Severe Thunderstorm Warning 28, NWS Louisville, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
748 PM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Strong winds from the south continue this afternoon with gusts of
  40-50 mph. Some isolated areas of 50+ mph will be possible.

* A robust cold front will push across the region tonight and early
  Monday morning. A line of strong to severe thunderstorms will
  accompany the front with a damaging wind threat. Tornadoes will
  also be possible.

* Rapid drop in temperatures early Monday morning, with scattered
  snow showers expected Monday. Light snow accumulations will be
  possible.

* Much colder conditions are expected for Monday and Tuesday. Wind
  chills in the single digits and teens for Tuesday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 314 PM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Strong, deep S/SW flow is in place ahead of a deepening low pressure
system moving across the Midwest. A potent mid/upper level trough
will continue to dig over the Midwest and MS Valley through tonight,
while a sub-990 mb sfc low lifts northeast over Lower MI. We have
seen widespread 40-50 mph gusts out of the south today, with brief
gusts of 50-60 mph across southern IN and northern KY. We did
consider an upgrade to a High Wind Warning for 60+ mph damaging
gusts, but the strongest gradient winds were occurring 17-18Z and
current ASOS/AWOS/KY Mesonet obs are all in the 35-50 mph range. The
strongest core of the LLJ also continues to lift northeast across
central IN.

This afternoon, a thin QLCS is pushing east across central MO along
the cold front. This line of very gusty showers and thunderstorms is
still expected to sweep west to east across central KY and southern
IN between 9 PM EDT - 3 AM EDT tonight. The low-level moisture
quality and sfc-based instability still look marginal (up to 250-500
J/kg SBCAPE), but the wind damage threat should be taken seriously.
The southerly LLJ ramps up significantly tonight immediately ahead
of the convective line, with 60-70 kts noted in the 1-3 km layer.
With increased turbulent mixing and convective downdrafts, scattered
to numerous instances of wind damage are expected along the leading
edge of the QLCS. Isolated 70+ mph gusts will be possible,
especially with any bows or surges along the line. Tornadoes are
also possible, but the tornado potential will be limited by the
overnight timing and waning sfc-based instability as the line pushes
east.

Showers are expected to clear the Bluegrass Region around 4 AM EDT,
with strong westerly cold air advection behind the cold front.
Expect a brief lull in precipitation, with rapidly falling
temperatures and gusty westerly winds of 25-35 mph. The upper trough
swings overhead on Monday, with wrap-around moisture pivoting across
IN and central KY. Steepening lapse rates and a cooling/moistening
profile up through 700 mb will yield scattered snow showers late
Monday morning through the afternoon hours. A quick dusting of
accumulation will be possible, perhaps up to an inch in very
localized swaths. Temperatures will struggle in the 30s through the
daytime in the CAA regime.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 314 PM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

It will remain somewhat breezy Monday night as temperatures fall
through the 20s, evening dropping into the mid/upper teens early
Tuesday morning across southern IN and north-central KY. Wind chills
in the single digits and teens are likely Tuesday morning.

High pressure builds across the region on Tuesday, and afternoon
temps will recover into the low to mid 30s. It will remain chilly
into Tuesday night, with lows in the low to mid 20s. Increasing SW
winds and WAA will help boost temperatures into the mid 40s to mid
50s on Wednesday ahead of a weak clipper. This system could spread
light rain and snow as far south as southern IN and central KY.
Relatively drier and warmer weather is expected heading into late
week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 745 PM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Winds will remain strong out of the south ahead of the approaching
cold front. Radar mosaic shows a line of strong to severe storms
working westward. Currently this line stretches from KCMI to KMVN
with another area of development out ahead of this approaching line.
These two areas merge with a main line working from HNB around 02z
to SDF/BWG around 04z to LEX/RGA around 06z. The storms themselves
could have strong damaging winds of over 50-60kts. Winds will remain
gusty with lingering rain and then a change over to snow as colder
air moves in. There may be a period of dry air with this but winds
will shift from the south to the west as the boundary moves through.
Scattered light snow along with gusty winds will be around during
the day with lingering MVFR CIG that arrive behind the passing front
during the overnight into tomorrow morning. Could see CIG return to
VFR after 18z tomorrow.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ Monday for KYZ023>043-
     045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.
IN...Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ Monday for INZ076>079-
     083-084-089>092.

&&

SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...EBW
AVIATION...BTN

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
350 PM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-162000-
Orange-Washington IN-Scott IN-Jefferson IN-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-
Harrison IN-Floyd-Clark IN-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-
Hardin-Bullitt-Jefferson-Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-
Scott KY-Harrison KY-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-Fayette-Bourbon-
Nicholas-Nelson-Washington KY-Mercer-Jessamine-Clark KY-Larue-Marion-
Boyle-Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-
Lincoln-Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-
Russell-Cumberland-Clinton-
350 PM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026 /250 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern Indiana
and central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Strong winds from the south are expected this afternoon and evening,
with peak wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph.

A line of strong to severe thunderstorms will push west to east
across the area between 9 PM EDT tonight and 4 AM EDT Monday.
Damaging winds are the primary severe weather hazard, but tornadoes
will also be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Light snow accumulations are possible on Monday with conditions
becoming much colder Monday morning. Single digit wind chills are
possible early Tuesday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

GENERAL STORM MOTION OF THE DAY:

Storms will move east at 55 to 60 mph.

Any users of this storm motion must be aware that thunderstorm activity
can be erratic and constantly evolving.  Please use this with caution
and be prepared for changing conditions.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and
climate information can be found, at weather.gov/louisville.

EBW

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1248 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1218 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Memphis                 38.49N 85.76W
03/16/2026                   Clark              IN   Public

            Report of tree down on US 31.

&&

BTN

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1251 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1217 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 N Memphis             38.51N 85.77W
03/16/2026                   Clark              IN   Public

            16.4 Mile marker S I-65 Tree down in road.

&&

BTN

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1254 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1215 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 WNW Cementville       38.36N 85.77W
03/16/2026                   Clark              IN   Public

            Tree down in Rd - Payne Koehler/County Line
            Road.

&&

BTN