Tornado Warning 20, NWS New Orleans, LA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
647 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

...NEW AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 639 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

- A strong trough will move through the region late Wednesday.
  This will drive a cold front across the region with showers and
  thunderstorms impacting the area during the overnight hours
  Wednesday night. This system will have the potential to bring a
  few strong to severe storms with all modes of severe weather
  possible, and the entire area will have the potential of seeing
  strong to severe storms. Residents should continue to monitor
  the forecast for updates as this threat evolves.

- In the wake of the cold front, much cooler and drier air will
  move into the area for about 36 to 48 hours Thursday into Friday.
  Temperatures will moderate quickly for the weekend, but another
  shot of much cooler air will arrive Sunday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 1201 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

The highlight of the short term is the frontal passage we are
expecting this evening to overnight. General timing is enter the
area about 5pm and depart around 5am. Prior to the front we
expect scattered showers to develop and in fact they are beginning
to form just to our west. Associated with the front itself will be
sufficient lift and shear to support isolated severe storms with
strong wind gusts and a few tornadoes up to EF-2 strength.
Widespread rain amounts will be in the 1" range with isolated
pockets up to 2-ish inches. This will be enough rain to make ponding
of water likely and could result in roads becoming impassable.

As always stay tuned for details as the weather evolves and have
a way to receive watches and warnings.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1201 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Behind the near term frontal system, we expect a period of clear,
but cool weather more typical of the late winter or early spring.
Then, into the weekend warming brings well-above normal
temperatures and humidities. By late Sunday night another upper
level trough sweeps out of the plains bringing more chances of
rain and stormy weather followed by a brief cool-down.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 639 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

MVFR/VFR ongoing across the region will be reduced later this
evening as a line of convection moves east across the region.
Within the line, strong erratic winds will also be possible.
Showers may linger an hour or two behind the main convective line.
Prior to the line, a few isolated thunderstorms will be possible
over MCB and BTR (used TEMPOS until the main line arrives).
Otherwise, VIS/CIGs improve by Thursday morning with a strong
northerly flow some wind gusts in excess of 30kts will be possible
during the day on Thursday. (Frye)

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1201 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Onshore winds around 10kt prevail ahead of the frontal passage
forecasted for this evening and tonight. Showers will occur ahead
of the front transitioning to stronger convection as the front
nears and passes with an increase in wind speed to around 15kt.
Convection will be accompanied by localized strong, gusty winds
and can't rule out waterspouts. When the front passes winds will
shift to out of the north and increase to 20-25kt which has
prompted a Small Craft Advisory. As the impacts of the passing
front decrease, wind speeds drop below 10kt and turn easterly
through the weekend. Another system very late in the weekend is
likely to produce another round of hazardous marine conditions.

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ530-
     532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ532-
     534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM....DS
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...DS