Flash Flood Warning 86, NWS Louisville, KY

871 
WGUS73 KLMK 072004
FFSLMK

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
404 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

KYC049-067-113-151-072245-
/O.CON.KLMK.FF.W.0086.000000T0000Z-260707T2245Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Clark KY-Fayette KY-Jessamine KY-Madison KY-
404 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM EDT THIS 
EVENING FOR WEST CENTRAL CLARK, SOUTHEASTERN FAYETTE, NORTHEASTERN 
JESSAMINE AND NORTHWESTERN MADISON COUNTIES...

At 404 PM EDT, the public reported thunderstorms producing heavy 
rain across the warned area. Between 1.5 and 4 inches of rain have 
fallen. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing
         flash flooding.

SOURCE...Public reported.

IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams,
         urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Lexington, Veterans Park, Coletown, Spears, East Hickman, Athens, 
  Logana, Centerville, Union Mills and Locust Grove.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.

&&

LAT...LON 3787 8431 3785 8453 3796 8454 3799 8432

FLASH FLOOD...OBSERVED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

CJP

854 
WGUS73 KLMK 072039
FFSLMK

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
439 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

KYC049-067-113-151-072245-
/O.CON.KLMK.FF.W.0086.000000T0000Z-260707T2245Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Clark KY-Fayette KY-Jessamine KY-Madison KY-
439 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM EDT THIS 
EVENING FOR WEST CENTRAL CLARK, SOUTHEASTERN FAYETTE, NORTHEASTERN 
JESSAMINE AND NORTHWESTERN MADISON COUNTIES...

At 439 PM EDT, the public reported thunderstorms producing heavy 
rain across the warned area. Between 2.5 and 5 inches of rain have 
fallen. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing
         flash flooding.

SOURCE...Public reported.

IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams,
         urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Lexington, Veterans Park, Coletown, Spears, East Hickman, Athens, 
  Logana, Centerville, Union Mills and Locust Grove.

At 405 PM EDT...a video on social media showed flash flooding 
occurring along Tates Creek Rd and East Hickman Rd.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.

&&

LAT...LON 3787 8431 3785 8453 3796 8454 3799 8432

FLASH FLOOD...OBSERVED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

RJS

585 
WGUS73 KLMK 072059
FFSLMK

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
459 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

KYC049-067-113-151-072245-
/O.CON.KLMK.FF.W.0086.000000T0000Z-260707T2245Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Clark KY-Fayette KY-Jessamine KY-Madison KY-
459 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM EDT THIS 
EVENING FOR WEST CENTRAL CLARK, SOUTHEASTERN FAYETTE, NORTHEASTERN 
JESSAMINE AND NORTHWESTERN MADISON COUNTIES...

At 459 PM EDT, the public reported thunderstorms producing heavy 
rain across the warned area. Between 2.5 and 5 inches of rain have 
fallen. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Public reported.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Lexington, Veterans Park, Coletown, Spears, East Hickman, Athens, 
  Logana, Centerville, Union Mills and Locust Grove.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.

Stay away or be swept away. River banks and culverts can become 
unstable and unsafe.

&&

LAT...LON 3787 8431 3785 8453 3796 8454 3799 8432

FLASH FLOOD...OBSERVED

$$

CJP

852 
WGUS73 KLMK 072236
FFSLMK

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
636 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

KYC049-067-113-151-072246-
/O.EXP.KLMK.FF.W.0086.000000T0000Z-260707T2245Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Clark KY-Fayette KY-Jessamine KY-Madison KY-
636 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 645 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR 
WEST CENTRAL CLARK, SOUTHEASTERN FAYETTE, NORTHEASTERN JESSAMINE AND 
NORTHWESTERN MADISON COUNTIES...

Flood waters have receded. The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no 
longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to heed remaining 
road closures.

&&

LAT...LON 3787 8431 3785 8453 3796 8454 3799 8432

$$

CJP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
258 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue bringing
  threats of isolated flash flooding, lightning, and gusty winds
  this afternoon and evening, and again on Wednesday afternoon and
  evening.

* Rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected late week through
  the weekend along a slow moving frontal boundary. Flash Flooding,
  including potential for significant flash flooding, could develop
  late week through the weekend with repeated rounds of heavy rain.

* Additional threats of gusty to damaging wind could develop with
  complexes of thunderstorms moving into the area. Overall
  confidence is low with regard to timing of these specific threats.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 257 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Cutoff low continues to meander near the Mississippi and Ohio River
confluence, and the associated PWAT airmass is up around 2" through
the column. Scattered showers and storms have developed in this
moist and moderately unstable (2000 J/KG of ML CAPE) airmass,
however there isn't a lot of deep layer shear as has been the case
the past several days. The end result continues to be slow-moving
heavy rain producers that develop on remnant outflow from previous
storms, and the collapse rather quickly. Basin average QPF amounts
won't be all that impressive, however localized amounts close to 2
inches are possible in fairly short periods of time. A few Flash
Flood instances may arise, and scattered Flood Advisories seem
probable through the diurnal peak late afternoon through the evening.

Convection is expected to diminish later this evening with a quiet
overnight in store. There will likely be patchy fog development once
again, especially in area that see swaths of heavier rain today.
After highs in the mid to upper 80s today, mild low temps only in
the upper 60s and low 70s are expected tonight.

The pesky closed upper low will start to get picked up by the
prevailing westerlies tomorrow, and will likely transition to an
open shortwave as it slowly slides through the area. The morning
will likely start off quiet, however initiation of scattered showers
and storms is expected by late morning into the afternoon once
convective temps are reached. Another rinse/repeat day with
diurnally driven slow-moving showers and storms capable of locally
heavy rainfall. A few Flash Flood Warnings and/or a handful of Flood
Advisories continue to be likely. Temps will be similar to today in
the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 257 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Thursday - Sunday...

The closed upper low that had plagued the area through mid week will
finally get picked up by the prevailing westerlies by Thursday. This
feature will move east as an open wave, with more of a subsident
airmass in place behind the departing trough axis. As a result, we
have lower chances for showers and storms, along with lighter
expected rainfall amounts through the day. This could be the one day
we don't get a bunch of diurnally driven pulse storms in the
afternoon and evening, and more just a few lingering showers earlier
in the day. Will be looking for highs in the mid to upper 80s.

By Thursday night, focus will shift upstream as a shortwave embedded
within the zonal flow aloft ejects toward our region. This feature
is likely to trigger some sort of convective complex upstream during
peak heating, and then work toward our area into the overnight.
Depending on how much of a cold pool this gets going, and time of
arrival it seems feasible that a wind threat could accompany any
complex that survives into our area late Thursday night Friday
morning. Overall, the deep layer shear profile isn't too impressive,
and storms would likely be arriving during the diurnal minimum.
However, all you need is a good cold pool pushing into some
lingering MU CAPE, which we will likely have, and marginally
sufficient deep layer shear contributing to MCS maintenance. Will
carry pretty widespread pops in the late Thursday night/early Friday
morning time frame. Could be some concern with localized flooding
given wet antecedent conditions ahead of this wave, and PWATs
potentially surging over 2" through the column with this wave. One
thing that could mitigate the early flood threat, however, would be
the likely progressive nature of the complex as it moves through the
area. At this very least, this wave may set the stage for higher
flooding concerns with the following waves expected into the weekend.

A concerning setup looks to continue into the weekend as progressive
zonal flow aloft persists over our area, while a slow moving surface
front sinks into our region and stalls. This W-E oriented boundary
will be parallel to the upper flow, and with multiple moisture-laden
shortwaves riding along it, we'll expected repeated rounds of shower
and storms through Saturday night. The final wave sometime Saturday
into early Sunday could be the most potent, and if we have already
seen multiple rounds of showers and storms we could be set up for
some more concerning flood potential by this time.

Ensemble plumes through the weekend show most clustering around 2-4"
of rain for basin average amounts, however 07/00z deterministic runs
show swaths of 4-6" across the area. Given the setup with moderate
instability, periods of high PWATs near 2" through the column, and
tall/skinny CAPE combined with high freezing levels (14-15K feet),
think localized amounts could potentially be higher. Especially with
the W-E training of multiple waves over the same area. Will be
ramping up messaging today, and may have to start mentioning
potential for significant localized flooding as a possibility
through the weekend.

Will mention one scenario that could help us dodge a round or two
through the weekend. If we can get one of the upstream MCS to really
blast through our region, it could potentially set up the
convectively reinforced boundary farther south. Of course, we would
likely have to pay the price with a higher damaging wind threat if
that did happen, so I guess it could be a "pick your poison" type of
deal.

Sunday Night - Tuesday...

Interesting pattern change as we go into early next week. Strong
upper riding characterized by H5 heights around 600 dam will build
into the central CONUS, with eastern fringes of influence into our
area. This should bring us into a drier/warmer pattern with the
previous frontal boundary sinking well south. The setup transitions
to a Rex Block pattern through at least mid week, and should give us
some relief from the relentless rain for a little bit, however at
the expense of increasing temps back toward the 90s. This will be a
notable change after weekend temps more in the lower and mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 151 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Things are VFR at the TAF sites for the moment, however we will run
the risk of scattered showers and storm through the rest of the
afternoon and evening, much like previous recent days. Brief heavy
rainfall reducing vis to low MVFR or IFR is possible, along with
some gusty winds. Outside of storms, surface winds will be light and
variable this afternoon, and then could become erratic later this
afternoon and evening once thunderstorm outflows get bouncing
around. Low confidence on any wind forecast, at least through sunset.

Tonight, convection will diminish however we'll likely have
favorable conditions for some fog development. Hinted at this with
some reduced vis in the pre-dawn hours. Otherwise, look for
Wednesday morning to start off dry with visibilities improving
quickly after sunset.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...BJS
LONG TERM...BJS
AVIATION...BJS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
309 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

KYZ038-039-045-071945-
Spencer KY-Nelson KY-Anderson KY-
309 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN SPENCER...
NORTHEASTERN NELSON AND SOUTHWESTERN ANDERSON COUNTIES THROUGH 345 PM
EDT...

At 308 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles southeast of Taylorsville, moving east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Wayside, Chaplin, Johnsonville, Van Buren, Sparrow, Klondyke, and
Mount Eden.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3804 8509 3789 8504 3790 8505 3789 8507
      3789 8510 3791 8511 3792 8513 3790 8513
      3790 8514 3789 8514 3790 8515 3789 8515
      3789 8518 3788 8519 3790 8520 3788 8520
      3788 8528 3799 8530 3806 8517
TIME...MOT...LOC 1908Z 252DEG 9KT 3797 8520

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Padgett