Special Weather Statement, NWS New Orleans, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
104 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1255 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast
  mainly during the afternoon hours today and Friday. A few
  storms could become strong both days. The main threat from any
  severe storms will be damaging wind gusts. Frequent lightning
  and periods of heavy rain will also be possible from these
  storms. Stay weather aware and remember when thunder roars, go
  indoors.

- The increase in rain chances and cloud cover will help limit
  heat threats, however, heat index values may still approach
  advisory criteria before thunderstorms develop by early
  afternoon. Those with outdoor plans should continue to take
  precautions to avoid heat-related illnesses. Stay hydrated and
  take breaks in the shade or air conditioning if possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Sunday)
Issued at 1255 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Upper ridging continued to be centered near the Four Corners area
during the evening with a deep upper trough to the east of the
ridge extending from Lake Huron to Florida. A shortwave moving
toward the base of the trough was over Arkansas during the
evening.

Locally, there was a small area of thunderstorms between
Hattiesburg and Gulfport that was sagging southward, and will
reach Interstate 10 in the next 2 hours. A more extensive area of
storms was noted near Interstate 20, also sinking southward. The
storms near Interstate 20 are likely to make it into southwest
Mississippi around 4 AM CDT with heavy rain and brief gusty winds.
Ahead of the storms, temperatures were in the upper 70s to mid
80s at midnight CDT.

Main forecast question this morning is how far southward will the
convection near Interstate 20 make it? Some of the mesoscale
models dissipate this area of convection by mid morning, while
others (like the FV3) drive it into the coastal waters. The
forecast scenario we'll go with has the early morning convection
running out of energy and real estate around mid-morning, with
regeneration by mid afternoon. This batch will make it into early
evening before dissipating.

Precipitable water values diminish somewhat for the weekend, but
still remain near the 75th percentile (1.95). That will be
sufficient for at least scattered thunderstorms each day, mainly
during the heat of the day, as the troughing retreats far enough
west to temporarily get the local area back to what seems to be
the prevailing pattern this season, where the local area is stuck
in the weakness between 2 ridges.

With the multiple rounds of precipitation expected today, high
temperatures probably won't get out of the 80s, although its going
to be pretty humid. Saturday will probably be the warmest of the
set, as moisture levels will be at a moderate level, getting into
the lower 90s. Overnight lows will be 3 to 5 degrees above normal,
mainly middle 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 1255 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

As we move into the extended portion of the forecast the pattern
will begin to shift. The weak troughing over the southeastern CONUS
into the north-central Gulf will get squeezed as ridging to our west
and northwest builds east. This will lead to a weak cut-off mid lvl
low remaining in place over the northern Gulf late Sunday which will
then slowly drift west-southwest into the western Gulf by Tuesday
night. There will be ample moisture to work with and thus we will
likely see diurnal convection each day.

At the sfc broad and weak high pressure will be centered well off to
the east-northeast leaving a rather weak pressure gradient in place.
This will also lead to generally weak southeast flow however winds
will be somewhat dictated by diurnal shifts as well especially
closer to the coast where the southeast winds will likely be a
little enhanced from the late morning through the afternoon hours.
Winds in the low levels will also be mostly light and out of the
southeast or light and variable. With winds becoming more
southeasterly from the sfc to at least h85 each day by late morning
the seabreeze will not have much of a problem penetrating well
inland through the afternoon. Combine that with more than sufficient
moisture and broad weak low aloft afternoon showers and
thunderstorms look like a pretty good bet. Now at any one point in
the afternoon we probably won't have any more than scattered
coverage but PoPs especially the southern half of the CWA will be
around 60 possibly 70% a few afternoons. These will be more of the
typical Summer type afternoon thunderstorm with maybe a few strong
storms possible but the biggest issues from any of these storms will
be cloud to ground lightning and brief locally heavy rain.

Temperature wise we will end the weekend and begin the new work week
with near normal to slightly above normal temps but by mid week it
looks like we may start to warm back up. As the low moves farther to
the west the ridge will begin to build back in over the area. With
that we will see the rain chances start to fall as suppression
increases across the region. By Wednesday we may be back into the
mid 90s across the northern 3rd/half of the CWA. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1255 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Terminals have generally been VFR this morning, with the exception
of KGPT, which just started reporting MVFR ceilings. Will need to
carry TSRA for next couple hours at KGPT and may need to add it to
KASD if trends continue.

Additionally, there is a more extensive band of TSRA near
Interstate 20 that should approach KMCB and KBTR by about 09z or
10. Have carried some mention of gusty winds in there (20-30 kts).
These storms should move off into the Gulf or dissipate by mid-
morning, Most of the convection allowing models show re-generation
of storms around the middle of the day. These storms should
dissipate by sunset and potentially redevelop again on Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1255 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Surface high pressure over the Gulf will maintain a generally
weak pressure gradient through much of the period. Weak and
variable winds around 5 to 10 knots and varying between southerly
and westerly will predominate through the week. Scattered
thunderstorms will remain possible every day with winds and waves
higher in and near this activity.

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....CAB
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1228 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

LAZ039-MSZ077-083-270600-
Washington LA-Northern Hancock MS-Pearl River MS-
1228 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
WASHINGTON PARISH, NORTHEASTERN HANCOCK AND PEARL RIVER COUNTIES
THROUGH 100 AM CDT
...

At 1227 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles southeast of Sandy Hook to 10 miles
northeast of Crossroads to near Poplarville to 15 miles west of
Perkinston. Movement was southwest at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Bogalusa, Poplarville, Varnado, Mcneil, Crossroads, and Angie.

This includes Interstate 59 in Mississippi between mile markers 14
and 42.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3059 8934 3064 8963 3073 8982 3090 8993
      3101 8980 3100 8975 3101 8951 3100 8947
      3098 8947 3098 8943 3101 8942 3101 8935
TIME...MOT...LOC 0527Z 044DEG 16KT 3097 8974 3087 8963 3082 8950 3077
8940

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Frye

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
100 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

LAZ039-MSZ077-083-084-270645-
Washington LA-Northern Hancock MS-Northern Harrison MS-
Pearl River MS-
100 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
WASHINGTON PARISH, HARRISON, NORTHEASTERN HANCOCK AND PEARL RIVER
COUNTIES THROUGH 145 AM CDT
...

At 1259 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Varnado to 7 miles south of Poplarville to
12 miles southwest of McHenry to near Saucier. Movement was south at
10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Gulfport, Biloxi, Bogalusa, Poplarville, Saucier, Lyman, Mcneil, and
Crossroads.

This includes Interstate 59 in Mississippi between mile markers 9 and
42.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3065 8934 3065 8925 3068 8924 3068 8889
      3049 8891 3044 8934 3049 8956 3080 8986
      3100 8976 3101 8951 3100 8947 3098 8947
      3098 8943 3101 8942 3101 8935
TIME...MOT...LOC 0559Z 007DEG 10KT 3093 8977 3073 8950 3063 8932 3064
8908

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Frye

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
120 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

MSZ084-087-088-270645-
Southern Harrison MS-Southern Jackson MS-Northern Harrison MS-
120 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
HARRISON AND SOUTHWESTERN JACKSON COUNTIES THROUGH 145 AM CDT
...

At 120 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Biloxi, moving northeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Gulfport, Biloxi, Ocean Springs, Long Beach, St. Martin, D'iberville,
Latimer, Gulf Hills, and Gulfport Airport.

This includes the following Interstates...
 Interstate 10 in Mississippi between mile markers 29 and 53.
 Interstate 110 in Mississippi between mile markers 1 and 4.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3037 8879 3036 8887 3037 8890 3036 8891
      3036 8897 3034 8917 3046 8919 3051 8888
      3050 8888 3052 8877
TIME...MOT...LOC 0620Z 215DEG 9KT 3047 8900

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Frye

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
148 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

LAZ039-079-MSZ077-083-084-086-087-270745-
Washington LA-Northern St. Tammany LA-Southern Harrison MS-
Northern Hancock MS-Southern Hancock MS-Northern Harrison MS-
Pearl River MS-
148 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL ST.
TAMMANY AND EASTERN WASHINGTON PARISHES, HARRISON, NORTHERN HANCOCK
AND PEARL RIVER COUNTIES THROUGH 245 AM CDT
...

At 147 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Varnado to Mcneil to near Long Beach.
Movement was west at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Gulfport, Biloxi, Long Beach, Bogalusa, Picayune, Bay St. Louis,
Waveland, Pass Christian, Poplarville, Diamondhead, Varnado, Sun,
Kiln, Lyman, Crossroads, Saucier, Bush, Mcneil, Shoreline Park, and
Angie.

This includes the following Interstates...
 Interstate 10 in Mississippi between mile markers 11 and 37.
 Interstate 59 in Mississippi between mile markers 2 and 37.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3097 8946 3084 8934 3065 8934 3065 8925
      3068 8924 3068 8914 3055 8899 3033 8909
      3028 8927 3029 8931 3028 8933 3060 8991
      3091 9008 3100 8987
TIME...MOT...LOC 0647Z 076DEG 12KT 3087 8990 3066 8964 3039 8914

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Frye

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
208 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

LAZ039-MSZ071-270745-
Washington LA-Walthall MS-
208 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
WASHINGTON PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN WALTHALL
COUNTIES THROUGH 245 AM CDT
...

At 208 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Tylertown, or 15 miles north of Franklinton, moving east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Franklinton, Tylertown, and Dexter.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3118 9003 3117 9000 3113 9000 3113 8994
      3107 8992 3107 8984 3100 8984 3096 8990
      3076 9009 3118 9024 3122 9003
TIME...MOT...LOC 0708Z 259DEG 7KT 3107 9011

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Frye