Severe Thunderstorm Warning 116, NWS Louisville, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
426 PM EDT Fri Jun 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Flash flooding concerns remain as heavy rainfall chances
  remain in parts of the area through Saturday night.

* Summer heat and humidity build across the region next week, with
  triple digit heat indices likely (70-90% chance) west of I-65 on
  Monday and area-wide Tuesday through at least Friday. This will
  pose a risk for heat-related illness, especially among vulnerable
  populations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 426 PM EDT Fri Jun 26 2026

The Lower Ohio Valley sits under the right entrance region of an
upper jet while an 850 jet is beginning to push in from the west.
This is pulling moisture along a stationary front sitting near
central Indiana. Just to the west, over southeast Missouri and
southwest Illinois, precipitable water values are reaching over 2.1"
in an area with MLCAPE values around 1,500 J/kg. Over southern
Indiana and central Kentucky, instability it trying to recover from
earlier convection.

In the coming hours into the overnight, the system will slide east,
south of the front. The very high PWATs will move eastward along the
Ohio River as the low level jet increases to around 35 knots over
the area. This is expected to produce heavy showers and
thunderstorms. This afternoon and evening, the severe threat isn't
overly concerning, but if instability is able to recover, a few
strong storms could be possible. Overall the severe threat is
expected to remain fairly low with flooding being the main concern
over southern Indiana and north central Kentucky, so our counties
along and north of Interstate 64 will remain in a Flood Watch until
12z tomorrow. Later in the night, showers and thunderstorms are
expected to move with the high PWATs farther south into southern
Kentucky. We issued a Flood Watch for the rest of our counties in
Kentucky beginning at 6z tonight to cover the increased threat. With
training possible and the HREF showing 6-Hour Probability-Matched
Mean totals reaching as high as 3-4 inches in south-central Kentucky
during the day Saturday for multiple runs now, the watch will run
through 6z Sunday for when we believe the highest threat exists.

WAA will keep lows near the dew points in the low 70s to upper 60s.
Tomorrow as winds veer slightly towards the southwest, as surface
low pressure pushes in over central Indiana. With some small periods
of sunshine being possible, temperatures are expected to climb into
the low to mid 80s with dew points in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 426 PM EDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Into the day Sunday, PWATs are expected to begin decreasing from the
northwest ahead of a northwest to southeast oriented warm front that
is expected to push east across the CWA Sunday morning, producing
the last round of showers before precipitation finally comes to an
end.

Later Sunday through the rest of the week, an upper ridge axis will
advance east towards the CWA, brining a major shift in the weather
pattern. Dew points in the low 70s and temperatures climbing through
the mid and upper 90s will make it feel hot and sticky. High
pressure under the ridge should keep winds light, providing little
in the way of relieve as heat indices climb into the 90s to low
100s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 426 PM EDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Active weather continues working through the region ahead of a
surface low. This will provide for multiple rounds of showers and
thunderstorms. Just to the north in southern Indiana, ceilings are
in IFR and MVFR levels. These lower ceilings could drop south
overnight affecting HNB and SDF.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for KYZ030>043-049.
     Flood Watch from 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ Saturday through late
     Saturday night for KYZ023>029-045>048-053>057-061>067-
     070>078-081-082.
IN...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for INZ076>079-083-084-
     089>092.

&&

SHORT TERM...KDW
LONG TERM...KDW
AVIATION...KDW

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
140 PM EDT Fri Jun 26 2026

KYZ057-261800-
Madison KY-
140 PM EDT Fri Jun 26 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL MADISON COUNTY
THROUGH 200 PM EDT...

At 140 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Fox, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 45 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Bybee, College Hill, Moberly, Union City, and Elliston.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3778 8411 3777 8410 3777 8408 3776 8409
      3774 8408 3774 8410 3773 8409 3772 8410
      3769 8409 3768 8410 3769 8420 3780 8420
      3781 8416 3781 8412 3782 8409 3781 8408
      3780 8408
TIME...MOT...LOC 1740Z 255DEG 14KT 3776 8413

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

BJS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
632 PM EDT Fri Jun 26 2026

INZ076-077-262300-
Orange IN-Washington IN-
632 PM EDT Fri Jun 26 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN ORANGE AND
NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES THROUGH 700 PM EDT...

At 632 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a thunderstorm with
persistent weak rotation 8 miles northeast of Paoli, moving east at
20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Campbellsburg, Saltillo, Claysville, Leipsic, Prowsville, and
Smedley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3858 8619 3861 8641 3868 8641 3869 8638
      3869 8631 3871 8631 3874 8618
TIME...MOT...LOC 2232Z 265DEG 17KT 3864 8636

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

BJS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
557 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

KYZ023-024-026-027-061-262330-
Grayson KY-Butler KY-Hancock KY-Ohio KY-Breckinridge KY-
557 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN HANCOCK...NORTH
CENTRAL BUTLER...WESTERN GRAYSON...SOUTHWESTERN BRECKINRIDGE AND
EASTERN OHIO COUNTIES THROUGH 630 PM CDT...

At 557 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles east of Hartford, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Leitchfield, Hardinsburg, Caneyville, Fordsville, Concord, Mcquady,
Steff, Ralph, Se Ree, and Shreve.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3730 8680 3762 8686 3779 8639 3745 8621
TIME...MOT...LOC 2257Z 247DEG 34KT 3747 8669

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Neudorff