Flash Flood Warning 80, NWS Louisville, KY

695 
WGUS73 KLMK 281451
FFSLMK

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
951 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

KYC061-281501-
/O.EXP.KLMK.FF.W.0080.000000T0000Z-260628T1445Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Edmonson KY-
951 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A FLOOD WARNING FOR 
EDMONSON COUNTY...

The heavy rain has ended. The flash flooding threat has ended, but 
an areal flood threat remains as waters recede. Please continue to 
heed remaining road closures.

A Flood Watch remains in effect until 1100 AM CDT for portions of 
east central, north central, northwest, and south central Kentucky.

&&

LAT...LON 3728 8645 3732 8647 3733 8619 3734 8619
      3733 8618 3734 8616 3722 8605 3705 8607
      3706 8612 3714 8627

$$

KDW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
658 AM EDT Sun Jun 28 2026

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Scattered showers and storms will move southeast over west-central
  and south-central KY this morning. These storms could produce
  locally excessive rainfall and flash flooding in areas that see
  repeated rounds of torrential rainfall.

* Strong upper ridge over the region will result in the hottest
  temperatures of the summer for all of next week. Highs around the
  mid 90s, dew points in the mid/upper 70s will result in heat index
  values above 100 to near and even above 105. Heat related
  headlines will likely be needed.

* High heat and humidity will continue into the Independence Day
  Holiday with the potential for isolated to scattered thunderstorm
  during the afternoon and evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 333 AM EDT Sun Jun 28 2026

One last convectively-induced mid-level impulse is swinging over the
Lower OH Vally early this morning. A subtle sfc boundary and low-
level moisture gradient stretches from St. Louis southeast into
south-central KY. Scattered showers and storms are already
developing along this axis, where PWATs remain 2.1-2.2 inches.
Moderate 25-30 kt WSW low-level flow and moisture transport will
feed this convective axis through the remainder of the morning
hours. This setup is likely to lead to additional convective
training across portions of west-central and south-central KY,
where a Flood Watch is now in effect through Noon EDT / 11 AM
CDT. The Flood Watch remains in effect through 8 AM EDT for
portions of SW Indiana, where scattered convection remains
possible early this morning. The Flood Watch for the rest of
southern IN and areas north of I-64 in KY (our northeastern CWA)
has been cancelled, as convection is likely to remain southwest
of these areas.

A swath of 1 to 3 inches of rainfall (fairly narrow) is expected
from NW to SE through portions of central and southern KY, centered
on a Owensboro to Columbia axis. Localized totals of 4+ inches
cannot be ruled out due to training storms, which may lead to
considerable flash flooding in isolated areas.

These showers and storms are expected to sink south of the TN border
by 15-16Z today. A few rogue cells will be possible through the
afternoon and evening, but the second half of the day will trend
drier due to increasing subsidence aloft. Mid and upper level
ridging will amplify considerably over the MS Valley and Lower OH
Valley later today into tonight.

As low clouds gradually scatter and lift into the afternoon hours,
temperatures will have an opportunity to rebound quite a bit.
Afternoon highs are forecast to top out in the mid 80s (Bluegrass
Region) to around 90 (Bowling Green and surrounding areas). With a
very humid airmass still in place (mid 70s dewpoints), afternoon
heat index values will range from the lower 90s (Bluegrass Region)
to the low 100s west of I-65. Temperatures will drop back into the
low to mid 70s early Monday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 333 AM EDT Sun Jun 28 2026

As we start a new week, end the month of June, start July and head
into the 4th of July Holiday, the main weather story will be the
hottest temperatures so far this summer.

A strong sprawling 594-597 ridge will build in over the Ohio Valley
and be centered over the Commonwealth for a good portion of the
week. This will allow for daily high temperatures to climb into the
low/mid 90s through the first half and potentially the upper 90s by
the end of the week. Along with the heat will be the oppressive dew
point values into the mid to upper 70s and even near 80. The
combination of the high heat and oppressive humidity will result in
heat index values approaching Heat Advisory criteria around 105 and
potentially Excessive Heat Warning criteria by late in the week
around 110. While forecast confidence is high that the week ahead
will feature our first heatwave of the season (three or more
consecutive days above 90) and that we will likely issue heat
related headlines as early as Monday there are some potential
limiting forecast factors that lower confidence for highs into the
upper 90. The first is model bias towards towards a much warmer
solution. The NBM continues to show a heat bias and that is showing
up in the extended. The second is the saturated ground currently
over central KY and southern IN. As the heat builds in over the area
it will start to evaporate the moisture in the ground, this takes
energy out of the atmosphere and cools temperatures through the
evaporation process.

By the end of the week and into the weekend an upper level shortwave
will work along the northern peripheral of the ridge weakening it
slightly. Forecast models hint that this could be enough to
introduce isolated to scattered convection to form in the afternoon
heading into the 4th of July Holiday. While this could bring some
slight relief, the forecast remains hot and humid through the long
term.

This is potentially dangerous heat and warrants those working
outside to take longer breaks, drink plenty of water and find ways
to cool down when possible. This week is a good time to check on
those who may not have AC in their home and check on your neighbors
during the day when you can.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 657 AM EDT Sun Jun 28 2026

A NW/SE oriented line of showers and storms have congealed this
morning over central and southern Kentucky. These showers and storms
will continue to impact the area through mid-morning. BWG has the
best chance of seeing SHRA/TSRA this morning. Northeast of this
line, low stratus has developed and IFR and LIFR CIGs and low VIS
are present. These CIGs and VIS will improve through mid-morning. By
this afternoon, we will see dry conditions and VFR skies. Winds will
remain light out of the SW today. This evening, winds will become
calm to light and variable.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...Flood Watch until noon EDT /11 AM CDT/ today for KYZ023>029-
     045>048-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.
     Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this
     evening for KYZ023-026-061-070>072.
IN...Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ this morning for INZ083-
     084-089-090.

&&

SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...BTN
AVIATION...SRW