Flash Flood Warning 40, NWS Louisville, KY

115 
WGUS73 KLMK 182056
FFSLMK

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
356 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

KYC087-155-217-182106-
/O.EXP.KLMK.FF.W.0040.000000T0000Z-260618T2100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Green KY-Marion KY-Taylor KY-
356 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026 /456 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026/

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING AT 4 PM CDT /5 PM EDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR 
NORTHERN GREEN, SOUTHERN MARION AND TAYLOR COUNTIES HAS BEEN 
REPLACED WITH A FLOOD ADVISORY...

The heavy rain has ended. Flash flooding is no longer expected to 
pose a threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

A Flood Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT Friday/200 AM EDT 
Friday for portions of east central, north central, northwest, and 
south central Kentucky.

&&

LAT...LON 3726 8568 3727 8567 3730 8570 3735 8569
      3739 8565 3744 8566 3745 8564 3747 8563
      3745 8553 3748 8550 3747 8549 3747 8547
      3749 8547 3747 8504 3741 8505 3742 8506
      3738 8513 3733 8515 3722 8568

$$

EBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1214 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Storms are ongoing across south central IN and souther IL that
  will continue to move east into the forecast area. All severe
  threats remain on the table as these storms have a history of
  producing.

* A Flood Watch is in effect until 12 AM EDT tonight, mainly along
  and south of I-64.

* The cold front stalls across the region, leading to additional
  potential for scattered strong to severe storms, excessive
  rainfall, and isolated flash flooding across south-central KY
  Thursday afternoon and evening.

* A reprieve from rainfall comes Friday and Saturday before the next
  round of widespread rain returns starting late Saturday night.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1214 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

A training band of showers and thunderstorms has resided over
central Kentucky with a west-to-east orientation/storm movement.
This is currently our biggest area of concern for possible flash
flooding as storms continue to develop off to the west. Per the
latest mesoanalysis, ample moisture is in place, with PW values
nearing 2.00". Scattered/mostly clear skies to the south of the band
have allowed temperatures to climb into the low-to-mid 80s, with
MLCAPE values increasing above 1500 J/kg. New development of showers
and thunderstorms is still expected south of the training band area
this afternoon and evening, with the potential for severe winds and
hail. With additional moisture being funneled in from the remnants
of Tropical Storm Arthur, the potential for flash flooding will
increase over this area once storms begin to develop. LPMM from the
12z HREF guidance continues to place swaths of heavier accumulations
across southern Kentucky, so flash flooding would be possible for
any locations that experience heavier downpours or training
thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 133 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

A low pressure system is currently centered over the Wisconsin and
Illinois border with a cold front stretched SW through northern
Illinois and north central Missouri. A low level jet is also
centered over central Indiana that will begin to sink south slightly
as the cold front starts to push SE.

Ahead of the front, a line of strong to severe storms will move
through the Ohio Valley overnight. Southern IN counties can expect
storms to start to move in between 12 and 2 am EDT, and continue to
move SE into northern KY through the early morning hours. Storms
will have the potential to produce wind, hail, and even a few
tornadoes. The greatest severe potential remains in southern IN and
northern KY along the Ohio River. The environment is expected to
hold on to 1500 - 2000 J/kg with the capping expected to diminish
through the night. Additionally, low level wind shear values will
likely range from 40-50 kts as a strong low level jet is over the
area through the night. There is a possibility that the lower level
inhibition holds on and decreases the severe threat to the area by
preventing any additional growth. PWAT values are currently hovering
around 2" and are expected to hold steady. As storms move through
this leads to a flash flooding concern, especially with training
storms. QPF values will likely range 1" to 2" throughout the area,
with some localized values of 3" possible with longer residence
times. A Flood Watch is has been issued for the northern part of the
CWA through Thursday morning.

Thursday afternoon and evening another round of severe storms are
possible for central and southern parts of KY as the cold front
slows over the Ohio Valley. As ample moisture stays in place over
the region flooding will be an area of concern, along with damaging
winds. A secondary Flood Watch for tomorrow is likely for areas in
south central KY. The overall shear profile will weaken through the
day tomorrow, deceasing the threat for tornado potential. Scattered
rain showers and a few thunderstorms will move in behind this line
of storms that will persist overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 133 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

The previously mentioned cold front will finally move out of eastern
KY Friday morning, along with any lingering rain showers. Surface
high pressure will build in behind the front bringing warm and dry
weather. Northwesterly flow will become dominant keeping maximum
temperatures on Friday in the low 80s with mostly clear skies.
Dewpoints are expected to stay in the upper 50s and low 60s, leading
to a very nice Friday. Saturday is looking to be a rinse and repeat
with highs in the low to mid 80s.

Dry weather comes to an end for the later half of the weekend as a
shortwave ejects from the Rockies Saturday night into Sunday morning.
A surface low pressure will then form and move into the Ohio Valley.
Widespread rain showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected to
move ESE through the forecast area Sunday afternoon and evening into
Monday. Severe threats are uncertain at this point, but is not out
of the question. Instability seems to be marginal with the highest
values remaining elevated. PWAT values greater than 1.5" will
quickly build into the area ahead of the low. Long range guidance is
estimating QPF near 1.5" by Monday night, therefore continued
monitoring will be needed for any flooding concerns.

The surface low will move east out of the area Monday evening, with
another area of high pressure building in behind it. Several chances
for scattered rain showers through midweek will be possible as
several shortwaves move through. However, chances remain low as the
high pressure and drier air stays in place. Temperatures are
expected to remain in the low to mid 80s through midweek.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 654 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

A west to east line of showers and storms are moving through north
central KY currently causing lowered vis and gusty winds. MVFR and
IFR conditions are expected to continue through these
showers/storms. Rain showers and thunderstorms will continue to
linger in south central KY through this afternoon and evening.
OVC/BKN050 clouds will stick around for BWG/LEX/RGA through this
evening into tonight. Winds will likely become variable over night
and become northwesterly by tomorrow morning.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...Flood Watch through late tonight for KYZ023-024-026>028-
     045>048-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.
IN...None.

&&

UPDATE...BEN
SHORT TERM...CAL
LONG TERM...CAL
AVIATION...CAL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
130 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

KYZ054-065>067-077-181815-
Marion KY-Taylor KY-Lincoln KY-Casey KY-Adair KY-
130 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN LINCOLN...
SOUTHEASTERN MARION...EASTERN TAYLOR...CASEY AND NORTHEASTERN ADAIR
COUNTIES THROUGH 215 PM EDT/115 PM CDT/...

At 129 PM EDT/1229 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of
strong thunderstorms 8 miles west of Liberty, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Liberty, Hustonville, Bradfordsville, Peytons Store, Lawhorn Hill,
Gilpin, Arista, Calvary, Evans Ford, and Mannsville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Louisville.

&&

LAT...LON 3724 8532 3752 8531 3752 8473 3724 8472
      3719 8479
TIME...MOT...LOC 1729Z 270DEG 28KT 3735 8508

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Webb

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Louisville KY
138 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1110 AM     Flash Flood      4 NE Preachersville     37.58N 84.50W
06/18/2026                   Garrard            KY   911 Call Center

            Water covering Gooch Pike just before
            Anderson Lane.

&&

BKF

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Louisville KY
146 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1115 AM     Flash Flood      Paint Lick              37.61N 84.42W
06/18/2026                   Garrard            KY   911 Call Center

            Old Railroad Grade Road flooded over.

&&

REJ

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Louisville KY
147 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0518 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 N Versailles          38.09N 84.72W
06/18/2026                   Woodford           KY   Emergency Mngr

            Multiple reports of tree limbs and
            powerlines down north of US-60.

&&

JRB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Louisville KY
150 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1120 AM     Flash Flood      3 SSE Paint Lick        37.58N 84.39W
06/18/2026                   Garrard            KY   911 Call Center

            Frog Branch Road flooded over. Water level
            almost at residence.

&&

BKF

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Louisville KY
153 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1130 AM     Flash Flood      2 WSW Lancaster         37.61N 84.61W
06/18/2026                   Garrard            KY   911 Call Center

            Old Danville Road completely flooded near
            the 900 and 700 block of the road.

&&

BKF