Severe Thunderstorm Warning 61, NWS New Orleans, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1240 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1230 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026

- An active weather pattern will continue through the weekend with
  several rounds of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast.

- The main concern will be potential for locally heavy rainfall,
  especially today. High rainfall rates in some storms will be
  capable of overwhelming drainage capacity and leading to ponding
  of water in low lying and poor drainage areas, with the
  heaviest storms potentially leading to isolated flash flooding.
  While severe weather is a less likely threat, one or two strong
  to severe storms cannot be ruled out. IF any storms become
  severe, the main threats will be damaging wind gusts and hail.

- Residents should remain weather-aware through the weekend and
  plan ahead for potential street flooding - especially if normal
  commuting routes include flood-prone underpasses and other poor
  drainage spots.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Monday)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026

Upper features at late evening included a trough from southern
Missouri into west Texas, with ridging over the desert Southwest.
A strong shortwave was moving into Idaho and Montana. At the
surface, a stationary boundary was off the Louisiana coast, and
another from the Ohio Valley to Oklahoma to west Texas. High
pressure was off the Carolina coast. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms were occurring along the Interstate 10/12 corridor
from Slidell to near Opelousas. Temperatures were in the upper 60s
and lower 70s. The scattered to locally numerous showers should
continue overnight.

What seems to be fairly consistent is that another disturbance
will race through the local area during the daytime hours, leading
to yet another round of widespread showers and storms, especially
along/north of the interstate corridor. With precipitable water
values near 1.9 inches, efficient rainfall in some of these
storms will continue to lead to at least an isolated flash flood
threat. We will have a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall across
much of the area today.

Going into Sunday it'll be more of the same. Another fast-moving
disturbance will move through the local area some time
Sunday/Sunday night, forcing a cold front through the area with
another round of showers and storms accompanying it. This activity
currently looks to remain a bit more progressive, which should
help limit the flash flood threat.

The global models have slowed the timing of the trough passage
down somewhat, so that precipitation could linger into the daytime
hours Monday before departing. It might be late in the day before
clearing occurs, which would hold high temperatures down a bit.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026

All of the long term guidance remains in good agreement that a deep
layer northwesterly flow regime and strong riding in the low to mid
levels will remain in place through the end of the week.  Ample
subsidence and dry air advection into the area will keep a strong
mid-level capping inversion in place through the week, and this will
help limit cloud development each day. At most, some fair weather
cumulus will develop beneath the inversion as temperatures warm into
the low to mid 80s each afternoon.  The dry airmass in place will
also allow for a large diurnal range of around 30 degrees early in
the week.  Overnight lows will easily fall into the low to mid 50s
over inland areas the lower 60s along the Louisiana coast both
Monday and Tuesday night.  Some gradual modification of overnight
lows will occur later in the week as low level moisture slowly
increases.  However, lows will still cool a good 20 degrees into the
low to mid 60s each night.  Overall, a very pleasant stretch of
weather is expected for the upcoming workweek.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026

A stationary front will continue to linger near the area for much
of the day. Periods of shower and thunderstorm activity will
continue for the remainder of the night, but may stay north of
KHUM, KNEW and KMSY. IFR conditions with visibilities of 1 to 2
miles and ceilings of 300 to 800 feet can be expected with the
heaviest storms. Outside of the convective threat, prevailing MVFR
ceilings of 1000 to 2000 can be expected at the terminals through
the daytime hours, with some potential to improve to VFR, at least
temporarily, beyond 00z Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026

Winds have been a bit more easterly over the coastal waters this
evening with the stationary front off the Louisiana coast straddling
our coastal waters. As the boundary moves northward later today,
winds will again become south to southeast winds at 10 to 15
knots, and will persist through the weekend. Another frontal
boundary will move into the waters Sunday night into Monday
morning, bringing offshore winds to the waters for early next
week. Winds should remain below headline criteria through the
period, with the greatest concern being scattered to numerous
showers and storms, mainly today through Sunday night or Monday
morning.

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....PG
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RW

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
101 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026

MSZ086-090630-
Southern Hancock MS-
101 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN HANCOCK
COUNTY THROUGH 130 AM CDT
...

At 101 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Stennis Space Center, or 11 miles west of Diamondhead, moving east at
30 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea to half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Bay St. Louis, Waveland, Diamondhead, Shoreline Park, Stennis Space
Center, and Kiln.

This includes Interstate 10 in Mississippi between mile markers 1 and
18.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3026 8936 3030 8964 3031 8963 3041 8962
      3042 8953 3040 8934 3037 8934 3037 8932
      3036 8933 3031 8930
TIME...MOT...LOC 0601Z 277DEG 27KT 3036 8955

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

KLG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
128 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026

LAZ034-046>048-090700-
Iberville LA-Pointe Coupee LA-West Baton Rouge LA-
East Baton Rouge LA-
128 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF WEST BATON ROUGE,
SOUTHEASTERN POINTE COUPEE, NORTHWESTERN IBERVILLE AND NORTHWESTERN
EAST BATON ROUGE PARISHES THROUGH 200 AM CDT
...

At 127 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Erwinville to near Maringouin. Movement
was east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel to penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Baton Rouge, Zachary, Baker, Port Allen, Brusly, Livonia, Maringouin,
Rosedale, Grosse Tete, Merrydale, Erwinville, Central, Brownfields,
and Baton Rouge Airport.

This includes the following Interstates...
 Interstate 10 in Louisiana between mile markers 138 and 154.
 Interstate 110 in Louisiana between mile markers 1 and 8.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3062 9101 3054 9102 3039 9128 3043 9163
      3052 9162 3064 9135
TIME...MOT...LOC 0627Z 281DEG 28KT 3059 9136 3047 9157

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

KLG