Red Flag Warning 12, NWS Elko, NV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
234 AM PDT Tue Sep 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Elevated fire weather conditions in Central Nevada Tuesday thru
  Thursday

* Low chance for showers along the Oregon and Idaho borders, and
  the eastern half of White Pine County Wednesday and Thursday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through next Tuesday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Upper level trof continues to deepen as
it moves south thru British Columbia. Latest numerical model
solutions depict a cut off low forming over Oregon tonight, with
the low residing over NorCal thru Thursday before ejecting east.
This will produce elevated winds, especially across central Nevada
and White Pine County, each afternoon thru Thursday. South-
southwesterly gusts will be 25 to 35 MPH, reaching around 45 MPH
across the high terrain. Patchy blowing dust can be expected.
Significant precipitation will not be present, though locations
along the Idaho and Oregon borders may experience a brief light
rain shower or two under the influence of the upper low,
especially the northwest quadrant of Humboldt County.
Concurrently, significant moisture across Utah, thanks to a
northerly push of subtropical moisture from the desert southwest,
will spill into portions of Nevada and provide a low chance for a
brief shower or dry thunderstorm across the eastern half of White
Pine County, primarily over the Snake Range. Temperatures across
northern Nevada cool several degrees Thursday as the low and
associated cooler air mass influence the region.

Temperatures gradually warm thru the weekend with a return to
daytime highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s across the valleys by
Sunday. Weather looks to be dry though a low chance (10%) for rain
showers across central Nevada will be present early next week as a
weak Pacific low pressure system moves into Central California
from the west.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: There is high confidence in
breezy to strong south-southwesterly winds each afternoon thru
Thursday as an upper level trof passes thru the western U.S.

Moderate confidence in a 10% to 15% chance for isolated showers
Wednesday thru Thursday for far northern Nevada, as well as
eastern White Pine County where a dry thunderstorm or two may also
be present.

Low confidence in a 10% chance for light rain across central
Nevada early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions will be present at all terminals
thru Tuesday night. Afternoon breezes will be present across
central Nevada terminals including KTPH and KELY with south-
southwesterly gusts 25KT to 30KT. Patchy blowing dust may cause
brief reductions in VIS, primarily at KTPH and KELY, though
confidence is not high enough to include BLDU in the TAF.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Elevated fire weather conditions will be present
across central Nevada thru Thursday due to breezy south-southwest
winds each afternoon. Gusts between 25 and 35 MPH are expected,
reaching as high as 45 MPH across the high terrain. The strongest
winds will be within zone 425. However, the limiting factors for
critical fire weather conditions will be fuels, and min RH values
near or above 15% across zone 425. Min RH looks to reside around
10% to 15% along with fuels remaining cured for zones 426, and
427, though winds will be slightly more modest and critical fire
weather conditions look borderline at this time. Breezes will also
be present across northern Nevada though gusts will generally be
around 20 MPH. An upper level low and associated cold front will
provide a low chance (10% to 15%) for light rain showers along the
Idaho and Oregon borders thru Thursday. Wetting rains are not
expected under any such activity. There is also a low chance
(10%) for light showers and a dry thunderstorm or two within the
eastern half of zone 425 and primarily the Snake Range each
afternoon thru Thursday. That said, the vast majority of
thunderstorm activity will remain to the east within Utah where
atmospheric moisture profiles and instability are much more
conducive for the development of thunderstorms.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...92
AVIATION...92
FIRE WEATHER...92