Tornado Warning 56, NWS New Orleans, LA

738 
WWUS54 KLIX 161417
SVSLIX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
917 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

LAC103-MSC109-161430-
/O.CON.KLIX.TO.W.0056.000000T0000Z-260616T1430Z/
St. Tammany LA-Pearl River MS-
917 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 AM CDT FOR EAST
CENTRAL ST. TAMMANY PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWESTERN
PEARL RIVER COUNTIES...

At 917 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located 7 miles southwest of Picayune, moving northeast at 15
mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This dangerous storm will be near...
  Picayune around 925 AM CDT.

This includes the following Interstates...
 Interstate 59 in Louisiana near mile marker 11.
 Interstate 59 in Mississippi between mile markers 1 and 14.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

If a tornado or other severe weather is spotted, report it to the
National Weather Service or your local nearest law enforcement agency
who will send your report. This act may save lives of others in the
path of dangerous weather.

&&

LAT...LON 3058 8954 3052 8955 3052 8959 3050 8960
      3050 8964 3047 8965 3043 8980 3050 8986
      3072 8965
TIME...MOT...LOC 1417Z 237DEG 11KT 3049 8980 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN

$$

PG

791 
WWUS54 KLIX 161428
SVSLIX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
928 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

LAC103-MSC109-161438-
/O.EXP.KLIX.TO.W.0056.000000T0000Z-260616T1430Z/
St. Tammany LA-Pearl River MS-
928 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL ST. TAMMANY PARISH IN
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWESTERN PEARL RIVER COUNTIES WILL
EXPIRE AT 930 AM CDT...

The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer appears capable of producing a tornado.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

&&

LAT...LON 3058 8954 3052 8955 3052 8959 3050 8960
      3050 8964 3047 8965 3043 8980 3050 8986
      3072 8965
TIME...MOT...LOC 1428Z 235DEG 15KT 3050 8978 

$$

PG

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
541 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

...NEW AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 529 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

- Continuing to monitor a tropical low over deep south Texas as it
  moves north and east toward the northwest Gulf Coast later this
  week. There is a medium chance (60%) of development. Marine and
  heavy rain will be the primary impacts.

- A Flood Watch is in effect through Friday morning for most of
  southeast Louisiana as well as all of southwest and coastal
  Mississippi.

- River flooding potential exits as well with forecast areal rainfall
  amounts of 3 to 7 inches with isolated higher amounts.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Friday)
Issued at 153 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

The region resides in a mostly zonal upper flow pattern as the
base of the very broad H5 trough resides over the area. This has
caused a frontal boundary to stall to our north and with several
small impulses along the front within the mean flow, shower and
storm development has been common. Overall, CAMs in many ways have
struggled to identify some of the ongoing convection such as the
storms south of Vermillion Bay. However, HRRR has picked up on the
current development over CenLa and western portions of
Mississippi. This activity looks to continue to develop and even
become more numerous as the morning progresses. The LIX 16/00z
RAOB shows a PWAT of 2.2" with similar all across the region. That
in mind any convection that does fire will have the potential to
produce excessive rainfall rates of 5" per hour or higher in some
cases. Needless to say with wet antecedent conditions plus
tropical rainfall rates, made no changes to the overall Flood
Watch, which goes through Friday morning.

For today, looks wet. A band of convection looks to develop along
and north of the I10/12 corridor and likely produce some fairly
high numbers in terms of rainfall again given the tropical
environment over our region currently. In additional to heavy
rainfall, SPC has also placed our region in a marginal risk for
severe weather with winds being the main threat...though a tornado
or two cannot be ruled out in this environment.

Going into midweek eyes shift to our south and west where a
tropical low is forecast to move north and east toward the
northwest Gulf coast through the week. High pressure over the
southwest Atlantic will help tighten the pressure gradient
leading to a strengthening southerly flow over the area. As the
winds increase as well as the long fetch over the Gulf develops,
some coastal flooding may result. Otherwise, from this system the
primary impact will be heavy torrential rainfall and perhaps a
strong wind gust or two in the stronger cells. As the feature
continues downstream eventually over the Tennessee River Valley,
it will continue to pump moisture into the region from the deep
tropics again keeping the heavy rain potential going through most
of the workweek.

With POPs high and cloudiness around, temperatures will be below
average through much of the short term period. (Frye)

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Monday)
Issued at 153 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

By Friday evening, the tropical system should be east of the
local area, although it appears a weakness in the mid level flow
will remain along the northern Gulf coast until about Sunday before
shortwave ridging builds back into the area.

Precipitable water values will remain above 2 inches until the
daytime hours Saturday, but won't get significantly below two inches
until Sunday evening. We should see a gradual lowering of convective
coverage Saturday and Sunday, with only isolated afternoon storms
remaining by Monday afternoon. There may remain at least a low end
threat of excessive rainfall over the weekend, but it shouldn't be a
complete washout on Father's Day.

Highs likely to get in the upper 80s Friday, and a couple degrees
warmer each day Saturday and Sunday, with most of the area in the

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 541 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

VFR and MVFR conditions are ongoing across the local terminals
this morning. Most of the convection from earlier has cleared, but
this will only be temporary. Covered SHRA/TSRA potential through
the period mostly with PROBs for TSRA. CIGs/VIS will be reduced in
and around convection and winds will be a bit erratic and gusty as
well, otherwise light southerly winds can be expected outside of
storms. (Frye)

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 153 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

A weak surface high pressure centered over the eastern Gulf and
will continue to dominate the local coastal waters. As a result, a
steady south to southwesterly flow will persist, with winds
generally around 10 to 15 knots through tonight. These conditions
will keep seas near 2 to 4 feet across the open Gulf waters, while
the sounds and tidal lakes remain closer to 1 to 2 feet.

By early Wednesday, a tropical disturbance over the far western Gulf
is forecast to track northward along the Texas coast before moving
into western and central Louisiana mid to late week. The interaction
between the weak tropical low to the west and the strong high to the
east will cause winds to increase over the local waters due to the
tightening pressure gradient. Winds over the waters will be well
into the mid 20 knot range with frequent gusts above 30 knots
possible. Thus, expect the need for a Small Craft Advisories during
this mid/late week timeframe. (Frye)

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Flood Watch through Friday morning for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-
     056>058-064-071-076>087-089-090-092-094-096-098>100.

GM...None.
MS...Flood Watch through Friday morning for MSZ068>071-077-083>088.

GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...RDF