Severe Thunderstorm Warning 52, NWS New Orleans, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
708 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 659 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

- An active weather pattern will continue through the weekend with
  several rounds of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast.
  Some of the storms could become strong to severe and/or produce
  heavy rainfall at times, especially this afternoon through this
  evening across southwestern Mississippi and adjacent parishes of
  southeastern Louisiana.

- Regarding the threats this evening, the main concern will be
  across areas north of the I-10 corridor with the greatest
  threat across southwestern Mississippi. Any storms that become
  severe will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large
  hail, and a few tornadoes of up to EF2 intensity. High rain
  rates could also result in isolated flash flooding and ponding
  of water in low lying and poor drainage areas.

- Residents should remain weather aware and pay attention to the
  forecast for updates and changes as specific timing and threat
  details regarding additional showers and storms through the
  weekend will continue to be refined.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 659 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

Main concern over the next 3-6 hours will be in Tornado Watch 186
along the Mississippi-Louisiana line, where isolated severe
supercells continue to move east-northeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Friday)
Issued at 124 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

A series of fast-moving upper disturbances will lead to active
weather through the end of the work week. First disturbance will
force a cold front toward the area through tonight. Ahead of the
front, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will
develop, and we're already starting to see light showers across
northern portions of the area. This activity will gradually
intensify in response to favorable jet dynamics moving through the
middle/lower Mississippi Valley.

Best forcing for severe looks to be just a bit north of the local
area, more across central Mississippi where there is an enhanced
risk of severe weather. However, it wouldn't take much in the way
of a southward shift for that better forcing to include our
southwestern Mississippi counties. That being said, the latest
update to the severe weather outlook did expand the enhanced risk
area to include northern portions of the southwestern Mississippi
counties to account for a slight southward trend in some of the
guidance. There will be plenty of shear in place and the main
question is whether storms will be able to take full advantage of
the low level shear as discrete cells or whether they will congeal
into more of a cluster or quasi-linear mode. If the latter,
individual storm inflow may be disrupted by other nearby storms,
which would help limit the severe potential of most cells.

Will need to monitor trends closely as storms begin to develop and
strengthen since there won't be a huge distance between the
"launch pad" and where the severe weather threat materializes.
Where exactly that delineation occurs is still up in the air, but
southwestern Mississippi could be the launch pad, or it could
have a fairly substantial severe threat this evening.

Regarding the heavy rain threat, similar to the severe threat,
the greatest threat currently appears to be just north of the
local area, but any shift to the south would put some of the
heavier rain into portions of southwestern Mississippi. Once again
with the moderate risk area basically ending at the forecast area
border, will need to monitor trends closely as the flash flood
threat could increase quickly with a southward shift.

Generally speaking, forecast totals are in the 0.5-1 inch range
across SW MS and the Florida parishes, tapering to less than 0.1
inch across the south shore through tonight. However, any
thunderstorms will be capable of producing higher rain rates and
totals that could quickly lead to ponding of water in low lying
and poor drainage areas.

The front will stall near the coast by tomorrow morning, with
continued scattered showers and storms in the morning. As daytime
heating destabilizes the atmosphere once again, expect showers to
increase in coverage during the afternoon hours, with a few
thunderstorms mixed in as well. Severe threat looks fairly limited
tomorrow as the favorable jet dynamics move off to the northeast.

Expect similar or more active conditions on Friday with the front
still stalled near the coast and another fast-moving upper
disturbance racing through the middle Mississippi Valley to
enhance convective coverage.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 124 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

Biggest concern in the longer term forecast continues to be a
rather vigorous disturbance moving out of northern Mexico
northeastward across the local area late Saturday into Sunday
followed by yet another disturbance crossing the area late Sunday
into Monday. Timing and intensity of these disturbances remains a
bit uncertain at this time, but they'll both result in continued
active weather across the Gulf South. Am generally carrying high
end chance to likely POPs both Saturday and Sunday as a result of
these disturbances. Severe and heavy rain potential will somewhat
come down to timing and whether the bulk of the showers/storms
are able to take advantage of daytime instability. For now, stay
tuned.

The late Sunday disturbance should push a surface front into the
Gulf with high pressure building into the area in its wake. This
would mark an end to the current active pattern for at least a
couple days as the mid/upper high suppresses convection in the
wake of the front.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 659 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

Ceilings IFR at KGPT, MVFR at KBTR and KHUM, VFR elsewhere at
issuance time. Trend will be toward MVFR ceilings with occasional
IFR conditions after about 09z. Main threats of TSRA in the near
term will be at KMCB, and potentially at KBTR. Elsewhere, just
scattered SHRA. Moisture levels are significant enough that
widespread MVFR ceilings are anticipated during the daytime hours
tomorrow. No synoptic scale forcing apparent for development of
organized convection during the day on Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 124 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

Southerly winds will continue for the coastal waters today,
generally around 10 to 15 knots. A few spots could get above 15
knots so opted to put small craft exercise caution headlines for
interior lakes and sounds. A few spots in the outer coastal waters
could technically reach at or above 15 knots briefly but it only is
for a rather short window. Winds will then become more light and
variable as a weak front stalls at or near the coast Thursday. This
front will dissipate around Friday and onshore winds will return.
There will be daily chances of showers and storms starting Wednesday
through the rest of the week. Any of the stronger storms could cause
locally higher winds and waves/seas, along with potential for
waterspouts.

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...DM
LONG TERM....DM
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...DM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
624 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0554 PM     Hail             1 NNE Tylertown         31.13N 90.14W
05/06/2026  M1.50 Inch       Walthall           MS   Public

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
626 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0554 PM     Hail             2 NW Tylertown          31.13N 90.17W
05/06/2026  E1.25 Inch       Walthall           MS   Public

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
833 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     Lightning        Tylertown               31.11N 90.14W
05/06/2026                   Walthall           MS   Public

            House fire reported as started by lightning
            strike.

&&

HRL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
856 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

MSZ068-070300-
Wilkinson MS-
856 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF WILKINSON COUNTY
THROUGH 1000 PM CDT
...

At 855 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Deer Park to near Black Hawk. Movement was
east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Woodville, Fort Adams, Dolorosa, and Crosby.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

If on or near marine areas, get out of the water and move indoors or
inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to 10 miles from
the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you are close
enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter now! Do not be
caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for southern
Mississippi.

&&

LAT...LON 3135 9121 3132 9110 3128 9106 3112 9106
      3108 9159 3111 9162 3113 9163 3124 9156
      3122 9151 3124 9148 3128 9149 3132 9146
      3132 9142 3136 9130 3137 9122
TIME...MOT...LOC 0155Z 258DEG 32KT 3138 9157 3121 9171

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

KLG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
941 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

MSZ068-069-070315-
Wilkinson MS-Amite MS-
941 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WILKINSON AND NORTHWESTERN AMITE COUNTIES THROUGH 1015 PM CDT
...

At 940 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Garden City to near Woodville. Movement
was east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Gloster and Crosby.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Persons in campgrounds should consider seeking sturdy shelter until
these storms pass.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for southern
Mississippi.

&&

LAT...LON 3135 9070 3111 9093 3111 9123 3132 9109
      3134 9106 3133 9106 3133 9103 3135 9102
      3133 9099 3135 9098
TIME...MOT...LOC 0240Z 268DEG 35KT 3133 9105 3116 9126

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

KLG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1006 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

MSZ069-070-070345-
Pike MS-Amite MS-
1006 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN PIKE AND
NORTHEASTERN AMITE COUNTIES THROUGH 1045 PM CDT
...

At 1006 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Smithdale to near Gloster. Movement was
east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Mccomb, Liberty, Summit, and Smithdale.

This includes Interstate 55 in Mississippi between mile markers 13
and 24.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for southern
Mississippi.

&&

LAT...LON 3135 9027 3115 9052 3111 9061 3111 9093
      3135 9070
TIME...MOT...LOC 0306Z 265DEG 31KT 3136 9070 3118 9098

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

KLG