Severe Thunderstorm Warning 25, NWS Elko, NV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
1204 AM PDT Thu Aug 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Flood watch in effect for central NV due to excessive rainfall
  and possible debris flows

* Monsoon weather pattern for Central and Eastern Nevada expected
  to persist through the week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Wednesday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Upper level ridging to the east and
troughing to the west continue to funnel moisture into the Great
Basin area. This will result in continued rounds of showers and
thunderstorms, mainly in central and eastern Nevada today before
expanding to the entire forecast through Thursday. Thursday is
also expected to be the wettest day, with widespread accumulations
of 0.25” and a band of 0.5” to 0.75” shaping up just south of the
US-50 corridor. This has resulted in a Slight (15%) risk of
excessive rainfall for tomorrow and isolated flash flooding is
expected with the strongest cells.

The trough begins to lift to the north on Friday, weakening the
moisture flow for the weekend and mostly cutting off storms,
leaving about a 10% to 20% chance through Sunday. Models remain in
disagreement after Sunday, with the biggest question being the
future of the current monsoon event. The general indication is
still for the monsoon to continue in central Nevada, however the
strength and northern extent of the event still depend on how the
upper ridge behaves over the next few days and into next week. The
current forecast is reflecting the more cut off scenario, with
dry conditions Monday and Tuesday and some isolated showers for
Wednesday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence in showers and
thunderstorms through Friday, with moderate confidence in spatial
extent of the heaviest accumulations. Moderate confidence in a
mostly dry weekend. Low confidence in the forecast after Sunday as
models continue to strongly disagree regarding the upper level
pattern. No changes to NBM forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will be predominant at all terminals through
Thursday afternoon though momentary MVFR/IFR conditions are
possible due to TSRA and smoke from area wildfires. -TSRA is
forecast at all terminals through Thursday afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Continued moisture flow into the Great Basin will
result in several more rounds of showers and thunderstorms. While
this moisture will keep humidity levels elevated and prevent dry-
windy threats, heavy rainfall may pose flooding and debris flow
threats, particularly for the New Pass and Ward fire areas.
Lightning may also be a threat to fire personnel, although
associated rainfall is expected to prevent any new starts from
lightning.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flood Watch through Thursday evening NVZ035-037-040-041.

&&

DISCUSSION...94
AVIATION...94
FIRE WEATHER...94

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Elko NV
1102 AM PDT Thu Aug 13 2026

NVZ037-131830-
Southern Lander County and Southern Eureka County NV-
1102 AM PDT Thu Aug 13 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN LANDER COUNTY
THROUGH 1130 AM PDT...

At 1102 AM PDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles east of Austin, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern Lander
County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3938 11689 3941 11698 3962 11696 3954 11670
TIME...MOT...LOC 1802Z 204DEG 13KT 3947 11690

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

94

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Elko NV
1127 AM PDT Thu Aug 13 2026

NVZ035-037-131900-
Southern Lander County and Southern Eureka County NV-
White Pine County NV-
1127 AM PDT Thu Aug 13 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WESTERN WHITE PINE AND
SOUTHEASTERN EUREKA COUNTIES THROUGH NOON PDT...

At 1126 AM PDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm
about 10 miles south of Pinto Summit, moving to the northeast at
around 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of western White Pine
and southeastern Eureka Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3921 11598 3929 11608 3939 11592 3932 11577
TIME...MOT...LOC 1826Z 229DEG 12KT 3930 11597

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

BS