Severe Thunderstorm Warning 97, NWS New Orleans, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
613 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 608 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

- Heat index values will be in the 105 to 110 range for most areas
  today and a heat advisory has been issued. Those with outdoor
  plans or work should take precautions to avoid heat- related
  iillnesses. Drink plenty of water, wear light- weight and
  loose- fitting clothing, and take breaks in the shade or air
  conditioning during the afternoon hours.

- Daily scattered to numerous showers and storms with the highest
  chances on Wednesday. Widespread severe weather and heavy rain
  will be low, a few storms each day could become strong to severe
  gusty winds and/or locally heavy rainfall. The potential will
  exist for waterspout and tornado activity as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Friday night)
Issued at 139 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Broad scale 594dm ridge is currently encompassing pretty much all
of the southeastern US. The center is a few hundred miles
northeast of the CWA but plenty close enough for subsidence to
hinder convective development. The GFS is pretty bullish in that
it indicates late evening complex developing INVOF the Florida
Panhandle out of discrete cells before tracking west along the
northern Gulf Coast and into the local area late evening. Some
CAMs do acknowledge some potential of this easterly wave but
generally agree that storms dissipate before reaching the CWA. A
slight drift of the center of the upper high to the northeast
Wednesday looks open the door per se to development of afternoon
storms. At the same time, that easterly wave will bring a
localized increase in atmospheric column moisture. The POPs
forecast of 50-80% accounts for those 2 changes. Will certainly
have to keep an eye out for marginally severe downbursts.

The arguably more impactful weather hazard though is heat. 500mb
heights what they are and will be tomorrow combined with mid/upper
70 degree dewpoints in place. Heat Advisory in effect today will be
extended through Wednesday. Storms that develop will provide relief
but later day initiation means many hours of heat indices 108+ for
many locations.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Monday night)
Issued at 139 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Looks like a pretty typical summertime pattern for the remainder of
the weekend and going into the holiday weekend. Global models show
northern stream trough tracking across the country will aide in
transition of upper ridge centered over the southeast US to the
Desert Southwest. In doing so, locally we'll lose inhibition thats
been limiting storm coverage lately. Many days this upcoming week
will see storms developing initially along seabreeze convergence
boundaries. Once those storms becoming mature and then outflow
dominate, they'll spread to other portions of the local forecast
area. Areas that don't see storm development until later in the
day will be more likely to approach heat advisory criteria.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 608 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

VFR conditions are prevailing at all terminals with light winds
less than 10 knots. Monitoring SH/TS over the Florida Panhandle
and coastal AL that are moving west toward the MS Coast. TSRA
impacts will be possible at GPT this evening if this convection
can hold together long enough. After sunset, convection should
begin to wane and aside from SHRA TEMPOs for these remnants at
ASD/NEW/MSY do not expect any additional impacts tonight. Coverage
of SH/TS will be more prevalent beginning after 1800 UTC at most
terminals though GPT, NEW, and MSY may have a more limited chance
of impacts if the lake/sea breezes can move inland enough prior to
afternoon TS development. Highest likelihood of TSRA impacts
appear to be at BTR and HUM between 2100-0000 UTC on Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 139 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Aside from a weak easterly wave moving through the northern Gulf
overnight tonight, the pattern will be dominated by high pressure
influences. Winds will generally be 10kts or less and direction will
vary through midweek, becoming more predominantly southerly as high
pressure builds over the eastern Gulf late in the week. The overall
gradient is relatively weak which is why winds struggle to exceed 10
kts and seas/waves mostly under a couple feet. Generally isolated to
scattered showers and storms can be expected each day, with
potential for more numerous/widespread convection on Wednesday
associated with the easterly wave. A few stronger storms could
produce gusty winds and/or waterspouts, and locally hazardous seas
during the second half of the work week.

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 6 PM CDT Wednesday for LAZ034>037-
     039-046>048-056>058-064-070-071-076>087-089>100.

GM...None.
MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 6 PM CDT Wednesday for MSZ068>071-
     077-083>088.

GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...ME
LONG TERM....ME
AVIATION...TJS
MARINE...ME

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
716 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

MSZ085-088-010100-
Northern Jackson MS-Southern Jackson MS-
716 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF EASTERN JACKSON
COUNTY THROUGH 800 PM CDT
...

At 715 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms over Grand Bay, moving west at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Pascagoula, Moss Point, Escatawpa, Wade, Helena, Hurley, and Big
Point.

This includes Interstate 10 in Mississippi between mile markers 68
and 76.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3038 8856 3072 8857 3069 8841 3046 8840
      3040 8840
TIME...MOT...LOC 0015Z 090DEG 10KT 3052 8835

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH