Flash Flood Warning 82, NWS Louisville, KY

683 
WGUS73 KLMK 040016
FFSLMK

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
716 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

KYC183-040026-
/O.EXP.KLMK.FF.W.0082.000000T0000Z-260704T0015Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Ohio KY-
716 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR WEST CENTRAL OHIO COUNTY...

Flood waters have receded. The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no 
longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to heed remaining 
road closures.

&&

LAT...LON 3743 8686 3743 8690 3747 8703 3749 8709
      3750 8709 3755 8705 3756 8704 3756 8703
      3758 8701 3759 8700 3759 8699 3760 8699
      3760 8698 3757 8689

$$

BJS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
314 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Hot and humid conditions will continue this afternoon and into the
  weekend.  Afternoon temperatures will climb into the upper 80s and
  lower 90s with heat indices in the 105-110 range.  Extreme Heat
  Warning will continue through this evening.  A Heat Advisory will
  be in affect late tonight through Saturday evening.

* A few scattered showers/storms will be possible across the region
  this afternoon.  A few strong storms are possible with gusty
  winds, heavy rainfall, and intense lightning being the main
  threats.  Thunderstorm coverage will be a little higher on
  Saturday and Sunday.

* Scattered storms linger on Monday with spotty coverage Tue-Wed.
  Storm chances increase again by late week with highs remaining in
  the upper 80s to low 90s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 314 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

It was another hot and humid day across the region.  Afternoon
temperatures have warmed into the lower 90s.  Dewpoints were in the
mid-upper 70s and this was producing heat indices in the 105-110
degree range.  Visible satellite imagery shows the center of the mid-
level anticyclone over northern Kentucky this afternoon.  Stronger
convergence and weaker capping has led to the development of an
arcing band of convection from our southwest CWA northwestward
toward Owensboro and then northeast into southern Indiana.
Additionally strong heating over the urban heat islands has led to
some showers and weak storms that fired over Louisville and
Lexington earlier.  Current environment features a highly buoyant
airmass with very weak shear.  The convective character is pulse-
type with wet microbursts, heavy rainfall, and intense lightning.
The overall environment is not expected to change through the
afternoon hours.

For the remainder of the afternoon, convection looks to be focused
over our southwest/WABBLES area and across our northwest and
northern CWA.  Strongly buoyant atmosphere with weak steering
currents will allow strong storms to develop with gusty winds and
heavy rainfall.  The weak cell motions will lead to the possibility
of flash flooding where storms just sit.  Storms that develop a
stronger cold pool and outflow may propagate a bit better resulting
in a lower threat of flooding.  Earlier convection over our
northwest CWA has produced an outflow boundary that will continue to
move east-southeast across southern IN.   This may be enough to
produce some additional convection through the afternoon.  However,
as one gets along and east of the I-65 corridor, mid-level capping
does increase a bit.  For now, have gone ahead and increased
afternoon PoPs across southern IN and into the Louisville Metro and
also increased PoPs down in the Bowling Green area.  Afternoon highs
will top out in the lower 90s.

For this evening and tonight, look for convection to diminish rather
quickly with the setting sun.  Temperatures will fall into the 80s
this evening before cooling in the mid-upper 70s for the overnight
period.  Areas that see appreciable rainfall this afternoon could
drop into the lower 70s for lows offering some relief.  The urban
heat islands will remain the warmest with upper 70s and perhaps even
low 80s for lows. We will let the Extreme Heat Warning go at 900 PM
EDT and it will be followed up with a Heat Advisory that will
continue overnight and into Saturday. Convective trends overnight
will continue to be monitored.  There are a few signals showing up
that upstream perturbations aloft could force some additional
convection overnight.  For the most part, much of the overnight
looks to remain dry, but some convection may fire up toward dawn
Saturday.  Patchy fog will be possible once again overnight in the
low-lying and typical fog prone areas.  Also areas that see
appreciable rainfall will have a higher chance of locally dense fog
overnight.

For Saturday, upper level ridge axis will shift eastward into the
Mid-Atlantic region.  We'll see height falls across the region that
will result in lower high temperatures across the region.  Mid-level
capping will be noticeably weaker and convective coverage looks to be
a bit higher across the area during the afternoon and evening. There
is not a large amount of synoptic scale forcing for convection on
Saturday. So convection will likely be driven by differential
heating and leftover mesoscale boundaries.  Strong to severe
convection is possible once again as MLCAPE values rise int the 2500-
3000 J/kg range.  However, shear across the region will remain
rather weak.  Therefore, another day of pulse-type convection is
expected.  Wet microbursts, intense lightning, and heavy rainfall
will be possible with any of the storms.  Afternoon highs will be
cooler with upper 80s to around 90 expected.  A moist airmass will
remain in place which will help produce heat indices in the
afternoon to rise into the upper 90s to the lower 100s.  Look for
convection to diminish with the setting sun Saturday evening with
lows in the 70s.

For Sunday, a weakening frontal boundary will drop into the region
from the north and should provide the region with a focus for
renewed convective development during the daytime hours.  Afternoon
highs in the upper 80s to around 90 are expected.  Dewpoints will
remain high across the region and may produce heat index readings
again into the upper 90s/lower 100s.  Confidence in exceeding
advisory criteria preclude extending the Heat Advisory into Sunday.
This is due to the anticipated higher convective coverage and cloud
cover which may reduce overall high temperatures.   The atmospheric
profile will remain highly buoyant with weak shear providing another
day of pulse-type storm coverage with damaging winds and lightning
being the main threats.  Flash flooding risk may be more elevated
Sunday as overall coverage of storms increase and there may be more
of an enhancement of training across the region.  Look for
convective coverage to wane again toward sunset with overnight lows
in the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 314 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

===== Monday - Friday =====

By Monday morning, low pressure over southern Canada will stream off
towards the east, dragging in a trailing cold front that will slowly
move through the Ohio Valley in the afternoon. Though total
atmospheric flow will remain weak, PWATs and weak general lifting
from the front will allow for scattered afternoon storms to fire
off. Generally scattered convection will prevail, though a broken
line of storms along the best lift from the front may move in from
the NW. Though confidence is low on a prominent line, showers and
storms in the afternoon will be scattered across the whole area.
Good news is that with continued weak shear despite modest SBCAPE
values of 1,500 - 2,500 J/kg, severe risk seems limited despite the
threat of gusty winds with typical summertime convection. PWATs will
range in the 1.7-1.9" still, meaning any storms have the potential
to bring heavy downpours in the afternoon. Rainfall totals for
Monday according to HREF ensemble guidance suggests a 50-75% chance
of receiving 0.25-0.5", though localized areas of 1-2" are possible.
A marginal risk of excessive rainfall has been issued for the whole
area for this localized threat of flash flooding from storm, though
this threat will be limited by storm coverage. Highs will vary based
on rain coverage as well, trending towards the mid to upper 80s.
Lingering storms will wane as nocturnal cooling takes over as the
weak cold front slowly stalls over central/southern KY. PWATs will
decrease in areas behind the front though uncertainty remains how
far this front will advance to the south.

Tuesday morning temperatures remain mild in the upper 60s to low
70s. South of the front convection will refire once again and be
more concentrated in areas near the southern border with TN or
further south depending on the timing of the front. As this boundary
remains nearly stationary, pulses of energy will ride along the
front and aided with daytime heating to bring daily storm chances
through the week. Tuesday afternoon's storms will be widely
scattered especially across our south with just spotty storms in the
north and highs remaining nearly the same in the mid to upper 80s.

Wednesday the front may sag far enough south where most storms
remain out of the area. Though a storm or two can't be ruled out
with highs remaining in the upper 80s. Eventually, a more prominent
trough from Canada will swing far enough south to issue in more
showers and storms Thursday through Friday. This will be our next
widespread rainfall event as PWATs surge with an incoming shortwave.
Shear might uptick a bit from the trough from Canada, leading to the
potential for more organized convection. Highs remain in the upper
80s to low 90s by the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 108 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

For the afternoon hours, center of upper level high is over northern
KY this afternoon.  A ring of convection will likely fire on the
periphery of this ridge, from middle TN into western KY and into
southwest IN.  Another area of convergence and associated convection
may develop over the Bluegrass region.   For this outlook, we'll go
with PROB30 at HNB/BWG/LEX where best convective coverage could be.
Cigs look to remain VFR through the afternoon hours with winds of
less than 6 kt.  For tonight, convection should quickly wane after
sunset, with light winds expected.  Should see another round of
radiation fog in the low-lying and typical fog prone areas.  Plan on
hitting the fog a little harder at KHNB and possibly at RGA.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM EDT /8 PM CDT/ this evening
     for KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.
     Heat Advisory from 9 PM EDT /8 PM CDT/ this evening to 9 PM
     EDT /8 PM CDT/ Saturday for KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-
     061>067-070>078-081-082.
IN...Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM EDT /8 PM CDT/ this evening
     for INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
     Heat Advisory from 9 PM EDT /8 PM CDT/ this evening to 9 PM
     EDT /8 PM CDT/ Saturday for INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM....BKF
AVIATION.....MJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
151 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

KYZ070-031915-
Logan KY-
151 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN LOGAN COUNTY
THROUGH 215 PM CDT...

At 151 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles northeast of Guthrie, moving west at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Dot, Old Volney, Lickskillet, Keysburg, and Olmstead.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3674 8706 3676 8705 3679 8706 3677 8693
      3665 8692 3664 8706
TIME...MOT...LOC 1851Z 083DEG 5KT 3670 8703

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

BJS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
236 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

KYZ070-032000-
Logan KY-
236 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN LOGAN COUNTY
THROUGH 300 PM CDT...

At 235 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles south of Dunmor, moving north at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Justice, Everett, Agnes, Spa, and Jerico.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3706 8705 3706 8703 3701 8697 3692 8698
      3685 8706
TIME...MOT...LOC 1935Z 200DEG 7KT 3695 8705

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

BJS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Louisville KY
407 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0208 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Adairville              36.67N 86.85W
07/03/2026                   Logan              KY   911 Call Center

            Reports of trees down in Adairville by
            dispatch.

&&

BTN

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Louisville KY
410 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0257 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Lewisburg               36.99N 86.95W
07/03/2026                   Logan              KY   Public

            Reports of trees down in Lewisburg from
            dispatch.

&&

BTN