Flash Flood Warning 91, NWS Louisville, KY

013 
WGUS73 KLMK 090003
FFSLMK

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
703 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

INC123-090013-
/O.CAN.KLMK.FF.W.0091.000000T0000Z-260709T0145Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Perry IN-
703 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR CENTRAL PERRY COUNTY...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

&&

LAT...LON 3793 8654 3794 8668 3820 8663 3819 8650

$$

CJP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
312 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue bringing
  threats of isolated flash flooding, lightning, and gusty winds
  late this afternoon and evening.

* Rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected late week through
  the weekend along a slow moving frontal boundary. Flash Flooding,
  including potential for significant flash flooding, could develop
  late week through the weekend with repeated rounds of heavy rain.

* Additional threats of gusty to damaging wind could develop with
  complexes of thunderstorms moving into the area. Overall
  confidence is low with regard to timing of these specific threats.

* A drier overall pattern looks to take hold for early to middle
  next week. Look for highs in the upper 80s to near 90.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 254 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Now - Tonight...

The closed upper low that has plagued the region for the past
several days will finally get picked up by the prevailing westerlies
this evening, and exit the region later tonight as an open
shortwave. Ahead of this feature, PWATs have pooled into the 2-2.1"
range throughout the column. The lack of deep layer shear is
promoting slow storm movement, and with tall/skinny CAPE profiles
combined with deep freezing levels above 14K feet, efficient heavy
rainers will occur. Localized Flash Flooding will continue to be a
threat through this afternoon and evening with HREF LMPP data
suggesting isolated pockets of 2-4" amounts are possible in 1 to 2
hours. This is similar to what we have seen the past few days for
some areas. Expect a handful of Flood Advisories and a few Flash
Flood Warnings through this evening. Some slow moving showers and
storms could linger deeper into tonight, mainly across our eastern
CWA ahead of the upper trough axis, but overall confidence is low in
how deep they will survive past peak heating.

Thursday - Sunday...

The late week into the weekend upper pattern will feature
progressive zonal flow, with a series of shortwaves and/or
convection induced MCV's traversing our area. Meanwhile, a surface
frontal boundary will slowly sink southward across the region during
this time. The end result will be waves of showers and thunderstorms
riding along a nearly-stationary frontal boundary, and roughly
parallel to the upper flow.

Expect there to be some sort of mostly dry period on Thursday as
lingering showers exit our east with the departing shortwave and we
remain subsident for a bit behind the feature. Later Thursday
afternoon into Thursday night, focus will shift upstream to the next
shortwave embedded within the flow. Some sort of cluster and/or
clusters of showers and storms are expected to develop upstream
ahead of this feature, and then work into our area later Thursday
night into Friday. This cluster is expected to carry a Damaging Wind
threat along with heavy rainfall capable of producing Flash
Flooding. There isn't a whole lot of deep layer shear available for
strong MCS maintenance (20-25 knots with the synoptic flow), however
if you can get enough of a cold pool going from clusters of storms,
we do have some lingering elevated instability over our area into
the overnight to support sustained forward propagating convection.
As a result, we'll carry a damaging wind threat into late Thursday
night/Friday morning which matches with the SPC Day 2 Outlook
nicely. W/NW CWA will have the greatest threat with lower confidence
farther east given the diurnal minimum and uncertainty in how much
of a cold pool push the convective complex will have.

The other threat will be heavy rainfall given PWATs approaching 2"
through the column and already wet antecedent conditions across the
area. Not loving the 08/12z HREF 48 QPF Max and LPMM data for our
area through Friday morning. It shows several pockets of 3-7" QPF
amounts. It should be noted that some of that rainfall is from this
afternoon (Wed afternoon), but still those are concerning amounts as
these products have handled the "high-end" potential quite well with
our recent rainfall events. Flood Watch was lifted for the entire
CWA starting Thursday afternoon and running through late Saturday
evening to account for the multi-wave threat.

That multi-wave threat will continue into the weekend as shortwaves
continue to eject into our area from upstream, likely creating
training convective clusters with each wave. It is possible that any
one of these waves (including Thursday night's) could have enough of
a cold pool push to push the overall convectively reinforced
boundary farther south. Two favorable things could come from this.
1.) The axis of heavier rainfall could shift from the northern CWA
to the southern, or 2.) the axis of heavier rainfall could shift
farther south into TN. Any wave in this series of waves that can be
dodged will be helpful. Worst case scenario would be the same area
getting hit with each wave. Flooding could become quite severe if
that scenario played out. Will continue to message significant
flooding possibilities into the weekend given the antecedent wet
conditions, possibilities of some high end rainfall totals in spots,
and intense rainfall rates overwhelming urban or already saturated
grounds. Turn Around, Don't Drown!

By later Saturday night into Sunday morning, there is decent
agreement that the upper trough axis of the final shortwave will
start to slide south through our area, cutting off the deeper
moisture and the shortwave feed. Strong upper ridging will build
across the central CONUS with the eastern fringes trying to win out
over our area as we go into Sunday. Will keep some lingering shower
chances in our CWA during this time, but overall not to the
magnitude we saw late week into the first part of the weekend.
Expecting highs mostly in the mid 80s each day.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 311 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Ridging building over the Intermountain West and Great Plains looks
to expand eastward toward/into the region by the end of the weekend,
though model differences exist in the northeastward extent of that
ridge. From WPC's cluster analysis, about 70% of long-range ensemble
membership builds the ridge solidly into our area - favoring an
increasingly warm and dry pattern early next week - while the
remaining 30% would suggest a less amplified ridge that favors near-
normal temperatures and allows disturbances to trigger thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 131 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026

A low pressure system centered around the MO/IL/KY state line will
meander eastward across the area through tonight, triggering
scattered afternoon-evening showers and thunderstorms. With storms
ongoing, the highest chances at the airfields will be over the next
6 hours, which was captured in prob30 groups. However, there is a
lower (20-30%) chance thunderstorms could linger for another couple
hours beyond 00z. By around 09z Thursday morning, patchy fog and low
stratus is forecast to develop over the area; tempo groups were
added at the terminals where confidence was highest.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through late Saturday
     night for KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-
     082.
IN...Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through late Saturday
     night for INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

SHORT TERM...BJS
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...JRB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Louisville KY
154 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0150 PM     Flash Flood      1 W Saint Matthews      38.25N 85.66W
07/08/2026                   Jefferson          KY   NWS Employee

            Lexington Rd near Cornell closed due to
            flooding. Nearby Zorn Ave also was water
            over the road.

&&

RJS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
444 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026

KYZ041-042-049-082115-
Bourbon KY-Fayette KY-Clark KY-
444 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN CLARK...
SOUTHWESTERN BOURBON AND NORTHEASTERN FAYETTE COUNTIES THROUGH 515 PM
EDT...

At 443 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Cadentown, moving east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Lexington, Winchester, Paris, Thoroughbred Acres, Cadentown, Bryan
Station, Chilesburg, Constant Station, Hutchison, and Renick.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3797 8446 3809 8447 3821 8420 3796 8414
TIME...MOT...LOC 2043Z 265DEG 8KT 3803 8439

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Padgett

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
345 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

KYZ074>076-082115-
Metcalfe KY-Monroe KY-Barren KY-
345 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL MONROE...EAST
CENTRAL BARREN AND SOUTHWESTERN METCALFE COUNTIES THROUGH 415 PM
CDT...

At 345 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles southwest of Edmonton, moving east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Edmonton, Eighty Eight, Beaumont, Cyclone, Goodluck, Willow Shade,
Nobob, Cedar Flats, and Summer Shade.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3691 8582 3699 8561 3686 8557 3687 8560
      3686 8560 3684 8558 3683 8558 3682 8559
      3681 8578
TIME...MOT...LOC 2045Z 260DEG 9KT 3688 8574

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CSG

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Louisville KY
458 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 PM     Flash Flood      1 SSE New Albany        38.29N 85.82W
07/08/2026                   Floyd              IN   Public

            Water completely over roadway at East 5th
            Street and East Elm Street. Vehicle
            stranded. Radar estimated time.

&&

CAL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
516 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026

KYZ049-057-082145-
Clark KY-Madison KY-
516 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN CLARK AND
NORTHEASTERN MADISON COUNTIES THROUGH 545 PM EDT...

At 516 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Harris Ferry, moving northeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Richmond, Harris Ferry, Goffs Corner, Vianna, Redhouse, Mina, Union
City, Hunt, College Hill, and Hedges.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3792 8399 3790 8399 3786 8401 3787 8403
      3784 8400 3783 8404 3785 8406 3782 8407
      3785 8408 3784 8410 3781 8412 3782 8410
      3781 8408 3778 8411 3777 8408 3773 8409
      3769 8423 3780 8433 3802 8402 3794 8397
TIME...MOT...LOC 2116Z 235DEG 10KT 3778 8420

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Padgett

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
520 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026

KYZ049-082145-
Clark KY-
520 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CLARK COUNTY THROUGH 545 PM
EDT...

At 520 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Winchester, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Winchester, Pretty Run, Constant Station, Renick, Lyndale, Sewell
Shop, Tebbs, Judianne Estates, Ruckerville, and Hunt.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3789 8423 3789 8424 3788 8426 3801 8429
      3802 8428 3803 8429 3804 8428 3810 8407
      3798 8399 3794 8398
TIME...MOT...LOC 2120Z 264DEG 12KT 3797 8421

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Padgett