Flash Flood Warning 98, NWS Louisville, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
218 AM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Showers and thunderstorms capable of producing heavy rainfall and
  localized gusty winds will be ongoing for the start of the day
  today before dissipating later this morning. Locally 1-2+ inches
  of heavy rainfall is possible this morning leading to flash
  flooding concerns.

* Another round of storms is likely (50-80% chance) Saturday evening
  through Saturday night. These storms will also pose a risk for
  severe weather and excessive rainfall leading to potential flash
  flooding.

* Typical summertime temperatures with daily chances for
  isolated/scattered afternoon showers and storms is favored for
  much of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 218 AM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026

The main concern remains hydro and the potential for flash flooding.
With a secondary concern for strong to severe due to gusty and
potentially localized damaging winds from downburst. The hi-res
convective allowing models (CAMS) have struggled at times tonight
with placement and timing of ongoing convection coming out of IL, MO
and western KY. At times their placement of QPF and convection have
been too far north which is a known issue with CAMS. With that in
mind we have turned to looking at both the 6hr and 24hr LPMM
(Localized Probability Match-Mean) from the HREF Ens. and the NBM
6hr and 24hr probability of 2+ inches to get an idea on where and
when we could see the highest rainfall amounts. There have been two
distinct areas of concern emerging from this data with one being
across our far southwest corner of the CWA around Ohio, Butler,
Logan, Simpson, Warren, Barren and Allen counties. The other has
been to the north coming out of southern IN into north central KY
from Louisville to Elizabethtown over to Lexington. In these areas
the LPMM highlights narrow swaths of 1-2 inches with localized
pockets of 3-4+ inches over the next 24 hours. This lines up very
well with the NBM 2"+ probability of 40-60% adding confidence to the
current forecast.

This first wave of thunderstorms and heavy rainfall will work
through the CWA now through around 12-14z with some of the heaviest
and training bands of heavy rainfall from Jasper IN developing along
a boundary near Louisville to Elizabethtown to Somerset, KY. The
other area will be across Warren, Ohio, Butler, Logan, Simpson Allen
counties where we could see prolonged heavy rainfall and
thunderstorms. Some of this convection has had a history of 1-2
inches/hour rainfall rate with localized higher amounts and flash
flooding. While the severe threat is generally low, these storms
could also produce gusty and localized damaging wind gusts
approaching severe criteria (58 mph).

Once this wave passes and moves out later this morning, like we've
seen over the last couple of days, a lull in activity is likely for
a couple of hours through the morning into the early afternoon.
Models begin to ramp up convection development later in the
afternoon and evening as the sfc boundary across central IN starts
to drift southward towards southern IN and the Ohio River and a weak
mid/upper level impulse works into the Ohio Valley. Those features
combined with the atmosphere destabilizing due to daytime heating,
we will get another round of showers and thunderstorms capable of
heavy rainfall and potentially strong storms. SPC will place the far
southwest corner of the CWA into a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) and
the rest of the CWA in a Marginal (level 1 of 5) for severe storms
later today. Like it has been the last couple of days, localized
gusty straight-line winds will be the main threat with any storms
that form. PWAT values once again approach 2.00"+ with model
soundings showing "tall skinny" CAPE profiles continuing the on
going flash flood threat.

The boundary and the upper level low will keep the activity going
into the evening and potentially again during the overnight hours
tonight into early Sunday morning. Currently the Flood Watch remains
in effect until late tonight or 6z Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 218 AM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026

***** SUNDAY AND MONDAY *****
Strong upper ridging to our west will try to build and expand
eastward from the Dakotas and Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes
Sunday into Monday. Lingering upper/mid level energy from Saturday
will retrograde back to west in the form of a weak cutoff low and be
slow to work across the TN valley. At the sfc, high pressure over
the Great Lakes will try to push southward towards the Ohio Valley
and push the quasi-stationary boundary southward into TN on Sunday.
While we don't expect to be as wet as we were Thursday through
Sunday, lingering moisture over the area (PWAT values generally
around 1.5") will be enough to keep shower and thunderstorm chances
around as we go into the start of the week. Temperatures will be a
bit cooler than seasonal normals with highs in the low/mid 80s and
lows in the mid/upper 60s.

***** TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY *****

Upper low is expected to work westward into the central CONUS
sometime midweek as sfc high pressure continues to build in from the
north. There remains some timing and placement discrepancies in the
deterministic guidance when it comes to the upper disturbance and
how fast it exits the region. The slower solution keeps our weather
a little unsettled with daily afternoon shower and storm chances
will the faster solution is a little drier for the middle of the
week. If storms are able to develop each afternoon, weak flow aloft
should lead to mainly garden-variety, slow moving summer storms with
minimal severe potential. Given the likely slow movement of storms,
a lingering heavy rainfall/flooding threat can't be ruled out,
though limited coverage of storms should limit this threat.
Temperatures start to warm to near summer-time normals in the upper
80s to near 90 and lows in the upper 60s to low 70s.

***** THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND *****

A more substantial upper trough is progged to descend across the
eastern part of North America. Medium-range guidance still features
quite a bit of spread as to how much this feature will be able to
push the upper ridge back to the west, which will impact the
forecast for late next week into the following weekend. If the
trough is able to dig more to the south/west, it would bring a front
down into the Ohio Valley that would increase storm chances/coverage
Thursday into Friday. However, a more resilient upper ridge would
support warmer and drier weather over the same period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 137 AM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026

A widespread area of rain with some embedded thunderstorms are
currently making its way in from the west. MVFR conditions are
expected with these storms and areas of heavy rain. Ceilings will
begin to lower with the system bordering MVFR with a secondary layer
below 3kft. A brief dry period is forecasted for early afternoon
when clouds will return BKN/OVC100 before another wave of showers
and storms move in by tonight.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...Flood Watch through late tonight for KYZ023>043-045>049-
     053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.
IN...Flood Watch through late tonight for INZ076>079-083-084-
     089>092.

&&

SHORT TERM...BTN
LONG TERM...BTN
AVIATION...CAL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
133 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

KYZ071-073-110700-
Warren KY-Allen KY-
133 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN ALLEN AND CENTRAL
WARREN COUNTIES THROUGH 200 AM CDT...

At 133 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Memphis Junction, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Bowling Green, Plum Springs, Crestmoor, Memphis Junction, Mount
Victor, Smiths Grove, Woodburn, Oakland, Three Forks, and Allen
Springs.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3683 8658 3691 8663 3700 8662 3706 8613
      3701 8613 3694 8617 3692 8616 3691 8618
      3691 8615 3692 8615 3693 8614 3679 8615
TIME...MOT...LOC 0633Z 272DEG 34KT 3691 8653

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Padgett

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
157 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

KYZ062-063-071-073>076-110730-
Hart KY-Metcalfe KY-Monroe KY-Warren KY-Allen KY-Edmonson KY-
Barren KY-
157 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN MONROE...HART...
NORTHERN ALLEN...SOUTHEASTERN WARREN...BARREN...WESTERN METCALFE AND
EASTERN EDMONSON COUNTIES THROUGH 230 AM CDT...

At 157 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 11 miles west of Munfordville to 10 miles
northwest of Glasgow to 14 miles east of Plum Springs to 6 miles
northwest of Scottsville. Movement was east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Glasgow, Munfordville, Three Springs, Horse Cave, Cave City, Smiths
Grove, Park City, Three Forks, Logsdon Valley, and Haywood.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3739 8575 3716 8568 3698 8566 3682 8571
      3673 8581 3681 8635 3694 8627 3709 8619
      3726 8621
TIME...MOT...LOC 0657Z 260DEG 27KT 3732 8610 3712 8605 3696 8613 3679
8631

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Padgett

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
308 AM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026

KYZ024-027-028-110745-
Grayson KY-Hardin KY-Breckinridge KY-
308 AM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN GRAYSON...
SOUTHEASTERN BRECKINRIDGE AND SOUTHWESTERN HARDIN COUNTIES THROUGH
345 AM EDT/245 AM CDT/...

At 308 AM EDT/208 AM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm 10 miles north of Leitchfield, moving northeast at 25
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Dyer, Constantine, Saint Paul, Eastview, Buras, Hansbrough, Solway,
Big Spring, Tar Hill, and Pierce Mill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3781 8616 3780 8615 3780 8612 3760 8593
      3753 8630 3764 8641
TIME...MOT...LOC 0708Z 243DEG 22KT 3763 8629

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Padgett

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
213 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

KYZ076>078-081-110745-
Russell KY-Metcalfe KY-Cumberland KY-Adair KY-
213 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN RUSSELL...NORTHERN
CUMBERLAND...SOUTHEASTERN METCALFE AND SOUTHWESTERN ADAIR COUNTIES
THROUGH 245 AM CDT...

At 213 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Edmonton, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Edmonton, Burkesville, Cundiff, Gadberry, Curtis, Willow Shade,
Fairplay, Crocus, Ribbon, and Joppa.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3685 8566 3699 8566 3706 8521 3688 8520
      3689 8522 3689 8523 3688 8524 3686 8521
      3685 8521 3677 8524
TIME...MOT...LOC 0713Z 270DEG 26KT 3691 8557

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Padgett

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
243 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

KYZ074>077-081-110815-
Metcalfe KY-Monroe KY-Cumberland KY-Barren KY-Adair KY-
243 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT MONROE...CUMBERLAND...
SOUTHEASTERN BARREN...SOUTHERN METCALFE AND SOUTHWESTERN ADAIR
COUNTIES THROUGH 315 AM CDT...

At 243 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Edmonton to 8 miles north of Lafayette.
Movement was east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Burkesville, Leslie, Gamaliel, Fountain Run,
Cundiff, Curtis, Gum Tree, and Blythe.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3663 8597 3666 8595 3674 8598 3701 8564
      3703 8517 3699 8521 3692 8523 3690 8527
      3689 8526 3677 8535 3661 8553
TIME...MOT...LOC 0743Z 280DEG 35KT 3695 8565 3664 8606

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Padgett

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
451 AM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026

KYZ039-040-046>048-056-110930-
Mercer KY-Woodford KY-Jessamine KY-Washington KY-Garrard KY-
Anderson KY-
451 AM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT MERCER...SOUTHERN WOODFORD...
NORTHWESTERN GARRARD...SOUTHEASTERN ANDERSON...CENTRAL JESSAMINE AND
NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES THROUGH 530 AM EDT...

At 451 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 8 miles north of
Harrodsburg to 14 miles northeast of Springfield. Movement was
southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Nicholasville, Harrodsburg, Ballard, Wilmore, Burgin, Oregon,
Bondville, Dugansville, Talmage, and Riverview Estates.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3786 8444 3785 8447 3785 8450 3770 8494
      3787 8518 3795 8496 3799 8479
TIME...MOT...LOC 0851Z 296DEG 17KT 3789 8487 3785 8507

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

RJS