc boundary Tuesday into Tuesday
night. Storms are expected to initiate upstream over the Ozarks
during the afternoon hours. It appears at least a portion of this
activity could grow upscale into an MCS, which then races east along
the remnant sfc boundary/instability gradient draped through central
KY. The most likely arrival time in our western/southwestern
forecast area is around 7-8 PM CDT. Large hail and damaging winds
would both be on the table at this time, especially across south-
central KY. The southern portion of the CWA (south of the stalled
boundary) will see stronger destabilization Tue afternoon and
evening ahead of any approaching MCS.

Shower and thunderstorm chances peak overnight, with the chance for
severe weather waning after 06Z Wednesday due to the loss of
instability. A deepening sfc wave is forecast to lift northeast
across the eastern half of KY early Wednesday morning as the primary
mid-level wave swings over the Midwest. Expect widespread showers to
linger through Wednesday morning before tapering off from NW to SE
Wednesday afternoon.

===Drier and Cooler Weather to End the Week===

Cooler, drier air filters into the region Wednesday and Wednesday
night behind the departing weather system. Clearing skies will allow
temperatures to drop into the low to mid 40s Thursday morning.
Modifying high pressure builds into the region for Thursday, with
fair weather and highs in the 60s.

A small chance (20%) for rain returns by Friday as a weak cold front
dips in from the north. A separate southern stream low pressure
system is expected to spread rainfall across the Southeast Friday
into Saturday. At this time, it looks like central KY and southern
IN is mostly likely to stay dry through the weekend with weak high
pressure once again building in from the northwest.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 156 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

A small line of TSRA will lift NE across southern IN at the start of
this TAF period, impacting HNB in the first hour of this TAF period.
HNB can expect MVFR and possibly brief IFR conditions in heavy TSRA.
Lightning, gusty winds, and small hail will all be possible at the
terminal.

Otherwise, mainly dry conditions will continue through the afternoon
hours in central KY. TSRA chances will mostly hold off until 00Z Tue
and beyond tonight. SCT TSRA chances will increase from the
northwest this evening ahead of a main convective line. This main
convective line will push southeast through southern IN and central
KY between 03-09Z Tue. Heavy rainfall, lightning, and strong gusty
winds will all be possible within this line. There is also a low-end
risk for a brief tornado. Low-end MVFR and borderline IFR ceilings
will develop in the wake of the storms early Tuesday. Low clouds
will slowly lift back to VFR Tue afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...EBW
AVIATION...EBW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
414 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-282015-
Orange-Washington IN-Scott IN-Jefferson IN-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-
Harrison IN-Floyd-Clark IN-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-
Hardin-Bullitt-Jefferson-Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-
Scott KY-Harrison KY-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-Fayette-Bourbon-
Nicholas-Nelson-Washington KY-Mercer-Jessamine-Clark KY-Larue-Marion-
Boyle-Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-
Lincoln-Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-
Russell-Cumberland-Clinton-
414 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026 /314 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern Indiana
and central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

There is a risk of severe storms this evening and overnight.
Damaging winds and isolated tornadoes are the main hazards. Excessive
rainfall could result in localized flooding in southern Indiana.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Another round of strong to severe storms will be possible Tuesday
evening through early Wednesday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions
according to Standard Operating Procedures.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and
climate information can be found, at weather.gov/louisville.

EBW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
157 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

INZ083-089-271830-
Perry IN-Dubois IN-
157 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN DUBOIS AND NORTHWESTERN
PERRY COUNTIES THROUGH 230 PM EDT/130 PM CDT/...

At 156 PM EDT/1256 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm near Folsomville, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Huntingburg, Ferdinand, Holland, Saint Marks, Ranger, Sassafras,
Bristow, Bretzville, Adyeville, and Huntingburg Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 PM EDT/600 PM
CDT/ for south central Indiana.

&&

LAT...LON 3835 8676 3810 8664 3807 8678 3808 8678
      3809 8677 3810 8677 3812 8681 3812 8680
      3815 8681 3816 8680 3818 8680 3818 8679
      3821 8679 3820 8707 3824 8707
TIME...MOT...LOC 1756Z 249DEG 40KT 3812 8709

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

CSG

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